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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Alcon's 2005/2006 Election Projection Thread - Governors (search mode)
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Author Topic: Alcon's 2005/2006 Election Projection Thread - Governors  (Read 10318 times)
True Federalist
Ernest
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« on: May 24, 2005, 06:16:13 pm »

South Carolina
Outlook: Strong Republican
It's not that Governor Mark Sanford is ultra-popular in South Carolina (although he has a respectable approval rating about 20 percentage points higher than his disapproval). It's more that Sanford is "popular enough" and the Democratic Party in the Palmetto State is dead in the water. Everyone who has been mentioned as a potential nominee would be trivial for Sanford, who may be destined for a Presidential campaign. The only thing keeping this from a safe designation is Sanford's previously mentioned approval ratings that are, while excellent, lower than what they usually are for an incumbent regarded as this safe.

I agree with you that this is a Strong, but not Safe Republican Seat.  I would however mention that Sanford's weakness stems in part from infighting with Assembly Republicans.  It'll be a little easier to handicap this race in a couple of weeks when the General Assembly session is over.  State Senator Tommy Moore is the leading Democratic contender and is likely to prove capable enough to derail Sanford's Presidential possibilities, even if Sanford is re-elected.  Another possibility of how Sanford's hopes may be dashed is who ends up being elected as Lt. Gov.  Incumbent Andre Bauer is lightly enough regarded that his re-election is less probable than Sanford's.  If Sanford has a Democrat Lt. Gov., he will likely be unable to gain the necessary support for a Presidential run.
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2005, 07:29:17 am »

The only reason, in fact, Sanford is even somewhat vulnerable is that he has became known for fighting with the Republican-controlled state senate, which has somewhat perturbed many South Carolinians.

Make that the General Assembly since he’s been able to irk both houses, not just the Senate.  The media here are on full alert for Sanford's latest stunt, as the Assembly is in the middle of looking at his 163 line-item vetoes on the budget, and as usual, overriding most of them.  (The House has voted to override 54 of the 60 it looked at yesterday.)  About the only thing last year's stunt with Pork and Barrel has accomplished is that the Assembly isn't rushing thru Sanford's vetoes in under two hours as they did last year.
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