Virginia
Outlook: Weak Lean Republican (pick-up)
Virginia is unique in its limiting of all over its Governors to one term, which makes gubernatoral races in the Old Dominion something to see. Popular outgoing Democrat Mark Warner managed to get elected as a tax-cutting centrist, and any Democrat looking to take the office will naturally need to make themselves look very moderate very quickly.
Lt. Governor Tim Kaine is the Democrat's natural nominee and is challenging former Republican state Attorney General Jerry Kilgore. Even with Warner's generally positive legacy, Kilgore still seems to have a small advantage in this race. A May 2005 Survey USA poll gives Kilgore a four point advantage over Kaine, but with nearly half a year to go, that's not anywhere near a comfortable lead.
Another possible GOP spoiler is independent candidates. State Senator Russ Potts, a Republican running as an independent, already has ballot access. He could be a major thorn in the side of Kilgore, but the Republicans could easily point out that Potts is in many ways more liberal than conservative. It could very much matter what kind of voters are attracted by Potts come November.
Another possible conservative spoiler running as an independent is George Fitch, mayor of the wealthy, conservative town of Warrenton. He hasn't yet gained ballot access, but he seems to be running heavily on an anti-big government platform, which could attract an entirely different segment of the Republican Party than Potts. He isn't receiving much media attention, but even a showing of 1% could be a major factor in the election.
Good analysis Alcon.
I would dispute Warner's stance as a tax-cutter, as one of the things he is best known for in the state is his tax increase last year. However he is very popular in this state and is generally regarded as being fairly centrist.
A couple other things:
Kilgore and Kaine have both positioned themselves as pro-second amendment (a big issue for voters in the Southwest) and both have remarked about the rising property taxes (a big issue for voters in Northern Virginia). So far, neither candidate has distinguished himself.
A couple of points about Russ Potts:
He's been abandoned by the Republican party all throughout the state, and Republicans in the Virginia state Senate tried to get his positions on various committees stripped (they failed however). The local Republican organizations in his Senate district (Potts is my state Senator...something I'm not proud of) have expelled Potts from the Republican party, I believe.
Anyway, there's some of my thoughts. Great analysis however
