Oregon
Outlook: Weak Lean Democrat
With an eighteen point approval deficit, Democratic incumbent Ted Kulongowski is in trouble even if the Oregon Republican Party isn't able to find themselves a good candidate. And lately, with the Oregon GOP as it is, that doesn't seem too unlikely. So far the best challenger is Kevin Mannix, the state party chair who lost to Kulongowski in 2002 by a small margin. Another less likely option is attorney Ron Saxton.
Voters fatigued by Kulongowski may still vote for him, though, against a candidate they have previously rejected in an open-seat election. Mannix is not all that popular, though, and Oregon voters may go with the option they know best come 2006. Until the race develops fully, this Democratic-leaning state is likely to have a slant toward a Democratic incumbent, even an unpopular one, as long as all of the challengers are weak candidates.
It's
Kulongoski (sorry, but I had to point that out
). The rest of the analysis is good.
