You're wrong about Minnesota. Pawlenty will have a serious challenger, it's basically already been confirmed to be Attorney General Mike Hatch. And he was caught in some scandals awhile ago, so saying a scandal is so unlikely is incorrect.
I'd like to echo BRTD (?!?) and say that, if Mike Hatch ran, he'd at least move Minnesota to 'Lean Republican', if not 'Weak Lean Republican' or even 'Toss-up'. It's hard to find someone in Minnesota who'd say something bad about him; he's generally quite liked here, due to his numerous investigations into and decisions against large corporations (especially medical companies, IIRC).