Alcon's 2005/2006 Election Projection Thread - Governors

[Alcon]

I'd like to mention that I'm keeping track of new polls. So far no designations have changed.

[Palefire]

Damn, thanks for all the effort Alcon, I enjoyed reading that.

[Alcon]

Damn, thanks for all the effort Alcon, I enjoyed reading that.

Glad you enjoyed it.

Updated New Jersey; call remains the same.

[jimrtex]

Texas
Outlook: Strong Lean Republican
Texas may be one of the most Republican states in the Union, but that hasn't much helped incumbent Rick Perry. He has managed to accumulate a 10-point disapproval rating and a major movement for Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson, who is an extremely popular figure in Texas politics, to replace him. I tend to think that even Perry would probably be able to defeat even a good Democrat solely because of Texas' Republicanness, but there's a chance of an upset. On the other hand, Hutchinson would likely beat any challenger to a pulp.

Texas Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn (ex-Rylander) is expected to announce for Governor this weekend.   Ag Commissioner Susan Combs annonce for the Comptroller position a couple of weeks ago.  Hutchison is expected to make a decision after the current legislative process is completed (the legislative session is over, but it is still in the period where Perry can sign or veto legislation passed at the end of the session).

[Alcon]

Bumped to remind myself to work on Texas.

[MHS2002]

Some updates on the Virginia Gubernational Race:

Kilgore defeated Fitch in the Republican primary this past Tuesday. As far as I know, Fitch's campaign is over.

Also, Potts will be on the ballot.

[Sam Spade]

Bumped to remind myself to work on Texas.

Until a decent Democrat gets into the race (which may or may not happen, and Chris Bell is not a strong Democrat), you should bump Texas to strong Republican, regardless whether its Strayhorn or Perry.

[Alcon]

Texas updated to Strong Republican.

[Alcon]

Florida coming up shortly.

[Alcon]

Previous Florida:

Florida
Outlook: Lean Republican
After taking a hit on the Terri Schiavo case, retiring Governor Jeb Bush is not as popular as he used to be, but he's not running, so Florida is likely to return to a Republican-leaning state in an open seat election.

There are three major Republican nominees: Attorney General Charlie Crist and state CFO Tom Gallagher are in a highly competitive battle, with Lt. Governor Toni Jennings not far behind. The Democrats have the lesser-known Congressman Jim Davis and party Chairman Scott Maddox.

Although the primary could hurt the GOP candidate, it's hard to see many situations that would not result in a Republican advantage come election time.

Update:

Florida
Outlook: Strong Lean Republican
After taking a hit on the Terri Schiavo case, retiring Governor Jeb Bush is not as popular as he used to be, but he's not running, so Florida is likely to return to a Republican-leaning state in an open seat election.

There are three major Republican nominees: Attorney General Charlie Crist and state CFO Tom Gallagher are in a highly competitive battle, with Lt. Governor Toni Jennings not far behind. The Democrats have the lesser-known Congressman Jim Davis and party Chairman Scott Maddox.

Although the primary could hurt the GOP candidate, it's hard to see many situations that would not result in a Republican advantage come election time, and polling indicates that the GOP has a very large initial lead.

[Ben Meyers]

Toni Jennings announced she wasn't running for Governor in Florida.

I'd probably move the race to lean, down from strong lean.  Davis is most likely to be the nominee, and he is very popular - the moderate type of Democrat who can get elected in Florida.

If Davis prevails early, and the GOP primary gets nasty, I'd suggest moving it down to Weak Lean or Tossup.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Alcon,

Thanks for your posting.

The point in so many of the races is that there is at this time no national trend in the Governors races (unless you include a general ennui with many incumbent Govenors).

[No more McShame]

Alcon,

Thanks for your posting.

The point in so many of the races is that there is at this time no national trend in the Governors races (unless you include a general ennui with many incumbent Govenors).

Unfortunately, this doesn't include ours....   YET

[ilikeverin]

You're wrong about Minnesota. Pawlenty will have a serious challenger, it's basically already been confirmed to be Attorney General Mike Hatch. And he was caught in some scandals awhile ago, so saying a scandal is so unlikely is incorrect.

I'd like to echo BRTD (?!?) and say that, if Mike Hatch ran, he'd at least move Minnesota to 'Lean Republican', if not 'Weak Lean Republican' or even 'Toss-up'.  It's hard to find someone in Minnesota who'd say something bad about him; he's generally quite liked here, due to his numerous investigations into and decisions against large corporations (especially medical companies, IIRC).

[MasterJedi]

You have any polls on Doyle's approval ratings Alcon? Thanks if you do.

[Alcon]

No New Jersey?  Even with the election coming up?

It's the first one listed under the 2005 section.

You have any polls on Doyle's approval ratings Alcon? Thanks if you do.

Beyond the SurveyUSA poll, afraid not...

[Alcon]

Updated California from Lean Republican to Toss-Up/Democrat (pick-up).  Before people complain, consider that:

1. I'm going on what has become a dried-up stream of polling.
2. I think this is where the race is, but I think it will probably go back into Schwarzenegger's column before 2006.

Old summary:

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And the new update:

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[ilikeverin]

You're wrong about Minnesota. Pawlenty will have a serious challenger, it's basically already been confirmed to be Attorney General Mike Hatch. And he was caught in some scandals awhile ago, so saying a scandal is so unlikely is incorrect.

I'd like to echo BRTD (?!?) and say that, if Mike Hatch ran, he'd at least move Minnesota to 'Lean Republican', if not 'Weak Lean Republican' or even 'Toss-up'. It's hard to find someone in Minnesota who'd say something bad about him; he's generally quite liked here, due to his numerous investigations into and decisions against large corporations (especially medical companies, IIRC).

Update:  Minnesota may go into a partial government shutdown if our legislature does not pass a budget.  Now we'll have to see who people blame it on: the Democrats or the Republicans.

[Alcon]

Update on Virginia - going from Weak Lean Republican to Lean Republican.  Ergo, this seat remains listed as a pick-up.  Previous entry:

Virginia
Outlook: Weak Lean Republican (pick-up)
Virginia is unique in its limiting of all over its Governors to one term, which makes gubernatoral races in the Old Dominion something to see. Popular outgoing Democrat Mark Warner managed to get elected as a likeable centrist, and any Democrat looking to take the office will naturally need to make themselves look very moderate very quickly.

Lt. Governor Tim Kaine is the Democrat's natural nominee and is challenging former Republican state Attorney General Jerry Kilgore. Even with Warner's generally positive legacy, Kilgore still seems to have a small advantage in this race. A May 2005 Survey USA poll gives Kilgore a four point advantage over Kaine, but with nearly half a year to go, that's not anywhere near a comfortable lead.

Another possible GOP spoiler is independent candidates. State Senator Russ Potts, a Republican running as an independent, already has ballot access. He could be a major thorn in the side of Kilgore, but the Republicans could easily point out that Potts is in many ways more liberal than conservative. It could very much matter what kind of voters are attracted by Potts come November.

Another possible conservative spoiler running as an independent is George Fitch, mayor of the wealthy, conservative town of Warrenton. He hasn't yet gained ballot access, but he seems to be running heavily on an anti-big government platform, which could attract an entirely different segment of the Republican Party than Potts. He isn't receiving much media attention, but even a showing of 1% could be a major factor in the election.

New entry:

Virginia
Outlook: Lean Republican (pick-up)
Virginia is unique in its limiting of all over its Governors to one term, which makes gubernatoral races in the Old Dominion something to see. Popular outgoing Democrat Mark Warner managed to get elected as a likeable centrist, and any Democrat looking to take the office will naturally need to make themselves look very moderate very quickly.

Lt. Governor Tim Kaine is the Democrat's natural nominee and is challenging former Republican state Attorney General Jerry Kilgore. Even with Warner's generally positive legacy, Kilgore still seems to have a small advantage in this race. Recent polls show Kilgore ahead of Kaine by nearly ten points, with his lead only increasing.

Another possible GOP spoiler is independent candidates. State Senator Russ Potts, a Republican running as an independent, already has ballot access. He could be a major thorn in the side of Kilgore, but the Republicans could easily point out that Potts is in many ways more liberal than conservative. It could very much matter what kind of voters are attracted by Potts come November.

Another possible conservative spoiler running as an independent is George Fitch, mayor of the wealthy, conservative town of Warrenton. He hasn't yet gained ballot access, but he seems to be running heavily on an anti-big government platform, which could attract an entirely different segment of the Republican Party than Potts. He isn't receiving much media attention, but even a showing of 1% could be a major factor in the election if it becomes closer. Still, though, in the absence of Mark Warner, it appears that the Republicans are likely to pick up the seat, and the race would need to be much closer for Potts and Fitch to matter.

[MHS2002]

I think Fitch is done campaigning for this year, after losing to Kilgore in the Republican primary this June.

[Alcon]

Bump for Ohio lovin'.

Also a personal reminder to myself to clean up the Virginia write-up to focus less on independent candidates as their polling continues to drop.