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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virgini)
  Alcon's 2005/2006 Election Projection Thread - Governors
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Author Topic: Alcon's 2005/2006 Election Projection Thread - Governors  (Read 10459 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #25 on: May 24, 2005, 07:24:03 pm »
« edited: June 13, 2005, 06:14:33 pm by Alcon »

Thanks, Ernest. I was trying to remember to include that about the in-bickering, but forgot by the time I got to South Carolina. I also updated Iowa after seeing a semi-recent poll giving Nussle a decent advantage. Finally, I'm working on a web site for this all.

Update post size restriction spill-over:

Wisconsin
Outlook: Lean Democrat
incumbent Democrat Jim Doyle is not very popular in Wisconsin, but probably is not unpopular enough to be defeated. Former GOP Governor Tommy Thompson would probably beat him, but a run from Thompson is not all that likely. Milwaukee County exec Scott Walker and Congressman Mark Green will probably end up battling for the Republican nomination. Neither is very likely to win, but an upset is not out of the question in this very politically divided state.

Wyoming
Outlook: Strong Lean Democrat
Even if you're a Republican, you have to hand it to Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal of Wyoming. In a state that gave George W. Bush 69 percent of its vote, Freudenthal squeaked by to win an open-seat election in one of the reddest states out there. And, now, a Survey USA poll ranks him as the third most popular Governor in the nation, with a 67% approval rating (20% disapproval). Those numbers are astounding for a Democrat in Wyoming, and while an upset is a remote possibility (it's unlikely he will get 67% of the vote in 2006), this is about as safe as a Democrat in Wyoming can possibly ever get, and probably more safe that anyone would ever have expected. No Republican challengers have even yet emerged.
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Lt. Gov. Immy
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« Reply #26 on: May 25, 2005, 12:56:18 am »

Idaho
Outlook: Safe Republican
Fairly popular Republican Governor Dick Kempthorne is out, leaving unfortunately-named Congressman Butch Otter as his likely successor. Otter, elected with 70% in his northern Idaho district in 2004, is probably more threatened by jokes about his full name ("Butch" is a nickname, by the way - his real name is Clement Leroy Otter) than anyone the Democrats can put out. Although Otter is on the record as being against the PATRIOT Act, he's unlikely to face a significant primary challenge.

Though I agree with you that Otter is the front-runner, Lt. Governor Jim "Prince of Darkness" Risch is also running.  He spent thousands of dollars in the 2002 primary for that position, ousting the incumbent Republican.  Everyone knows he has his eyes on the Governorship.

Also, the Democrats are running 02 nominee Jerry Brady.  He came within 10 or so of Kempthorne then, but that was a good year for Idaho Democrats and I don't expect him to do any better.
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Ernest
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« Reply #27 on: May 25, 2005, 07:29:17 am »

The only reason, in fact, Sanford is even somewhat vulnerable is that he has became known for fighting with the Republican-controlled state senate, which has somewhat perturbed many South Carolinians.

Make that the General Assembly since hes been able to irk both houses, not just the Senate.  The media here are on full alert for Sanford's latest stunt, as the Assembly is in the middle of looking at his 163 line-item vetoes on the budget, and as usual, overriding most of them.  (The House has voted to override 54 of the 60 it looked at yesterday.)  About the only thing last year's stunt with Pork and Barrel has accomplished is that the Assembly isn't rushing thru Sanford's vetoes in under two hours as they did last year.
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Virginia Yellow Dog
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« Reply #28 on: May 25, 2005, 04:51:22 pm »

nice work, Alcon.  so, when are you planning to do the same for the Senate races next year? 
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Alcon
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« Reply #29 on: May 25, 2005, 05:34:09 pm »

nice work, Alcon.  so, when are you planning to do the same for the Senate races next year? 

Yes. I may work on that over the weekend. It's not quite as interesting, but there's some very noteworthy seats.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #30 on: May 25, 2005, 06:43:35 pm »

Wisconsin
Outlook: Lean Democrat
incumbent Democrat Jim Doyle is not very popular in Wisconsin, but probably is not unpopular enough to be defeated. Former GOP Governor Tommy Thompson would probably beat him, but a run from Thompson is not all that likely. Milwaukee County exec Scott Walker and Congressman Mark Green will probably end up battling for the Republican nomination. Neither is very likely to win, but an upset is not out of the question in this very politically divided state.

When even the teachers are starting to desert Doyle you know there's something wrong. He will have a hard time winning. Scott Walker is really popular in my area and he has a somehwhat good chance of winning if he gets the nomination.
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Alcon
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« Reply #31 on: May 25, 2005, 08:01:13 pm »

Wisconsin
Outlook: Lean Democrat
incumbent Democrat Jim Doyle is not very popular in Wisconsin, but probably is not unpopular enough to be defeated. Former GOP Governor Tommy Thompson would probably beat him, but a run from Thompson is not all that likely. Milwaukee County exec Scott Walker and Congressman Mark Green will probably end up battling for the Republican nomination. Neither is very likely to win, but an upset is not out of the question in this very politically divided state.

When even the teachers are starting to desert Doyle you know there's something wrong. He will have a hard time winning. Scott Walker is really popular in my area and he has a somehwhat good chance of winning if he gets the nomination.

The only poll on the race I've seen indicates Doyle is liked somewhat, but most people want a "fresh face." Still, I'd rather see a poll that has Walker go head-to-head with Doyle before announcing a closer designation. This one is very much on the line between Lean and Weak Lean, though. I may simply change my mind even if no new data is released.
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jfern
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« Reply #32 on: May 25, 2005, 08:05:10 pm »

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Easy, point out that he's an economic right-winger who takes lots of money from corrupt companies, and recites dumb one liners, and makes stupid comments like those in support of the border vigilanetes.
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Alcon
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« Reply #33 on: May 25, 2005, 08:26:17 pm »

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Easy, point out that he's an economic right-winger who takes lots of money from corrupt companies, and recites dumb one liners, and makes stupid comments like those in support of the border vigilanetes.

I doubt that's really sufficient to get someone elected. The people of California pretty much already knew they were electing someone who makes stupid comments. The two comments you said are pretty much standard Democratic complaints, so I doubt they will work all that great. People seem less bothered with Schwarzenegger's political leans than they do with the fact he is Schwarzenegger - which is exactly, weirdly, what got him elected.
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SMOT
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« Reply #34 on: May 26, 2005, 06:46:08 pm »

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Doyle has desent ratings, about 60%, at least that is what the liberal milwaukee journal says. In that same report, Bush only got about 40%, that is saying something. But Scott Walker will likely win, and Doyle will beat him. Thompson would win again by far.
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Alcon
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« Reply #35 on: May 26, 2005, 08:01:34 pm »

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Doyle has desent ratings, about 60%, at least that is what the liberal milwaukee journal says. In that same report, Bush only got about 40%, that is saying something. But Scott Walker will likely win, and Doyle will beat him. Thompson would win again by far.

The poll I have (Survey USA, 5/10/05) has him 49-41 disapprove.
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King
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« Reply #36 on: May 27, 2005, 11:35:53 pm »

Iowa
Outlook: Weak Lean Republican (pick-up)
Iowa is the exception to the rule, a farming state that still retains many elements of its past fierce progressivism intact. Retiring Governor Tom Vilsack, a Democrat, is making way for what will probably be an extremely competitive race between probable GOP nominee Congressman Jim Nussle and a range of Democratic challengers, the most likely nominee being Secretary of State Chet Culver. This is anybody's race, and the Republicans stand an excellent chance of taking the state's Governorship. Early polling indicates that Nussle has the edge against Culver, though.

Culver is rumored to be dropping out and instead seeking re-election for his much safer seat of Secretary of State.
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King
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« Reply #37 on: May 27, 2005, 11:50:42 pm »

If Tommy Thompson doesn't run for Governor, what is the chance of his Libertarian brother Ed running?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #38 on: May 28, 2005, 04:40:46 am »

Colorado
Outlook: Weak Lean Republican
Term limits have ousted popular Republican Bill Owens from the Colorado Governor's seat and produced yet another competitive open-seat race in a state that is becoming more competitive on the state and national level.

Congressman Bob Beauprez, a Republican representing the northern Denver suburbs, is the likely GOP nominee against the slightly less solidified Democratic challenger, Denver mayor John Hickenlooper. In a state where suburbs are an important and Republican-leaning voting block, one initially has to give Beauprez the advantage, albeit a narrow one.

Now, if freshman Senator Ken Salazar runs, which is rumoured, th Democrats might have a small advantage here. Keep an eye on this one.
Beauprez's district is actually western and eastern suburbs, connected by an area of northern suburbs.   Being from Denver would be a negative in most of the state.  And I'd think there would be a backlash for a senator running for governor 2 years into his first term. 
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King
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« Reply #39 on: May 28, 2005, 12:45:43 pm »

Pete Coors for Governor! Tongue
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No more McShame
FuturePrez R-AZ
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« Reply #40 on: May 28, 2005, 03:55:10 pm »


Great, just what Colorado needs.  A Democratic governor.
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Alcon
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« Reply #41 on: May 28, 2005, 03:58:28 pm »


Great, just what Colorado needs. A Democratic governor.

Last time I checked, Pete wasn't exactly a Democrat. Wink
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jfern
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« Reply #42 on: May 28, 2005, 04:51:47 pm »

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Easy, point out that he's an economic right-winger who takes lots of money from corrupt companies, and recites dumb one liners, and makes stupid comments like those in support of the border vigilanetes.

I doubt that's really sufficient to get someone elected. The people of California pretty much already knew they were electing someone who makes stupid comments. The two comments you said are pretty much standard Democratic complaints, so I doubt they will work all that great. People seem less bothered with Schwarzenegger's political leans than they do with the fact he is Schwarzenegger - which is exactly, weirdly, what got him elected.

Some people believed him when he ran as not being a politician in the recall election. That's not going to work in 2006. A lot of people are pissed at him doing stupid things like digging potholes to fill in for photo ops.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/05/27/MNG9UCVOCH1.DTL


Ummm, Kerry won by 10 points (which is worse than Gore and Clinton did), and Boxer won by 20 points, so it's not like the Democratic nominee needs any votes from people who never vote Democrat.

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Q
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« Reply #43 on: May 28, 2005, 05:30:02 pm »


Great, just what Colorado needs.  A Democratic governor.

Last time I checked, Pete wasn't exactly a Democrat. Wink

... or another Coors candidacy would result in a Democrat winning.
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Cowboy
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« Reply #44 on: May 28, 2005, 10:24:52 pm »

Nice to see what you wrote about WY. Hope you are  right, i'm a bit worried that freudenthal might lose to a strong goper even if he is set up very well...
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Gabu
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« Reply #45 on: May 28, 2005, 11:00:35 pm »

Nice to see what you wrote about WY. Hope you are  right, i'm a bit worried that freudenthal might lose to a strong goper even if he is set up very well...

How did Freudenthal get elected statewide, anyway?  I find the thought of a Democrat being elected statewide in Wyoming to be quite the shock. Smiley
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Cowboy
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« Reply #46 on: May 28, 2005, 11:07:43 pm »

Nice to see what you wrote about WY. Hope you are right, i'm a bit worried that freudenthal might lose to a strong goper even if he is set up very well...

How did Freudenthal get elected statewide, anyway? I find the thought of a Democrat being elected statewide in Wyoming to be quite the shock. Smiley

It was for me a very happy shock. Basically he ran as a conservative dem (which he) even though he is pro-choice and all. He ran on his positions - highlighting his conservative ones but not backing down from his liberal ones.

He won respect. He didn't throw mud. It's not hard to campaign here - very cheap even to knock on everyone's door. Freudenthal got elected without the help of any scandals or anything. On his own merits. Very cool guy. Smiley
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Cashcow
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« Reply #47 on: May 28, 2005, 11:10:06 pm »

So basically we can infer that he's a conservative, pro-choice Democrat. Sounds like my kind of guy. Smiley
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Cowboy
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« Reply #48 on: May 28, 2005, 11:14:49 pm »

So basically we can infer that he's a conservative, pro-choice Democrat. Sounds like my kind of guy. Smiley

Conservative...maybe. Id say moderate. Conservative for a dem, butnot conservative overall. LIBERAL for wyoming. Heres a list:

http://www.vote-smart.org/npat.php?can_id=MWY35199

He has standard stuff like no civil unions..he has to be elected here after all. He is brave in that in makes his positions very public...normally a kiss of death for a dem in wyoming getting elected nonpartisanly, but the wyo voters respect him a lot for it.

Good guy, very good guy.
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Gabu
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« Reply #49 on: May 28, 2005, 11:27:02 pm »

Interesting... the more I read about him, the more I like him, much like Schweitzer in Montana.
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