New NJ Governor's Poll

[Keystone Phil]

Corzine is so popular! 42% in one, 44% in another. He's got this thing locked up! 

[Keystone Phil]

Corzine is still obviously the favorite but I don't see him winning the General by more than six points. This is not locked up.

[Keystone Phil]

Forrester and Schundler are much further right than the state is comfortable with. If the GOP loses its their own fault for not nominating a moderate like Whitman.

Forrester was on his way to the U.S. Senate in 2002 until the Dems pulled their switch and he still did fairly well considering that he ran against one of the most popular Dems in the state. Even if he loses this year, it won't be by more than six points.

[Keystone Phil]

Just released today....

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Forrester - 45%
Schundler - 29%

[Keystone Phil]

Just released today....

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Forrester - 45%
Schundler - 29%

Ouch, what happened to the Schundler campaign?

Doug Forrester is what happened. Schundler was a disaster in 2001 and it's my guess that many NJ Republicans are angry about what happened to Forrester in the 2002 Senate race so he remains pretty popular.

[Keystone Phil]

Just released today....

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Forrester - 45%
Schundler - 29%

Ouch, what happened to the Schundler campaign?

Doug Forrester is what happened. Schundler was a disaster in 2001 and it's my guess that many NJ Republicans are angry about what happened to Forrester in the 2002 Senate race so he remains pretty popular.

True but it didn't seem like that long ago that Forrester was only ahead of Schundler by 5-8 pts.  Now it's 16.  Is Schundler just that bad?

The debates help Forrester. Though I've only heard the closing arguments of a few debates, from what I hear, Forrester destroys everyone else. He comes across as the most informed candidate and that's not hard in this race. There are some jokes running. Forrester vs. Schundler becomes Forrester vs. pack of jokes. Schundler is being thrown in with the pack of jokes because of how well Forrester does. In fact, there's a debate on right now. Unfortunatley, I don't get the channel (though I could have sworn I did). I'm betting Forrester is crushing them again. This debate is really the last chance for Schundler to make this thing somewhat close again.

[Keystone Phil]

My prediction for the 2005 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Forrester - 43%
Schundler - 32%
Murphy - 7%
Schroeder - 7%
DiGaetanto - 5%
Lonegan - 5%
Caliguire - 1%

[Keystone Phil]

A bit of news concerning Jon Corzine's Victory party on June 7th...

From PoliticsNJ: Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell will be the guest speaker at an election night victory party for Jon Corzine at the East Brunswick Hilton on Tuesday night.

[Keystone Phil]

That debate was, as usual, a joke. Forrester stays above the fray as Schundler is the target of Lonegan and Murphy. I really can't wait until Tuesday night when this is all over.

[Keystone Phil]

I just watched the full Gubernatorial debate (I only watched parts this morning) and I'm just embarrassed. Now the 2004 Democratic Presidential candidates still win the award for the greatest political circus in the U.S. but these NJ GOP are pretty close.

As I stated earlier, Forrester stayed above the fray, hardly ever getting involved when everyone else was yelling at one another. No one on that set would admit it (expect Doug) but Forrester is going to win this thing and win it easily. In fact, when Schundler said he was going to win, he couldn't keep a straight face.

Lonegan, the candidate who is the biggest joke next to Schroeder, kept picking on everyone. He was playing Al Gore with all the sighs. His main target, however, was John Murphy. At one point, Murphy actually turned and told him "Steve, you are one of the rudest people I've ever met." after Lonegan interrupted Murphy with "That's not an answer."

Schundler, who is hoping for a political miracle, seemed to be on the defense throughout the whole debate. If he wanted to pull off a miracle, this was his last chance. It's not happening, Bret.

The most surprising part was that the candidate who will do the worst this Tuesday - Todd Caliguire - seemed to have the most time to speak. Caliguire has 1-2% in most polls. Paul DiGaetano, who somewhere around fifth place, looked like he gave up midway through the debate.

But the most fitting part of the debate was when one of the questioners (CBS 3's Larry Mendte) quoted Stewart Rothenberg. Rothenberg commented that no one was paying attention to the NJ GOP Primary because it wasn't a race. It was a mess. I couldn't agree with you more, Stew. The candidates said that the day after the vote everyone will unite. I hope they're not planning some big event with the media because no one wants to see this crew together again. Forrester standing in the center of a stage with the others all huddled around can only hurt.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.njdems.org/gopunity.php

That's all they've done. Pretty pathetic. Also, go to PoliticsNJ.com for a hilarious ad.

[Keystone Phil]

This can't be happening...

http://www.bret2005.com/pressreleases/?messageID=687

The Quinnipiac University poll released this morning shows the race for the Republican nomination for Governor has tightened to a statistical tie – Doug Forrester with 35 percent, Bret Schundler with 33 percent, with 5.4 percent margin of error. On June 1, a Quinnipiac poll showed the race at 40-29, with Doug Forrester in the lead.

How? How can this happen? If this is really the case, I guess tomorrow night will be more exciting (yet more nerve wracking) than I had imagined.

[Keystone Phil]

Thats a huge drop in just two days.

This is just crazy. While Schundler said it with a bit of a laugh during the debate, I still didn't understand how he could say he would win. He didn't perform well at all during the debate yet I doubt they were still conducting this yesterday morning so that's good news for Forrester. He has new ads out but I don't think they could help him out of the hole he was in. Something happened...I just don't know what it was...

[Keystone Phil]

There is some good news for Forrester...

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11376.xml?ReleaseID=741

3. Suppose Douglas Forrester and Bret Schundler were the only candidates running in the Republican primary for governor, for whom would you vote? If undecided: As of today, do you lean more to Forrester or Schundler?

* This table includes Leaners

 
                        Likely
                        Voters

Forrester               49%
Schundler               41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2
DK/NA                    7

 

[Keystone Phil]

Good news for Bret Schundler...

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL
Republican Primary
Likely Voters, including leaners
   
Doug Forrester -35%
Bret Schundler - 33%
John Murphy - 7%
Paul DiGaetano - 6%
Steve Lonegan - 5%
Bob Schroeder - 1%
Todd Caliguire - 1%

Quinnipiac: DEAD HEAT

Maybe you didn't notice that I already posted this? 

I'm worried but not too worried and I'm not changing my predictions because of this. I'd rather be completely wrong than just keep adjusting my predictions.

[Keystone Phil]

Only a fool would call one university poll a sign of a dead heat.  Schundler has done consistantly better in Quinnipiac polls than in others so this confirms Forrestor by about 5-7%.

I agree and disagree. Quinnipiac is one of the best polling institutes in the area. However, I'm still stratching my head as to how anyone can close that gap in such a short amount of time. I'm still alittle worried though.

[Keystone Phil]

How many voters watch the primary debates? 1%?

I don't know about that. It's become a real circus and people would probably watch for the entertainment.

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I think he'll still win without much trouble either but I'm still alittle worried.

[Keystone Phil]

STAR-LEDGER/ EAGLETON-RUTGERS POLL

Jon Corzine - 43%
Doug Forrester - 33%

Forrester shouldn't be in the 30s anymore so this isn't that great of news for his campaign. However, Corzine in the low 40s isn't good for the Dems.

[Keystone Phil]

New Rassmussen Poll:

Corzine 50, Forrester 38, Other 4

Link

Forrester needs to start going after those Independent voters stronger.

[Keystone Phil]

New Rassmussen Poll:

Corzine 50, Forrester 38, Other 4

Link

Forrester needs to start going after those Independent voters stronger.

Forrester needs Conservative voters:

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That's a factor but in the end, the conservatives of NJ will without a doubt be supporting Forrester over Corzine. Maybe he'll have to work on them a bit for turnout but the Independent vote is what will really matter the most.

[Keystone Phil]

Forrester needs Conservative voters:

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Ive been saying that all along.  Social conservatives are going to stay home.  They may not be the largest demographic in NJ, but in a close race they could be the deciding factor.

Social conservatives are not going to stay home when they have a chance to beat one of the most liberal Senators in the country.

[Keystone Phil]

By that same logic, social liberals are not going to stay home when they have a chance to beat one of the most conservative Senators in the country, Rick Santorum.

I never said they wouldn't go to the polls but they might not go for Casey. I think NJ conservatives are more willing to accept Forrester (who isn't really that close to the center) than PA liberals being willing to vote for Casey.

[Keystone Phil]

What would possibly bring them to believe that some third-party nut could beat Rick Santorum?

They don't believe a third party nut would beat him. It would be a very strong protest vote. Here's a situation when they see two social conservatives running and have no real choice. It's not the same as NJ. Forrester is not a RINO. Social conservatives there have a choice. He's not Schundler but he's more acceptable. Social liberals in PA aren't seeing it that way (or atleast aren't now). Do you remember all the outrage over the Dems asking Casey to run?

[Keystone Phil]

What would possibly bring them to believe that some third-party nut could beat Rick Santorum?

They don't believe a third party nut would beat him. It would be a very strong protest vote. Here's a situation when they see two social conservatives running and have no real choice. It's not the same as NJ. Forrester is not a RINO. Social conservatives there have a choice. He's not Schundler but he's more acceptable. Social liberals in PA aren't seeing it that way (or atleast aren't now). Do you remember all the outrage over the Dems asking Casey to run?

No, I don't really remember the outrage. I remember thousands upon thousands of social liberals cheering at the possibility of a Democratic victory.

Well then you weren't paying attention.

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I know liberal groups have much less influence that's why Santorum is going to point out that they're up here. If anything, they annoy Pennsylvanians.

Casey is not a social conservative like his father but on the issues we know his positions on like gay marriage and abortion, for example, Casey has defined himself in the past and even today, as a social conservative. When we begins to use MoveOn and the Deaniacs, his social conservativism (that would usually help) will be ignored.

[Keystone Phil]

Has he stated his stances on any other important issues? The Iraq War? Stem-cell research? Gay rights in general? Civil liberties (discrimination, Patriot Act, etc.)?

Iraq War - Not sure what he thinks.
Stem cell research - Same as above.
Gay rights - supports civil unions
Civil liberties - Not sure what he thinks