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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  New NJ Governor's Poll
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Author Topic: New NJ Governor's Poll  (Read 10399 times)
Sam Spade
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« Reply #25 on: June 01, 2005, 05:56:18 pm »

Forrester is pulling away in this primary and will win it fairly easily.

Corzine is still the odds-on favorite in this race, obviously, but out of the two Forrester is clearly the best candidate and could possibly get over 45%.

Winning is obviously a longshot for Forrester, though.
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Cubby
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« Reply #26 on: June 02, 2005, 03:18:23 pm »

I get some New York City radio stations where I live, and there have been a few ads over the past week, mostly anti-Schundler ones by the Forrester campaign. The one today was only about property taxes.

But I laughed when the guy said "Steve Forbes has approved Doug Forrester's plan..." Does Forbes live in NJ or something? I don't know why they'd say that.

 
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #27 on: June 02, 2005, 03:34:49 pm »

I get some New York City radio stations where I live, and there have been a few ads over the past week, mostly anti-Schundler ones by the Forrester campaign. The one today was only about property taxes.

But I laughed when the guy said "Steve Forbes has approved Doug Forrester's plan..." Does Forbes live in NJ or something? I don't know why they'd say that.

Forbes does live in New Jersey.
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Ben Meyers
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« Reply #28 on: June 02, 2005, 04:50:50 pm »

I have some family in New Jersey.  They live in a pretty wealthy area and most of the people there are supporting Forrester.
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MAS117
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« Reply #29 on: June 02, 2005, 09:01:54 pm »

My prediction for the 2005 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Forrester - 43%
Schundler - 32%
Murphy - 7%
Schroeder - 7%
DiGaetanto - 5%
Lonegan - 5%
Caliguire - 1%

My prediction for the 2005 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Doug Forrester - 43%
Bret Schundler - 35%
John Murphy - 8%
Steve Lonegan - 5%
Bob Schroeder - 3%
Paul DiGaetano - 3%
Todd Caligure - 3%

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #30 on: June 03, 2005, 04:40:43 pm »

A bit of news concerning Jon Corzine's Victory party on June 7th...

From PoliticsNJ: Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell will be the guest speaker at an election night victory party for Jon Corzine at the East Brunswick Hilton on Tuesday night.

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MAS117
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« Reply #31 on: June 03, 2005, 10:06:51 pm »
« Edited: June 06, 2005, 01:57:52 pm by Senator MAS117 »

2005 Democratic Governor Primary

Senator Jon S. Corzine - 97%
Other - 3%
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #32 on: June 05, 2005, 12:35:56 pm »

That debate was, as usual, a joke. Forrester stays above the fray as Schundler is the target of Lonegan and Murphy. I really can't wait until Tuesday night when this is all over.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #33 on: June 06, 2005, 01:27:49 am »

I just watched the full Gubernatorial debate (I only watched parts this morning) and I'm just embarrassed. Now the 2004 Democratic Presidential candidates still win the award for the greatest political circus in the U.S. but these NJ GOP are pretty close.

As I stated earlier, Forrester stayed above the fray, hardly ever getting involved when everyone else was yelling at one another. No one on that set would admit it (expect Doug) but Forrester is going to win this thing and win it easily. In fact, when Schundler said he was going to win, he couldn't keep a straight face.

Lonegan, the candidate who is the biggest joke next to Schroeder, kept picking on everyone. He was playing Al Gore with all the sighs. His main target, however, was John Murphy. At one point, Murphy actually turned and told him "Steve, you are one of the rudest people I've ever met." after Lonegan interrupted Murphy with "That's not an answer."

Schundler, who is hoping for a political miracle, seemed to be on the defense throughout the whole debate. If he wanted to pull off a miracle, this was his last chance. It's not happening, Bret.

The most surprising part was that the candidate who will do the worst this Tuesday - Todd Caliguire - seemed to have the most time to speak. Caliguire has 1-2% in most polls. Paul DiGaetano, who somewhere around fifth place, looked like he gave up midway through the debate.

But the most fitting part of the debate was when one of the questioners (CBS 3's Larry Mendte) quoted Stewart Rothenberg. Rothenberg commented that no one was paying attention to the NJ GOP Primary because it wasn't a race. It was a mess. I couldn't agree with you more, Stew. The candidates said that the day after the vote everyone will unite. I hope they're not planning some big event with the media because no one wants to see this crew together again. Forrester standing in the center of a stage with the others all huddled around can only hurt.
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angus
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« Reply #34 on: June 06, 2005, 07:49:39 am »

Been watching some TV over the last week, and I've noticed lots of NJ governor commercials.  Forrester's going negative.  Not necessairly on the dems, mostly on his opponents.  From what I've read, he will probably win.  At that, point Corzine will not have the luxury of staying positive.  Actually, he will, but probably won't.  I'm not cynical, but I am skeptical.  It's been a long time since I've heard a candidate say something like, "My opponent is a wise and kind man, and has many ideas, but I think mine are better, and I think you will too.  Here they are..."

As an aside, I see lots of Bloomberg commercials.  His are largely positive, I'll say.  I think I'm rooting for Bloomberg.  Seems to have a good record on education, jobs, business (at least from his ads), and so far he isn't attacking his opponent.  That's a plus.  But then it's probably just a matter of time.  Apparently the state legislature is meeting in Albany today to decide whether to commit a big chunk of money to a new stadium in midtown manhattan.  I think I'm for it.  So is Bloomberg, but I don't think it's an easy sell.
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nick
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« Reply #35 on: June 06, 2005, 10:07:42 am »

http://www.njdems.org/gopunity.php
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #36 on: June 06, 2005, 11:31:03 am »


That's all they've done. Pretty pathetic. Also, go to PoliticsNJ.com for a hilarious ad.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #37 on: June 06, 2005, 11:55:52 am »

This can't be happening...

http://www.bret2005.com/pressreleases/?messageID=687

The Quinnipiac University poll released this morning shows the race for the Republican nomination for Governor has tightened to a statistical tie – Doug Forrester with 35 percent, Bret Schundler with 33 percent, with 5.4 percent margin of error. On June 1, a Quinnipiac poll showed the race at 40-29, with Doug Forrester in the lead.

How? How can this happen? If this is really the case, I guess tomorrow night will be more exciting (yet more nerve wracking) than I had imagined.
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nick
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« Reply #38 on: June 06, 2005, 11:58:16 am »

Thats a huge drop in just two days.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #39 on: June 06, 2005, 12:01:09 pm »


This is just crazy. While Schundler said it with a bit of a laugh during the debate, I still didn't understand how he could say he would win. He didn't perform well at all during the debate yet I doubt they were still conducting this yesterday morning so that's good news for Forrester. He has new ads out but I don't think they could help him out of the hole he was in. Something happened...I just don't know what it was...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #40 on: June 06, 2005, 12:04:25 pm »

There is some good news for Forrester...

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11376.xml?ReleaseID=741

3. Suppose Douglas Forrester and Bret Schundler were the only candidates running in the Republican primary for governor, for whom would you vote? If undecided: As of today, do you lean more to Forrester or Schundler?

* This table includes Leaners

 
                        Likely
                        Voters

Forrester               49%
Schundler               41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2
DK/NA                    7

 
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MAS117
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« Reply #41 on: June 06, 2005, 01:56:35 pm »

Good news for Bret Schundler...

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL
Republican Primary
Likely Voters, including leaners

   
Doug Forrester -35%
Bret Schundler - 33%
John Murphy - 7%
Paul DiGaetano - 6%
Steve Lonegan - 5%
Bob Schroeder - 1%
Todd Caliguire - 1%

Quinnipiac: DEAD HEAT
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MAS117
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« Reply #42 on: June 06, 2005, 02:01:19 pm »
« Edited: June 06, 2005, 02:15:34 pm by Senator MAS117 »

Updated Prediction for the 2005 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Doug Forrester - 43%
Bret Schundler - 37%
John Murphy - 8%
Steve Lonegan - 5%
Paul DiGaetano - 4%
Bob Schroeder - 2%
Todd Caligure - 1%
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Hitchabrut
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« Reply #43 on: June 06, 2005, 02:11:39 pm »

Doug Forrester - 45%
Bret Schundler - 38%
John Murphy - 6%
Steve Lonegan - 4%
Paul DiGaetano - 3%
Bob Schroeder - 2%
Todd Caligure - 2%

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #44 on: June 06, 2005, 05:44:29 pm »

Good news for Bret Schundler...

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL
Republican Primary
Likely Voters, including leaners

   
Doug Forrester -35%
Bret Schundler - 33%
John Murphy - 7%
Paul DiGaetano - 6%
Steve Lonegan - 5%
Bob Schroeder - 1%
Todd Caliguire - 1%

Quinnipiac: DEAD HEAT

Maybe you didn't notice that I already posted this?  Tongue

I'm worried but not too worried and I'm not changing my predictions because of this. I'd rather be completely wrong than just keep adjusting my predictions.
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King
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« Reply #45 on: June 06, 2005, 08:32:39 pm »

Only a fool would call one university poll a sign of a dead heat.  Schundler has done consistantly better in Quinnipiac polls than in others so this confirms Forrestor by about 5-7%.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #46 on: June 06, 2005, 08:36:34 pm »

Only a fool would call one university poll a sign of a dead heat.  Schundler has done consistantly better in Quinnipiac polls than in others so this confirms Forrestor by about 5-7%.

I agree and disagree. Quinnipiac is one of the best polling institutes in the area. However, I'm still stratching my head as to how anyone can close that gap in such a short amount of time. I'm still alittle worried though.
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Cashcow
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« Reply #47 on: June 06, 2005, 08:47:17 pm »

Only a fool would call one university poll a sign of a dead heat.  Schundler has done consistantly better in Quinnipiac polls than in others so this confirms Forrestor by about 5-7%.

I agree and disagree. Quinnipiac is one of the best polling institutes in the area. However, I'm still stratching my head as to how anyone can close that gap in such a short amount of time. I'm still alittle worried though.

How many voters watch the primary debates? 1%? Forrester is going to win tomorrow without much trouble.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #48 on: June 06, 2005, 08:49:11 pm »

How many voters watch the primary debates? 1%?

I don't know about that. It's become a real circus and people would probably watch for the entertainment.

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I think he'll still win without much trouble either but I'm still alittle worried.
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angus
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« Reply #49 on: June 07, 2005, 07:58:34 am »
« Edited: June 07, 2005, 08:05:43 am by angus »

following up on the off-topic Bloomberg/stadium comments:  The assembly voted last evening not to fund it.  Bloomberg had invested a great deal of time and effort in that project, but Silber, the assemblyman from Lower Manhattan also happens to be a Democrat and the speaker, as well as an opponent of the 2.2 billion dollar project.  Presumably because he feels it takes money away from downtown projects such as rebuilding the WTC area.  Also Bloomberg's gone negative:  "Those that were on the other side will have to explain why they were against jobs, why they were against economic opportunity and growth."  Well, I still think I'm rooting for him.

Don't really follow the NJ governor's race, but in the spirit of staying on topic, I'll say that it seems like Schundler is closing the gap, based on what I saw on the local news last night.  Forrester still slightly ahead.  Hot again, but not as hot.  maybe low 70s when I stepped out about 8:30 EDT.  News said to expect 85.  Lotsa lightning and rain last night, so it'll be muggy like the Yucatan, or like Mississippi.  But my car is clean, and so are the sidewalks.  Fringe benefit of hard rain.
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