which is more likely to go Republican first?

[patrick1]

Nassau is not a liberal bastion at all.  The county still elects conservative judges and state senators. Further, Suozzi is not liked by a good proportion of people.

[patrick1]

Nassau is not a liberal bastion at all.  The county still elects conservative judges and state senators. Further, Suozzi is not liked by a good proportion of people.

Whuile having the Republican label many of those State Senators & Judges that get elected are quite Moderate.  As far as Suozzi not being well liked?  Where exactly are you getting that from??  Suozzi is going to win re-election in a landslide, the talk is basically about whatever the GOP puts up against him is nothing other than a sacrafical lamb

Granted a Repub in Nassau is usually quite different than one from outisde of the NE, but there is also a large proportion of people who hate the democratic party.  As for Suozz, even many democrats are  offended at his use of his office as a political springboard.  Barring a  gigantic mistake, Suozzi will win. However (imo), that is due more to the massive mismanagment of the previous county Repubs than any change in voter attitudes.

[patrick1]

Another reason is Incumbeny factor.  In many of the smaller type positions such as State Senators & Judges the Incumbency factor tends to be very strong.  Once you see more people in these seats retiring you will see more Dems fill the seats, along the lines of what has happened to the Nassau County Legislature which now is slightly Dem, but use to be very heavily Republican.

The reverse happened in Long Beach.  It was dominated by the Dems for 80 years but changed because of the corruption and ineffiency of the D party.  However, it was a moderate, cross party change.  I think people are starting to get tired of do nothing incumbents and rebel against that. 

I am not really interested in local politics and hate Newsday- so I could be very wrong.

[patrick1]

There are too many rabid Republicans in Nassau for Suozzi to win by anything more than he did.  I know it affects me more than national policsts but I've never really followed local politics and am very deficient in my knowledge.  From basic evidence I know that there is at least a third of the population who would never vote for a Democrat--the reverse is also true.

[patrick1]

The Democrats have a lot of help with a good stronghold of liberal Jewish people and assorted minorities.  The Republicans have a lot of help with the yuppie commuting crowd.  I find it balances itself out.  The fignt is over the middle moderate third. 

[patrick1]

The Democrats have a lot of help with a good stronghold of liberal Jewish people and assorted minorities.  The Republicans have a lot of help with the yuppie commuting crowd.  I find it balances itself out.  The fignt is over the middle moderate third. 

The younger white crowd (18-34) is overwelmingly liberal, more liberal than that crowd was during the 70's & 80's.   Also that yuppie commuting crowd is not nearly as Republican as they use to be (a change which started to happen in the early to mid 90's).  The moderate crowd is where also their was alot of change.  They are the crowd that once voted heavily Republican, but the social conservative swing of the Party on the National level changed them there & the brakdown of the Republican machine on the local level changed them there.   The same changes have occured in other Suburban areas in the region, the Philly burbs for example, the NOVA burbs of D.C (especially Fairfax).  The trend has been a Democratic shift on the Natl level, followed by a breakdown of the GOP machie Politics on the local level which has led to a Democratic Shift on the local level as well.  These areas (Nassau included) have always had a liberal contigency, a conservative contigency & a moderate contigency.  What has happened especially in Nassau is that the liberal contigency has gotten larger (& base has expanded from mostly minorities & Jews to having a much larger younger white crowd) the Cnservative Contigency has gotten smaller & the Moderate Contigency has shifted from the Republicans to the Democrats

That sounds plausible. However, were I a democrat, I would not rest on my laurels.  There are still many conservatives who intend to stay that way.

[patrick1]

I tend to roll in the Catholic and bar circles so my political litmus is skewed.  My best friend is a dem though.  Most of these politicians are outright crooks so I try not to take it too seriously.