which is more likely to go Republican first?

[Smash255]

Long Island was very Republican as recently as 1988. My vote is Long Island, easily.

Err... how do you define Long Island? I thought it included New York County and such.

CARLHAYDEN is right - generally, Long Island is considered to be Nassau and Suffolk counties, which voted 52-47 and 49-49 Kerry, respectively. Although on a map it looks like Queens is part of Long Island, I've never heard anyone include it.

Had very much to do with 9/11.  In both 96 & 2000 Long Island (Nassau & Suffolk) went Dem by double digits with Nassau hovering right around the 20% mark.  The only Republican right now who could win Long Island in a Presidential election is Giuliani & well his chances of getting the nomination are about as good as me hitting the lotto (Their won't be any 9/11 carry-over in 08 or an y other future election).  In 08 Long Island (Nassau & Suffolk) will go back to the Safe Dem category, but compared to well D.C it is more liley to go to the GOP

[Smash255]

Maybe 1996 and 2000 were the unusal results?

The area has shifted Democrat.  Most the Congressman on LI use to be Republican (late 80's or early 90's it was 4 out of 5 Gop)  Now the Congressional breakdown of LI is 4 of 5 Democrat.  Both county executives were Republican for a longtime, both are now Democrat as well as the Nassau Co Legislature.  Nassau County Executive Yom Suozzi won election in an open seat by a 2-1 margin in 2001 & will win in a landslide in 2005.

If you look at the difference from the Natl Average you can see  a rather strong leftward slide since the 80's in Nassau & Suffolk that it wasn't just 96 & 00 & that 2004 shift back was promarily do to 9/11.  Nassau saw a slight left shift between 80 & 84 then started really shifting after 88, Suffolk started shifting after 88


1980
Nassau 11.5% more GOP than Natl average
Suffolk   14.0% more GOP than Natl average

1984 
Nassau 5.6% more GOP than Natl average
Suffolk 14.1% more GOP than Natl average

1988
Nassau 7.1% more GOP than Natl average
Suffolk  14.1% more GOP than Natl average

1992
Nassau .3% more Dem than Natl average
Suffolk 7.1% more GOP than Natl average

1996
Nassau 11.1% more Dem than Natl average
Suffolk 7.2% more Dem than Natl average

2000
Nassau  18.9% more Dem than Natl average
Suffolk 10.4% more Dem than Natl average

2004
Nassau 8.1% more Dem than Natl average
Suffolk  3.5% more Dem than Natl average

Overall I would say Nassau is 15-20% more Dem than the Natl average & Suffolk is about 10% more Dem than the Natl average.  The 9/11 impact had alot to do with the 04 shift back rightward, but when you look at the other results in Long Island races (Congressional, County Execs) you will see it has gone Dem & is not shifting back

[Smash255]

The New York Suburbs have shifted to the Democrats strongly in the past few decades.

Look at New York in 1976 for example...Ford only lost by 4 points or so, and won Westchester, Nassau, and Suffolk.

The Democrats have also made some inroads upstate, but it's not as significant as the trend in the suburbs.

If the Republican Party drops its harsh social conservatism, it could definitely make inroads in the suburbs and reverse the trend we've seen in the last decade or two.

Their was a actually movement back rightwards between 76 & 1980.  Their was slight movemnt in Nassau to the left in the early 80's, but it evened at shortly after that for the rest of the 80's.  Nassau, Suffolk &  Westchester all went through a sharp swing leftward in the 90's starting with the 92 election.

[Smash255]

Nassau is not a liberal bastion at all.  The county still elects conservative judges and state senators. Further, Suozzi is not liked by a good proportion of people.

Whuile having the Republican label many of those State Senators & Judges that get elected are quite Moderate.  As far as Suozzi not being well liked?  Where exactly are you getting that from??  Suozzi is going to win re-election in a landslide, the talk is basically about whatever the GOP puts up against him is nothing other than a sacrafical lamb

[Smash255]

Another reason is Incumbeny factor.  In many of the smaller type positions such as State Senators & Judges the Incumbency factor tends to be very strong.  Once you see more people in these seats retiring you will see more Dems fill the seats, along the lines of what has happened to the Nassau County Legislature which now is slightly Dem, but use to be very heavily Republican.

[Smash255]

Nassau is not a liberal bastion at all.  The county still elects conservative judges and state senators. Further, Suozzi is not liked by a good proportion of people.

Whuile having the Republican label many of those State Senators & Judges that get elected are quite Moderate.  As far as Suozzi not being well liked?  Where exactly are you getting that from??  Suozzi is going to win re-election in a landslide, the talk is basically about whatever the GOP puts up against him is nothing other than a sacrafical lamb

Granted a Repub in Nassau is usually quite different than one from outisde of the NE, but there is also a large proportion of people who hate the democratic party.  As for Suozz, even many democrats are  offended at his use of his office as a political springboard.  Barring a  gigantic mistake, Suozzi will win. However (imo), that is due more to the massive mismanagment of the previous county Repubs than any change in voter attitudes.

The Gulotta diaster is a big reason why he won the open seat race against Bent in 2001 by such a massive margin for an open seat race, but I think his record speaks for itself, when you look t where the county was finacially four years gao compared to where it is now.  I don't think the GOP argument about him using the county executive seat as a spongeboard is going to have much impact.  In the end its going to look like they are just arguing about that because theyy can't pick apart his record.  I will be very suprised if Suozzi's margin this year isn't in the same range of his 2-1 victory last time around.  He might even improve on that. 

[Smash255]

Another reason is Incumbeny factor.  In many of the smaller type positions such as State Senators & Judges the Incumbency factor tends to be very strong.  Once you see more people in these seats retiring you will see more Dems fill the seats, along the lines of what has happened to the Nassau County Legislature which now is slightly Dem, but use to be very heavily Republican.

The reverse happened in Long Beach.  It was dominated by the Dems for 80 years but changed because of the corruption and ineffiency of the D party.  However, it was a moderate, cross party change.  I think people are starting to get tired of do nothing incumbents and rebel against that. 

Basically the exact opposite is going on out in Suffolk in Brookhaven.  Very safe Republican machine for a long long time, has numerous problems with scandals since the late 90's now really catching up to them.  LaValle isn't running for re-election, and it looks like it could very well be in Dems hands come election time

[Smash255]

There are too many rabid Republicans in Nassau for Suozzi to win by anything more than he did.  I know it affects me more than national policsts but I've never really followed local politics and am very deficient in my knowledge.  From basic evidence I know that there is at least a third of the population who would never vote for a Democrat--the reverse is also true.

Hard to say.  Right now I think their are MANY more Republicans who would cross party lines & vote Democrat than Democrats voting Republican.  Their is still actually a regristration edge for Republicans (but that gap is closing very fast).  The Independents have also shifted to voting more Democratic.  The change started on thhe Nationall level in the early 90's, but has started up on the local level over the past few years.  Kind of similar to the exact opposite of states in the south,

[Smash255]

The Democrats have a lot of help with a good stronghold of liberal Jewish people and assorted minorities.  The Republicans have a lot of help with the yuppie commuting crowd.  I find it balances itself out.  The fignt is over the middle moderate third. 

The younger white crowd (18-34) is overwelmingly liberal, more liberal than that crowd was during the 70's & 80's.   Also that yuppie commuting crowd is not nearly as Republican as they use to be (a change which started to happen in the early to mid 90's).  The moderate crowd is where also their was alot of change.  They are the crowd that once voted heavily Republican, but the social conservative swing of the Party on the National level changed them there & the brakdown of the Republican machine on the local level changed them there.   The same changes have occured in other Suburban areas in the region, the Philly burbs for example, the NOVA burbs of D.C (especially Fairfax).  The trend has been a Democratic shift on the Natl level, followed by a breakdown of the GOP machie Politics on the local level which has led to a Democratic Shift on the local level as well.  These areas (Nassau included) have always had a liberal contigency, a conservative contigency & a moderate contigency.  What has happened especially in Nassau is that the liberal contigency has gotten larger (& base has expanded from mostly minorities & Jews to having a much larger younger white crowd) the Cnservative Contigency has gotten smaller & the Moderate Contigency has shifted from the Republicans to the Democrats

[Smash255]

The Democrats have a lot of help with a good stronghold of liberal Jewish people and assorted minorities.  The Republicans have a lot of help with the yuppie commuting crowd.  I find it balances itself out.  The fignt is over the middle moderate third. 

The younger white crowd (18-34) is overwelmingly liberal, more liberal than that crowd was during the 70's & 80's.   Also that yuppie commuting crowd is not nearly as Republican as they use to be (a change which started to happen in the early to mid 90's).  The moderate crowd is where also their was alot of change.  They are the crowd that once voted heavily Republican, but the social conservative swing of the Party on the National level changed them there & the brakdown of the Republican machine on the local level changed them there.   The same changes have occured in other Suburban areas in the region, the Philly burbs for example, the NOVA burbs of D.C (especially Fairfax).  The trend has been a Democratic shift on the Natl level, followed by a breakdown of the GOP machie Politics on the local level which has led to a Democratic Shift on the local level as well.  These areas (Nassau included) have always had a liberal contigency, a conservative contigency & a moderate contigency.  What has happened especially in Nassau is that the liberal contigency has gotten larger (& base has expanded from mostly minorities & Jews to having a much larger younger white crowd) the Cnservative Contigency has gotten smaller & the Moderate Contigency has shifted from the Republicans to the Democrats

That sounds plausible. However, were I a democrat, I would not rest on my laurels.  There are still many conservatives who intend to stay that way.

Granted, but compared to the late 80's, the amount of conservatives have dropped quite a bit, the liberals have gained quite a bit & the moderates have gone from favoring the GOP to the Dems.  When you look at how much the county has changed politically in the last 15 years its rather amazing & its a shift which looks like will continue