which is more likely to go Republican first?

[Alcon]

Long Island was very Republican as recently as 1988. My vote is Long Island, easily.

[Alcon]

Long Island was very Republican as recently as 1988. My vote is Long Island, easily.

Err... how do you define Long Island? I thought it included New York County and such.

CARLHAYDEN is right - generally, Long Island is considered to be Nassau and Suffolk counties, which voted 52-47 and 49-49 Kerry, respectively. Although on a map it looks like Queens is part of Long Island, I've never heard anyone include it.

[Alcon]

Queens and Brooklyn are technically part of Long Island, though Alcon is right that Long Island is considered to be just Suffolk and Nassau counties.

Of course I voted Long Island in the poll.

By that definition of Long Island, it was 62%-36%. Still no competition.

This definition was actually quite close in 1988, voting Dukakis only 52%-47%.

Long Island is still the obvious choice.