NH/SC/FL-Associated Industries of FL: Trump leads NH, FL, tied w/ Cruz in SC

[Mr. Morden]

Associated Industries of Florida, which Politico describes as a pro-business lobby, polled NH, SC, and Florida.  Results…

New Hampshire (Dec. 17-18):

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/sites/default/files/NewHampshire_Dec2015.pdf

Trump 24%
Cruz 16%
Rubio 14%
Christie 13%
Bush 9%

South Carolina (Dec. 16-17):

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/sites/default/files/SouthCarolina_Dec2015.pdf

Trump 27%
Cruz 27%
Rubio 12%
Carson 11%
Bush 7%

Florida (Dec. 16-17):

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/sites/default/files/Florida_Dec2015.pdf

Trump 29%
Cruz 18%
Rubio 17%
Bush 10%
Carson 6%

Looks like this was an “open ended ballot test”, which means that no pre-selected list of candidates was read:

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In the NH and SC polls, however, they went on to ask about a 3-way hypothetical of Cruz/Rubio/Trump:

NH 3-way:

Trump 30%
Rubio 28%
Cruz 26%

SC 3-way:

Trump 33%
Cruz 32%
Rubio 24%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

TOO MANY ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATES DOING WELL IN NH!

[Senator Cris]

NH details:

Horse race:
Trump 24%
Cruz 16%
Rubio 14%
Christie 13%
Bush 9%
Others 13%

2nd choice:
Cruz 20%
Rubio 19%
Christie 17%
Trump 9%
Carson 7%
Others 17%

Favorability ratings:
Rubio 69/18 (+51)
Cruz 65/19 (+46)
Christie 66/22 (+44)
Carson 52/32 (+20)
Trump 48/45 (+3)
Bush 39/48 (- 9)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Combined first + 2nd choices:

Cruz 36%
Trump 33%
Rubio 33%
Christie 30%

[Likely Voter]

Once Cruz wins IA the other socons are going to drop out or collapse so he has a good chance of getting second in NH while the various 'establishment' candidates split the moderate/college vote.  I would not be surprised to see Cruz and Trump be first and second in the first three states. 

[weixiaobao]

Hmmm, last time they poll people that vote like in the mid term election, and presidential election etc.

Trump did not do that well, among these active voters.  Though, he still doing way better here.

I like this method of not reading out the list of candidate names.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Cruz win Iowa & SC, I dont know how he cant be stopped for nomination

[Holmes]

If Cruz win Iowa & SC, I dont know how he cant be stopped for nomination

Romney won neither.

[Likely Voter]

If Cruz win Iowa & SC, I dont know how he cant be stopped for nomination

Romney won neither.

True but he Santorum and Gingrich each won one of the first three.  But in 2000 and 2008 acted as a sort of tie breaker for eventual winner