YouGov/CBS - IA: Cruz 40%, Trump 31%, Rubio 12%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So if the Iowa result is anything close to this then what exactly is Rubio's path to the nomination? He must really be hating that the Florida primary is being held later that it has been in recent cycles.

Winning SC or NV, then doing well on Super Tuesday

[IceSpear]

Another day, another outlier YouGov poll.

[Mr. Morden]

So if the Iowa result is anything close to this then what exactly is Rubio's path to the nomination?

Second place in New Hampshire (with Bush/Christie/Kasich all falling below expectations)-->other "establishment" candidates drop out-->big money donors line up behind Rubio, going big with negative ads against Cruz/Trump in key states, while GOP governors and other local party leaders put their local party machines to work for him-->at least does well enough in South Carolina to not embarrass himself-->win Nevada, generating an "Is the establishment making a comeback?" media meme going into Super Tuesday-->use that momentum to at least do OK on Super Tuesday-->win key primaries in the rest of March, like MI, FL, IL, OH, AZ etc., so that he's actually ahead in the delegate count after March 15-->profit

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hopefully. All pre DNC bashing Bernie, though.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Rubio continues to be a horrible candidate he is not winning.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Is Cruz peaking a bit too early? Well over a month to go yet.

[Averroës Nix]

Too early for what? Cruz is just about the only candidate with real resources who is running a legitimate campaign in Iowa. Kasich, Christie, and Jeb are focusing on New Hampshire. Fiorina, Huckabee, and Santorum have had their chance to introduce themselves to Iowa voters, and all three have gradually declined to near-zero polling averages. (Even four years ago, Santorum was pulling over 10% in most polls by late December.) None of them have money to burn, either. Carson remains near 10%, but is headed the same way. Who else would Iowans support?

[Eraserhead]

You guys gotta admit, New Hampshire looks like a tough nut for Hillary to crack.

[Leinad]

Despite being a Rand Paul supporter, I continue to believe Ted Cruz is the most likely candidate to defeat Donald Trump and get the nomination.

If he wins Iowa (seems likely) and Rubio can't unite the establishment behind him, Cruz could be considered the national frontrunner. Or at least 1b to Trump's 1a.

[Adam Griffin]

So if the Iowa result is anything close to this then what exactly is Rubio's path to the nomination? He must really be hating that the Florida primary is being held later that it has been in recent cycles.

Winning SC or NV, then doing well on Super Tuesday

Yes, Rubio will win NV because he was a casual Morman decades ago before quitting the church*

*Technically, he's still a Morman because he and his family didn't turn in their golden termination papers; no worries about baptisms in absentia!

[Tender Branson]

Good to see the Bernster is still gaining across the board, while the filthy pro-Hillary forces are bringing out the butcher knives in their desperate attempts to stop him.

[Ebsy]

Good to see the Bernster is still gaining across the board, while the filthy pro-Hillary forces are bringing out the butcher knives in their desperate attempts to stop him.

Yes! At the rate he is gaining, he'll be leading in Iowa in June!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If Clinton shows a convincing victory in Iowa, I cant help but to see her too, winning NH. Clinton needs to win NH too to prove she has females behind her.

LOL

[ProgressiveCanadian]

You guys gotta admit, New Hampshire looks like a tough nut for Hillary to crack.

Absolutley! Bernie has the advantage right now. Independants are going big for Sanders in NH.

[Mr. Morden]

One interesting tidbit here: Trump overperforms among "very conservative" voters in both NH and SC, but not in Iowa.  In Iowa, Cruz has an overwhelming advantage, getting 66% of "very conservative" voters.

"Very conservatives" in Iowa:
Cruz 66%
Trump 16%

"Very conservatives" in New Hampshire:
Trump 36%
Cruz 17%

"Very conservatives" in South Carolina:
Trump 44%
Cruz 32%

How much of this difference is because Iowa "very conservative" voters are different from their counterparts in other states, and how much is because of the Cruz campaign targeting Iowa?