German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Supports Bush foreign policy. Seeing German troops end up in Iraq would be a nightmare.

[ag]

Supports Bush foreign policy. Seeing German troops end up in Iraq would be a nightmare.

The number of times over the last months she said she would not do it under any circumstances is, probably, greater than the number of times you said "thank you" in your life. Nor would she have any incentives to do it - unless she enjoys public political suicide. Nor would she be supported in it either by CSU or by FDP if she wanted to do it.  The most she'd do is to make a few supportive speaches during a visit to the US.

[Cubby]

I feel like its September 2002 all over again, just with a stronger CDU candidate. I remember back during the war (2003) reading a New York Times article that said that Germany was in an economic malaise and that Merkel was a Thatcher-type potential leader who could shake up Germany in more ways than one.

That hasn't happened tonight. Yea! Although Schroeder does have to make economic reforms to reduce that unemployment and bring jobs back to the country.

Ag & BRTD: The same NY Times article mentioned that Merkel was in discussions with the Bush Administration, about what god only knows. Thats when I formed a dislike of her, since its unpatriotic to have talks with foreign governments when you are not in power. What the heck was she planning? But you're right that she did continually deny that she'd send troops to Iraq now.

[Erc]

Ag & BRTD: The same NY Times article mentioned that Merkel was in discussions with the Bush Administration, about what god only knows. Thats when I formed a dislike of her, since its unpatriotic to have talks with foreign governments when you are not in power. What the heck was she planning? But you're right that she did continually deny that she'd send troops to Iraq now.

When Merkel was widely accepted to be the next Chancellor of Germany, is it little surprise that people wanted to talk to her--so that when she comes in they already know each other a bit?

Wendell Wilkie went to visit everyone in the 40's--and everyone wanted to see him.  Why?  Because common opinion was he could very well be the next President of the United States come 1945.


In any event...

I had a distinct feeling that something like this would happen, and that Schroeder would somehow manage to hang on.  Never thought it would actually happen, though.

All in all, a sad day for Germany.

[minionofmidas]

I think there was an earlier one some weeks ago...but then the CDU/FDP decline stopped... Still grotesque numbers of undecideds out there, for all I hear. Heck, I'm not quite decided.
Smart money's on a grand coalition.

I have a theory that the undecideds will break disproportionately to the Free Democrats (not a majority, but two to three times their proportion of the current decideds).

Ahem.

Yeah, I thought of that one. Of course, wasn't the extent you seem to be predicting there; and of course, wasn't undecideds who broke for the FDP, but previously decided CDU voters...but still.

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Which is exactly why I said a very narrow CDU lead doesn't lead to a Grand Coalition. (Strong lead, but CDU/CSU/FDP just short would have. So would a result with the SPD just ahead in votes and seats.)

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More like only insane opposition...

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No way. Not gonna happen. There are some people who'd like the thought, yours truly included actually, but the majority of followers of either wouldn't like it much. Still, probably less unpopular among Greens than the "Jamaica Coalition".


 

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[minionofmidas]

Individual seats to change hands:

1. Odenwald (Hessen) (SPD > CDU)
2. Pinneberg (Schleswig - Holstein) (SPD >CDU)
3. Frankfurt am Main II (Hessen) (SPD>CDU)
4. Greiz - Altenburger Land (Thuringen) (SPD>CDU)
5. Berlin-Steglitz - Zehlendorf (Berlin) (SPD>CDU)
6. Segeberg - Stormarn-Nord (Schleswig-Holstein) (SPD>CDU)
7. Herzogtum Lauenburg - Stormarn-Süd (Schleswig-Holstein) (SPD>CDU)
8. Berlin-Treptow - Köpenick (Berlin) (SPD>Linke) - this is now Gregor Gysi's seat.
9. Offenbach (Hessen) (SPD>CDU)
10. Karlsruhe-Stadt (Baden-Wurttemberg) (SPD>CSU)
11. Rendsburg-Eckernförde (Schleswig-Holstein) (SPD>CDU)
12. Leipziger Land - Muldentalkreis (Sachsen) (SPD>CDU)
13. Kyffhäuserkreis - Sömmerda - Weimarer Land I (Thuringen) (SPD>CDU)
14. Bergstraße (Hessen) (SPD>CDU)
15. Mettmann I (NRW) (SPD>CDU)
16. Neubrandenburg - Mecklenburg-Strelitz - Uecker-Randow (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) (SPD>CDU)
17. Heidelberg (Baden-Wurttemberg) (SPD>CDU)
18. Rhein-Sieg-Kreis I (NRW) (SPD>CDU)
19. Stuttgart I (Baden-Wurttemberg) (SPD>CDU)
20. Steinburg - Dithmarschen Süd (Schleswigh-Holstein) (SPD>CDU)
21. Neuss I (NRW) (SPD>CDU)
22. Düren (NRW) (SPD>CDU)
23. Kreuznach (Rheinland-Pfalz) (SPD>CDU)
24. Trier (Rheinland-Pfalz) (SPD>CDU)
25. Düsseldorf I (NRW) (SPD>CDU)

Total: 24 seats went from SPD to CDU and 1 seat from SPD to Linke.

Aside from the SPD and CDU/CSU Linke got 3 direct seats and the Greens kept their single Berlin seat.

Plus one CSU from SPD gain through redistricting.

[minionofmidas]

the Greens will lose support to der Linke

My dad feared a lot of that to happen this election actually

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You know when the FDP got their worst result ever? That's right. Tail end of the 60's Grand Coalition.

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That's much more likely.

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Part one - How the hell could that happen? Part two - how the hell could that happen? Part three - you have a seriously warped definition either of "further" or of "improve". The country moved left, man. As was really to be expected as long as turnout held up.

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[minionofmidas]

The Green and Linke electorates seem to be more different between themselves than the CDU and SPD electorates.  You might dislike both, but they are not at all similar, nor they are natural allies, nor have they ever been.  For Linke to be acceptable for the Green leadership, it would have to ditch much of its Eastern inheritance and, most definitely, the person of Oscar Lafontaine.  In other words, they'd have to ditch 3/4 of their electorate.  Ideologically, the anti-immigrant, environment-indifferent union- and old-commie-based Linke is anathema to the Greens.  Honestly, a CDU/SPD merger seems likelier - or, at least, less ideologically incongruent.

That anti-immigrant line is of course utter nonsense...nonsense you took from SPD and Greens. To go with your picture of "what Schröder did to Merkel", it's what Schröder did to Lafontaine.

[minionofmidas]

Pym - actually Merkel broke with several decades tradition by not meeting the American president during the early weeks of the campaign.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hahahahaha, I'm laughing my ass off looking at these results.

I think first of all, this is a major defeat for the pollsters. Nobody of them saw THIS come. When I first heard of the SPD result I thought "well, this is no surprise, perhaps a bit better than expected"... but when I saw the result of the CDU/CSU I was only thinking "WTF???".

[Umengus]

Hahahahaha, I'm laughing my ass off looking at these results.

I think first of all, this is a major defeat for the pollsters. Nobody of them saw THIS come. When I first heard of the SPD result I thought "well, this is no surprise, perhaps a bit better than expected"... but when I saw the result of the CDU/CSU I was only thinking "WTF???".

I tought that german pollsters were very good (the best of the world!). Not really the case...

It's a clear defeat for Schroeder and especially for Merkel. Germans don't want this girl like chancellor, it's clear. I believe that it's her economic opinions (neoliberalism: flat tax,...) wich killed her and her lack of charisma.

I'm very glad to see the result of "die linke". you know I'm not communist. I'm a populist and I wanted see Schroeder, greens and Merkel down and a terrible mess. Thank you Mister Lafontaine .

[minionofmidas]

Hahahahaha, I'm laughing my ass off looking at these results.

I think first of all, this is a major defeat for the pollsters. Nobody of them saw THIS come. When I first heard of the SPD result I thought "well, this is no surprise, perhaps a bit better than expected"... but when I saw the result of the CDU/CSU I was only thinking "WTF???".

I tought that german pollsters were very good (the best of the world!). Not really the case...

It's a clear defeat for Schroeder and especially for Merkel. Germans don't want this girl like chancellor, it's clear. I believe that it's her economic opinions (neoliberalism: flat tax,...) wich killed her and her lack of charisma.

I'm very glad to see the result of "die linke". you know I'm not communist. I'm a populist and I wanted see Schroeder, greens and Merkel down and a terrible mess. Thank you Mister Lafontaine .

I only decided tuesday to vote first (unimportant) left, second green. Until then I'd also pondered having them the other way round, so I can be almost as pleased as you.

[minionofmidas]

Couple more bits:
Yep, Red-Green doesn't have a majority, but nobody expected them to.
CDU-FDP doesn`t have one either, though they have marginally more votes.
But here's the rub - there is no constellation at all imaginable where both SPD and Greens are in opposition. There are possible constellations where both CDU and FDP are.

And, nobody's pointed it out yet, but the NPD share, in a Bundestag election, in the East is rather frightening.

[minionofmidas]

STATE RESULTS

Schleswig-Holstein
Turnout 79.2 (-1.5)
SPD 38.2 (-4.7) 9 seats (5 direct)
CDU 36.4 (+0.4) 8 seats (6 direct)
FDP 10.1 (+2.1) 2 seats
Greens 8.4 (-1.0) 2 seats
Left 4.6 (+3.3) 1 seat
other 2.3 (-0.1)

Hamburg
Turnout 77.6 (-2.0)
SPD 38.7 (-3.3) 6 seats (6 direct; 1 overhang)
CDU 28.9 (+0.8) 4 seats
Greens 14.9 (-1.3) 2 seats
FDP 9.0 (+2.2) 1 seat
Left 6.3 (+4.2) 1 seat
other 2.1 (-2.7) (due to no Schill on ballot)

Lower Saxony
Turnout 79.4 (-1.6)
SPD 43.2 (-4.6) 27 seats (25 direct)
CDU 33.6 (-0.9) 21 seats (4 direct)
FDP 8.9 (+1.8) 6 seats
Greens 7.4 (+0.1) 5 seats
Left 4.3 (+3.3) 3 seats
other 2.6 (+0.4)

Bremen
Turnout 75.5 (-3.3)
SPD 43.0 (-5.6) 2 seats (2 direct)
CDU 22.8 (-1.8) 1 seat
Greens 14.3 (-0.7) 1 seat
Left 8.3 (+6.1)
FDP 8.1 (+1.4)
other 3.4 (+0.5)

[Middle-aged Europe]

I tought that german pollsters were very good (the best of the world!). Not really the case...

According to the last polls taken before the election the CDU should have gotten 42% of the vote. On the other hand, some polls indicated that about one fifth to one third of the voters were still undecided during the final days of the campaign.

It's a clear defeat for Schroeder and especially for Merkel.

Yeah, it's a defeat for both major parties and a success for all of the minor players (although the FDP took benefit from some tactical CDU voters). I wonder whether CDU/CSU or SPD will ever manage to win more than 40% in the future.

Combined vote for SPD and CDU/CSU in 2002: 77.0%
Combined vote for SPD and CDU/CSU in 2005: 69.5%

Combined vote for Greens, FDP, and PDS in 2002: 20.0%
Combined vote for Greens, FDP, and Left Party in 2005: 26.6%

[minionofmidas]

North Rhine Westphalia
Turnout 78.3 (-2.0)
SPD 40.0 (-3.0) 54 seats (40 direct)
CDU 34.4 (-0.7) 47 seats (24 direct)
FDP 10.0 (+0.7) 14 seats
Greens 7.6 (-1.3) 10 seats
Left 5.2 (+4.0) 7 seats
other 2.8 (+0.3)

Hessen
Turnout 78.9 (-1.2)
SPD 35.7 (-4.0) 16 seats (13 direct)
CDU 33.7 (-3.4) 15 seats (8 direct)
FDP 11.7 (+3.5) 5 seats
Greens 10.1 (-0.6) 5 seats
Left 5.3 (+4.0) 2 seats
other 3.6 (+0.7)

Rhineland - Palatinate
Turnout 78.7 (-1.3)
CDU 36.9 (-3.3) 12 seats (10 direct)
SPD 34.6 (-3.6) 11 seats (5 direct)
FDP 11.7 (+2.4) 4 seats
Greens 7.3 (-0.6) 2 seats
Left 5.6 (+4.6) 2 seats
other 4.0 (+0.7)

Saarland (hold your breath)
Turnout 79.4 (-0.6)
SPD 33.2 (-12.7) 4 seats (4 direct, incl. 1 overhang)
CDU 30.2 (-4.8) 2 seats
Left 18.5 (+17.1) 2 seats
FDP 7.4 (+1.0) 1 seat
Greens 5.9 (-1.7) no seats
other 4.7 (+1.7)

[Jens]

Saarland (hold your breath)
Turnout 79.4 (-0.6)
SPD 33.2 (-12.7) 4 seats (4 direct, incl. 1 overhang)
CDU 30.2 (-4.8 ) 2 seats
Left 18.5 (+17.1) 2 seats
FDP 7.4 (+1.0) 1 seat
Greens 5.9 (-1.7) no seats
other 4.7 (+1.7)

Any reason for the Linke result in Saarland? Lafontaine country perhaps??

[minionofmidas]

Saarland (hold your breath)
Turnout 79.4 (-0.6)
SPD 33.2 (-12.7) 4 seats (4 direct, incl. 1 overhang)
CDU 30.2 (-4.8 ) 2 seats
Left 18.5 (+17.1) 2 seats
FDP 7.4 (+1.0) 1 seat
Greens 5.9 (-1.7) no seats
other 4.7 (+1.7)

Any reason for the Linke result in Saarland? Lafontaine country perhaps??

Lafontaine country indeed. As a direct candidate in Saarbrücken, he polled 26% to the CDU's 29 and SPD's 33.

[minionofmidas]

Baden-Württemberg
Turnout 78.7 (-2.4)
CDU 39.2 (-3.6) 33 seats (33 direct, incl. 3 overhang)
SPD 30.1 (-3.4) 23 seats (4 direct)
FDP 11.9 (+4.1) 9 seats
Greens 10.7 (-0.7) 8 seats
Left 3.8 (+2.9) 3 seats
other 3.2 (-0.4)

Bavaria
Turnout 78.1 (-3.4)
CSU (hold your breath) 49.3 (-9.3) 46 seats (44 direct)
SPD 25.5 (-0.6) 24 seats (1 direct)
FDP 9.5 (+5.0) 9 seats
Greens 7.9 (+0.3) 7 seats
Left 3.4 (+2.7) 3 seats
other 4.2 (+1.8)

Thuringia (all through the east, observe SPD, Left, and also turnout and Greens. And NPD)
Turnout 75.5 (+0.7)
SPD 29.8 (-10.1) 6 seats (6 direct)
Left 26.1 (+9.1) 5 seats
CDU 25.7 (-3.7) 5 seats (3 direct)
FDP 7.9 (+2.0) 1 seat
Greens 4.8 (+0.5) 1 seat
other 5.7 (+2.1) of which NPD 3.7

Saxony (without Dresden I. Comparison is with entire state.)
Turnout 75.9 (+2.4)
CDU 30.2 (-3.2) 13 seats (13 direct incl. 3 overhang)
SPD 24.3 (-9.0) 8 seats (3 direct)
Left 23.0 (+6.8) 8 seats
FDP 9.8 (+2.5) 3 seats
Greens 4.6 (0) 2 seats
other 7.8 (+2.7), of which NPD 4.9

[Middle-aged Europe]

Best/worst constituency results (taken from election.de)


Best first vote results

CDU/CSU: Ernst Hinsken, Straubing/Bavaria (68.0%)

SPD: Johannes Pflug, Duisburg II/North Rhine-Westphalia (61.6%)

Greens: Hans-Christian Ströbele, Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg/Berlin (43.2%)

Left.PDS: Gesine Lötzsch, Berlin-Lichtenberg/Berlin (42.9%)

FDP: Heinz-Peter Haustein, Freiberg-Mittlerer Erzgebirgskreis/Saxony (13.1%)

All of them have actually won the seat, except for the FDP guy.


Best second vote results

CDU/CSU: Rottal-Inn, Bavaria (61.2%)

SPD: Aurich-Emden, Lower Saxony (56.0 %)

Left.PDS: Berlin-Lichtenberg, Berlin (35.6%)

Greens: Freiburg, Baden-Württemberg (22.8%)

FDP: Main-Taunus, Hesse (16.4%)


Worst second vote results

SPD: Ostallgäu, Bavaria (19.0%)

CDU/CSU: Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Berlin (11.1%)

FDP: Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Berlin (4.6%)

Greens: Annaberg-Aue-Schwarzenberg, Saxony (2.6%)

Left.PDS: Cloppenburg-Vechta, Lower Saxony (2.2%)

[minionofmidas]

Saxony-Anhalt
Turnout 71.0 (+2.2)
SPD 32.7 (-10.5) 10 seats (10 direct, incl. 4 overhang)
Left 26.6 (+12.2) 5 seats
CDU 24.7 (-4.3) 5 seats
FDP 8.1 (+0.5) 2 seats
Greens 4.1 (+0.7) 1 seat
other 3.8 (+1.4), of which NPD 2.5

Brandenburg
Turnout 75.0 (+1.3)
SPD 35.8 (-10.6) 10 seats (10 direct, incl. 3 overhang)
Left 26.6 (+9.4) 5 seats
CDU 20.6 (-1.3) 4 seats
FDP 6.9 (+1.1) 1 seat
Greens 5.1 (+0.6) 1 seat
other 5.0 (+1.2), of which NPD 3.2

Mecklenburg - Lower Pomerania
Turnout 71.4 (+0.8)
SPD 31.7 (-10.0) 4 seats (4 direct)
CDU 29.6 (-0.7) 4 seats (3 direct)
Left 23.7 (+7.4) 3 seats
FDP 6.3 (+0.9) 1 seat
Greens 4.0 (+0.5) 1 seat
other 4.8 (+2.0), of which NPD 3.5

Berlin
Turnout 77.4 (-0.2)
SPD 34.4 (-2.2) 8 seats (7 direct)
CDU 22.0 (-3.9) 5 seats (1 direct)
Left 16.4 (+5.0) 4 seats (3 direct)
Greens 13.7 (-0.9) 3 seats (1 direct)
FDP 8.2 (+1.6) 2 seats
other 5.5 (+0.6)

[minionofmidas]

Oh, btw. We now have 5 Muslim MPs, 3 for the Left, 1 for the Greens, 1 for the SPD. But, unlike the UK, three of them are women. The advantages of PR for ya...

[minionofmidas]

As to the possible effects of Dresden October 2nd...

the results there may affect the general in three different ways.
-Dresden votes may change the overall distribution of proportional seats. As of now, the proportional entitlements of the parties are - SPD 213.31; CDU 173.00; FDP 61.02; Left 53.97; Greens 50,54; CSU 46,16. On these figures, looks like that may very well not happen. (Remember - Dresden casts about 0.3% of the Registered Vote - if turnout is high, that is. It might be quite low. Left will score well above their national result, CDU and SPD below, FDP and Greens very roughly in line with national averages.) A Left pickup from Greens or CDU is conceivable.Of course this would then have to be distributed to a state as well.
-Dresden votes may change any parties' distribution of proportional seats onto the states. After all, the total Saxon vote may will rise by about 5%.
Current situation is, SPD Saxony 8.00 (state most likely to lose a seat: Schleswig Holstein 8.63)
CDU Saxony 10.00 (NRW 46.59)
Left Saxony 7.57 (Saar 1.55)
FDP 3.22 (Saxony Anhalt 1.55)
Greens 1.54 (the Greens' second Saxon seat actually is itself their 51st seat.)
In other words, this too appears possible but not really all that likely, thanks to the Left score.
-Third, and most obvious: The CDU will likely win the direct election, giving it another Overhang seat. Although this might be prevented by tactical voting of either Left or SPD supporters, it's impossible to tell who the main challenger is, so I suppose the CDU will take the seat.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's seems both SPD and CDU/CSU are prefering a coalition with FDP and Greens now (the so-called "traffic light coalition", Red-Yellow-Green, and the so-called "Jamaica coalition", Black-Yellow-Green).

The problem: The FDP doesn't want a coalition with SPD and Greens and the Greens don't want a coalition with CDU/CSU and FDP.

So, a grand coalition still seems possible, if not likely.

[skybridge]

Which coalition would you guys like to see?