Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[King]

Since apparently this is a thing now...

http://overtimepolitics.com/new-iowa-poll-shows-trump-with-31-26-lead-over-cruz/

Trump 31
Cruz 26
Rubio 13
Carson 8
Paul 6
Bush 5
Fiorina 2
Kasich/Christie 1

That Paul result prompts some skepticism.

Not necessarily. Paul's current RCP average in Iowa is 3.8, so 6 is possible within MOE.

[King]

These Overtime Politics polls seem pretty junky. They seem to indicate Hillary leads Bernie 55-35 (+/- moe) in every single state.

[King]

Very clearly a fraud. There's no way this outfit could afford to produce these polls so rapidly and no way in hell these numbers are accurate. Lack of crosstabs icing on cake.

[King]

Sanders hasn't polled worse than 35 percent in any of these OT polls, and they're polling entirely assumed safe Clinton states, not NE/pacific coast states. For us to buy these, he'd have to be up nationally.

[King]

This one doesn't exist yet, but it probably will.

[King]

Terrible methodology. No model for realistic turnout.

Trash.

[King]

If they really want it to be quick, it's simple:

1. Age
2. Gender
3. Race
4. Income
5. Democratic or Republican primary?
6. Their actual candidate choice

6 questions. Should be able to be finished rather quickly.

Yeah, but then people start expecting you to make complex tables breaking everything down along demographic lines - which is work.

If you know how to use Excel it's not.