Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://overtimepolitics.com/donald-trump-leads-ted-cruz-in-florida-32-21/

Donald Trump – 137 – 32%
Ted Cruz – 90 – 21%
Marco Rubio – 79 – 18%
Jeb Bush – 39 – 9%
Ben Carson – 25 – 6%
Chris Christie – 16 – 4%
Carly Fiorina – 8 – 2%
Rand Paul – 6 – 3%
John Kasich – 3 – 1%
Other – 10 – 2%
Undecided – 15 – 4%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Numbers from the last reputable poll of FL, taken in December:

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/FL-GOP-PP-12.17.15.pdf

Trump 30
Cruz 20
Rubio 15
Bush 13
Carson 8
Christie 6
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Kasich 1
Pataki <1
Santorum  <1
Graham 0
Huckabee 0
Gilmore 0

Rubio's support has increased at the expense of Jeb, but everything else is about the same.

Maybe this is luck, or maybe they're just herding, but there's a chance that they have become at least OK at polling.

What do the rest of you think - is it time to resume including these polls in the maps/database?

[bigedlb]

Numbers from the last reputable poll of FL, taken in December:

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/FL-GOP-PP-12.17.15.pdf

Trump 30
Cruz 20
Rubio 15
Bush 13
Carson 8
Christie 6
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Kasich 1
Pataki <1
Santorum  <1
Graham 0
Huckabee 0
Gilmore 0

Rubio's support has increased at the expense of Jeb, but everything else is about the same.

Maybe this is luck, or maybe they're just herding, but there's a chance that they have become at least OK at polling.

What do the rest of you think - is it time to resume including these polls in the maps/database?

. Overtime's poll Trump 32 Cruz 21 Rubio 19 Bush 9.  Stable except that some Bush support is going to Rubio.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Now have they decided to become too pro Hillary? I bet even in Florida Hillary does not have a 12 point lead with people under 30.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Now have they decided to become too pro Hillary? I bet even in Florida Hillary does not have a 12 point lead with people under 30.

Really? So you're turning on them, despite their strong pro-Bernie "numbers" in the past?

What polls do you like or believe?

[Zanas]

Now have they decided to become too pro Hillary? I bet even in Florida Hillary does not have a 12 point lead with people under 30.

Really? So you're turning on them, despite their strong pro-Bernie "numbers" in the past?

What polls do you like or believe?

He only believes polls where Bernie exceeds his expectations. And his expectations are, well, crazy already.

Apart from that, there's still no reason to include these "polls" : they're not made by a transparent polling outfit, we cannot verify their methods, the samples are tiny. Each and every one of us here could come up with plausible polling results as some above, that doesn't mean we can poll. Frankly I generally don't trust any poll with a sample below 1,000, but maybe that's just me.

[Former Democrat]

I will use them for my monthly electoral map so-YES! The FL numbers go aling with other pollsters! All the time most thought they are too pro Bernie now they're too much pro Hillary? Come one! If you don't like the polls you don't must gollow them

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Now have they decided to become too pro Hillary? I bet even in Florida Hillary does not have a 12 point lead with people under 30.

Really? So you're turning on them, despite their strong pro-Bernie "numbers" in the past?

What polls do you like or believe?

He only believes polls where Bernie exceeds his expectations. And his expectations are, well, crazy already.

Apart from that, there's still no reason to include these "polls" : they're not made by a transparent polling outfit, we cannot verify their methods, the samples are tiny. Each and every one of us here could come up with plausible polling results as some above, that doesn't mean we can poll. Frankly I generally don't trust any poll with a sample below 1,000, but maybe that's just me.

How many polls have Hillary up 12 points with people under 30? If that doesn't surprise you, you don't realize how strong Bernie is with young people.

[Zanas]

Now have they decided to become too pro Hillary? I bet even in Florida Hillary does not have a 12 point lead with people under 30.

Really? So you're turning on them, despite their strong pro-Bernie "numbers" in the past?

What polls do you like or believe?

He only believes polls where Bernie exceeds his expectations. And his expectations are, well, crazy already.

Apart from that, there's still no reason to include these "polls" : they're not made by a transparent polling outfit, we cannot verify their methods, the samples are tiny. Each and every one of us here could come up with plausible polling results as some above, that doesn't mean we can poll. Frankly I generally don't trust any poll with a sample below 1,000, but maybe that's just me.

How many polls have Hillary up 12 points with people under 30? If that doesn't surprise you, you don't realize how strong Bernie is with young people.

Sorry dude, but they polled 400 fukcing people ! People under 30 must make up 100-120 of these max ! Have you got any idea of the margin of error that's gonna cause ? Nothing can be inferred from that, if from the whole poll. We're on the same side, I would prefer Sanders over Clinton too, but you have to use your rational thought once in a while and not be so delusional, for your own sake.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Now have they decided to become too pro Hillary? I bet even in Florida Hillary does not have a 12 point lead with people under 30.

Really? So you're turning on them, despite their strong pro-Bernie "numbers" in the past?

What polls do you like or believe?

He only believes polls where Bernie exceeds his expectations. And his expectations are, well, crazy already.

Apart from that, there's still no reason to include these "polls" : they're not made by a transparent polling outfit, we cannot verify their methods, the samples are tiny. Each and every one of us here could come up with plausible polling results as some above, that doesn't mean we can poll. Frankly I generally don't trust any poll with a sample below 1,000, but maybe that's just me.

How many polls have Hillary up 12 points with people under 30? If that doesn't surprise you, you don't realize how strong Bernie is with young people.

Sorry dude, but they polled 400 fukcing people ! People under 30 must make up 100-120 of these max ! Have you got any idea of the margin of error that's gonna cause ? Nothing can be inferred from that, if from the whole poll. We're on the same side, I would prefer Sanders over Clinton too, but you have to use your rational thought once in a while and not be so delusional, for your own sake.

OK, so the MOE is 10%. The thing is even in Florida, Bernie should be leading under 30 by double digits. I found some Iowa poll where he led under 30 by 50 points.

[Senator Cris]

lol what is the point of demographic breakdowns if they don't tell us the demographic composition of their sample??

This. If they won't release the demographic composition of the sample, I won't include their polls in my averages and I think their polls shouldn't be included in the Atlas database as well.

[mds32]

Now have they decided to become too pro Hillary? I bet even in Florida Hillary does not have a 12 point lead with people under 30.

Really? So you're turning on them, despite their strong pro-Bernie "numbers" in the past?

What polls do you like or believe?

He only believes polls where Bernie exceeds his expectations. And his expectations are, well, crazy already.

Apart from that, there's still no reason to include these "polls" : they're not made by a transparent polling outfit, we cannot verify their methods, the samples are tiny. Each and every one of us here could come up with plausible polling results as some above, that doesn't mean we can poll. Frankly I generally don't trust any poll with a sample below 1,000, but maybe that's just me.

How many polls have Hillary up 12 points with people under 30? If that doesn't surprise you, you don't realize how strong Bernie is with young people.

Sorry dude, but they polled 400 fukcing people ! People under 30 must make up 100-120 of these max ! Have you got any idea of the margin of error that's gonna cause ? Nothing can be inferred from that, if from the whole poll. We're on the same side, I would prefer Sanders over Clinton too, but you have to use your rational thought once in a while and not be so delusional, for your own sake.

I agree I am starting to become very skeptical very fast. The the Iowa and NH polls they do after VA will confirm this since most pollsters are showing a tied/Cruz lead in Iowa right now.

[bigedlb]

PPP is doing Iowa next week also, so it will be interesting to do a comparison

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Virginia polls will be released today.

[This account no longer in use.]

Everybody on the Overtime Hype Train!

[Wells]

Virginia Republican Results: http://overtimepolitics.com/trump-holds-a-9-point-lead-in-virginia-over-ted-cruz-28-19/
1. Trump 28%
2. Cruz 19%
3. Carson 17%
4. Rubio 14%
5. Bush 5%
6. Fiorina 4%
7. Paul 3%
8. Christie 2%
9. Kasich 1%

[This account no longer in use.]

Male: Trump 31/Cruz 21
Female: Trump 26/Carson 19
18-30: Trump 29/Cruz 22
31-45: Trump 25/Cruz 19
46-59: Trump 25/Carson 18
60+: Trump 37/Cruz 20

White: Trump 28/Cruz 23
Black: Carson 45/Trump 27
Hispanic: Rubio 32/Carson 25 (Oddly, Cruz only got 4% of Hispanic vote...)
Asian: Trump 58/Rubio 17
Native American/Other: Trump 62

Income
<$10,000: Carson 28/Trump 19
$10001-25000: Cruz 25/Trump 23
25001-45000: Trump 33/Cruz 18
45001-65000: Trump 25/Carson 20
>65001: Trump 35/Cruz 14

[The Other Castro]

Virginia Democratic poll:

Hillary Clinton - 54%
Bernie Sanders - 39%
Martin O’Malley - 3%
Undecided - 4%

http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-by-15-points-in-virginia-54-39/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Last Virginia poll was 58-32 Clinton, in November. So this is a pretty significant tightening.

It has Sanders at 23% among blacks and 34% among hispanics. Not completely out of the realm of possibility, but still hard to believe.

[This account no longer in use.]

Virginia Democratic poll:

Hillary Clinton - 54%
Bernie Sanders - 39%
Martin O’Malley - 3%
Undecided - 4%

http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-by-15-points-in-virginia-54-39/

My god. The demographics look real.

[Wells]

Male: Clinton (47-44)
Female: Clinton (60-34)

Age 18-30: Sanders (49-45)
31-45: Clinton (57-36)
46-59: Clinton (56-35)
60+: Clinton (56-39)

White/Caucasian: Clinton (47-45)
Black/African-American: Clinton (73-23)
Hispanic/Latino: Clinton (61-34)
Asian: Clinton (73-24)
Native American/Other: Clinton (73-24)

Income <10,000$: Clinton (62-34)
10,001-25,000$: Clinton (57-38)
25,001-45,000$: Tie (45-45)
45,001-65,000$: Clinton (55-37)
65,001$+: Clinton (58-35)

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Can we...can we use it officially now?

[Holmes]

He's cooking up numbers.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He's cooking up numbers.

These numbers are not the most believable, but really don't smell like the pure garbage he put out for Michigan. It's perfectly possible that that was just a weird outlier - every polling company has them sometimes, no one is perfect. The Missouri numbers differed strongly from other polls, but I've always felt that that state would go for Sanders in a competitive primary due to it being almost entirely white outside of three counties (2 CDs), so you can at least entertain the notion of that poll being correct.  And it's impossible to tell the validity of their Arkansas numbers since the last poll of that state was from 2013 and included people like Warren and Cuomo.

That being said, given their methodology, small staff, and previous strong criticisms of Clinton on Twitter, I'm not quite ready to resume inclusion yet. But if their Iowa numbers are reasonable, which will be easy to tell because of the countless number of times that state has been polled,  I will resume including their polls in the democratic map, including retroactively adding this Virginia Poll and the Florida Poll. The Michigan Poll will not be included as it is undeniable garbage.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

He's cooking up numbers.

Even with the demographics now your still going to complain?