Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[Terry the Fat Shark]

If it was a pro-Sanders polling place making up numbers, why do through the trouble of doing GOP polls as well?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If it was a pro-Sanders polling place making up numbers, why do through the trouble of doing GOP polls as well?

To appear legitimate

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Just not convinced, Sanders people aren't this desperate yet.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://overtimepolitics.com/trump-holds-8-point-lead-over-cruz-in-tennessee-34-26/

Donald Trump – 144 – 34%
Ted Cruz – 109 – 26%
Ben Carson – 47 – 11%
Marco Rubio – 43 – 10%
Rand Paul – 21 – 5%
Jeb Bush – 13 – 3%
John Kasich – 5 – 1%
Chris Christie – 4 – 1%
Carly Fiorina – 2 – <1%
Other – 12 – 3%
Undecided – 25 – 6%

[mds32]

That's a reasonable result. Cruz closing with Trump still ahead.

[mds32]

If all of you think this pollster is such a phony why are you giving them the attention that they want. I am sure most of the other pollsters would enjoy having over 50 comments on their polls if you think they are actual pollsters, unlike here where many think Overtimepolitics is not.

[Skye]

Looks like junk.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Just my thought that it's never wise to shoot down a pollster until a good aggregate comes together...or an actual result comes in.

[Ebsy]

I regret posting the first Overtime Politics poll, though someone else probably would have started it had I not. I think we should make a single thread for their junk and stop polluting the rest of the forum with it.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

On the recommendation of Ebsy, I suggest since we are divided ton the accuracy of Overtime Politics and the many questions it, along with the fact that they frequently release polls, we should post each of the GOP and Democratic polls from Overtime Politics below on this thread.

[mds32]

On the recommendation of Ebsy, I suggest since we are divided ton the accuracy of Overtime Politics and the many questions it, along with the fact that they frequently release polls, we should post each of the GOP and Democratic polls from Overtime Politics below on this thread.

This is a good idea. However, I contemplate it because now someone will want a WAA thread and a Gravis Thread....

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I think we could make it work since they post a schedule of all of their polling, Gravis kind of does it randomly usually

[The Other Castro]

From their website: "We plan on releasing at least 2/week between the 13th and next summer. In the final months of the 2016 campaign season, we will be releasing polls on nearly a daily basis."

This is either an extremely fast pollster with a large team, or it's just making up numbers.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

They ask 1 question and don't do crosstabs, not hard to put together a poll like that quickly

[weixiaobao]

From their website: "We plan on releasing at least 2/week between the 13th and next summer. In the final months of the 2016 campaign season, we will be releasing polls on nearly a daily basis."

This is either an extremely fast pollster with a large team, or it's just making up numbers.

Think of them like strawpoll more than scientific polls.  Though, I wonder do they call registered voters?

What is their demographic?  Adults?  Registered voters?  Likely voters?

[The Other Castro]

I emailed them and got this response:

Hi [Name Redacted],

I have a staff of 3 independent contractors who do everything on the phones. Without the crosstab information, the process goes much faster, it's a simple matter of "Are you planning on voting in either the Dem or Rep primary in (whatever state)", if they say yes, they get asked the nominee question depending on whether they said D or R.

From what I gather from my contractors, they can get around 20-25 responses an hour. Once they hit the D or R limit, depending on how each state voted in the last 2 elections, it goes even faster. When I get the last spreadsheet, it's just a matter of copy/pasting the information into 1 spreadsheet and adding everything up.

Without the extra demographic information, the report can be written up extremely quickly and the results can be published.

I realize this isn't perfect, but it's at least getting some information out there.

Starting in January, I'm going to have a question about personal income on the script as well. To me, if I'm going to add something that is going to increase the time spent both calling people and getting the reports ready, it should be a demo that not everyone provides.

I hope I've answered your questions.

- Fred

[King]

Terrible methodology. No model for realistic turnout.

Trash.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

I definitely think it's a good idea to quarantine it to one thread. If their methods become more advanced, then perhaps they can be moved out in due time.

[mds32]

They should have race and gender. Those are two very important demographics.

[A Perez]

I emailed them and got this response:

Hi [Name Redacted],

I have a staff of 3 independent contractors who do everything on the phones. Without the crosstab information, the process goes much faster, it's a simple matter of "Are you planning on voting in either the Dem or Rep primary in (whatever state)", if they say yes, they get asked the nominee question depending on whether they said D or R.

From what I gather from my contractors, they can get around 20-25 responses an hour. Once they hit the D or R limit, depending on how each state voted in the last 2 elections, it goes even faster. When I get the last spreadsheet, it's just a matter of copy/pasting the information into 1 spreadsheet and adding everything up.

Without the extra demographic information, the report can be written up extremely quickly and the results can be published.

I realize this isn't perfect, but it's at least getting some information out there.

Starting in January, I'm going to have a question about personal income on the script as well. To me, if I'm going to add something that is going to increase the time spent both calling people and getting the reports ready, it should be a demo that not everyone provides.

I hope I've answered your questions.

- Fred

So they don't control for ages and race?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I emailed them and got this response:

Hi [Name Redacted],

I have a staff of 3 independent contractors who do everything on the phones. Without the crosstab information, the process goes much faster, it's a simple matter of "Are you planning on voting in either the Dem or Rep primary in (whatever state)", if they say yes, they get asked the nominee question depending on whether they said D or R.

From what I gather from my contractors, they can get around 20-25 responses an hour. Once they hit the D or R limit, depending on how each state voted in the last 2 elections, it goes even faster. When I get the last spreadsheet, it's just a matter of copy/pasting the information into 1 spreadsheet and adding everything up.

Without the extra demographic information, the report can be written up extremely quickly and the results can be published.

I realize this isn't perfect, but it's at least getting some information out there.

Starting in January, I'm going to have a question about personal income on the script as well. To me, if I'm going to add something that is going to increase the time spent both calling people and getting the reports ready, it should be a demo that not everyone provides.

I hope I've answered your questions.

- Fred

So they don't control for ages and race?

Not at this point.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obviously there's some question to how legitimate they are. But they could easily be less biased towards Bernie than PPP is biased towards Hillary.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

On the recommendation of Ebsy, I suggest since we are divided ton the accuracy of Overtime Politics and the many questions it, along with the fact that they frequently release polls, we should post each of the GOP and Democratic polls from Overtime Politics below on this thread.

This is a good idea. However, I contemplate it because now someone will want a WAA thread and a Gravis Thread....

Wiki says the last 3 pollsters for state polls are Overtime, ARG, and Gravis. Even if Overtime's numbers are pulled out of a hat, there's a good chance they're better than at least one of ARG or Gravis.

[This account no longer in use.]

If they really want it to be quick, it's simple:

1. Age
2. Gender
3. Race
4. Income
5. Democratic or Republican primary?
6. Their actual candidate choice

6 questions. Should be able to be finished rather quickly.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If they really want it to be quick, it's simple:

1. Age
2. Gender
3. Race
4. Income
5. Democratic or Republican primary?
6. Their actual candidate choice

6 questions. Should be able to be finished rather quickly.

Yeah, but then people start expecting you to make complex tables breaking everything down along demographic lines - which is work.