Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Thereoterically, once Sanders loses In Iowa & NH, the race will be over, becase SC is Clinton blue wall state

[Fusionmunster]

I love how this pollster doesnt even attempt to break down the demographics of their poll. Im going with outlier and possibly junk.  

Edit: In fact I dont think this pollster even knows the demographics. They randomly called people from public record and only asked who they were voting for in the primary. This poll is so infuriating.

Edit 2: Yep, their a junk pollster (imo) who got lucky with Iowa. Atleast untill proven otherwise. They outright admit their methodology is flawed but since their Iowa poll was close they have no reason to change it.
http://overtimepolitics.com/a-word-about-our-poll-methodology/

[A Perez]

My theory is that Bernie Sanders has gained from hanging out with black rappers who sing about  a bitches and "niggas in the club."  I predict that black people will increasingly flock to Sanders side, because of this hanging out with rappers factor.

[This account no longer in use.]

My theory is that Bernie Sanders has gained from hanging out with black rappers who sing about  a bitches and "niggas in the club."  I predict that black people will increasingly flock to Sanders side, because of this hanging out with rappers factor.

What.

[Eraserhead]

My theory is that Bernie Sanders has gained from hanging out with black rappers who sing about  a bitches and "niggas in the club."  I predict that black people will increasingly flock to Sanders side, because of this hanging out with rappers factor.

Killer Mike sings about "bitches" and "niggas in the club"? News to me.

[Flake]

My theory is that Bernie Sanders has gained from hanging out with black rappers who sing about  a bitches and "niggas in the club."  I predict that black people will increasingly flock to Sanders side, because of this hanging out with rappers factor.

wtf

[Craigo]

My theory is that Bernie Sanders has gained from hanging out with black rappers who sing about  a bitches and "niggas in the club."  I predict that black people will increasingly flock to Sanders side, because of this hanging out with rappers factor.

Killer Mike sings about "bitches" and "niggas in the club"?

Yes. (Well, half right - he doesn't "sing".) Did you even know who Killer Mike was before he endorsed Sanders and became the most important person evar?

[This account no longer in use.]

My theory is that Bernie Sanders has gained from hanging out with black rappers who sing about  a bitches and "niggas in the club."  I predict that black people will increasingly flock to Sanders side, because of this hanging out with rappers factor.

Killer Mike sings about "bitches" and "niggas in the club"?

Yes. (Well, half right - he doesn't "sing".) Did you even know who Killer Mike was before he endorsed Sanders and became the most important person evar?

Killer Mike has made many political rap songs.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-51-39-in-new-nevada-democratic-caucus-poll/

Clinton 51%

Sanders 39%

O'Malley 3%

Undecided 7%

Smallish sample size (about 225 people). They say that they will poll at least once more before the caucus.

[/]

Seems similar to IA.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

The Nevada caucus is the first one after NH for the Dems. This could be a good sign for Sanders. Polling has been relatively sparse in NV; I'm pretty sure that this is the closest poll yet. We'll see if OvertimePolitics is worth anything. I wish that they had a breakdown by LV vs Non-LV along with the usual race/gender breakdowns.

[Mr. Morden]

As I recall, the Nevada caucuses have the same 15% viability threshold in every precinct that Iowa has, don't they?  That's why Edwards got virtually nothing here in 2008.  So whatever low single digit statewide %age O'Malley is getting here is going to end up largely distributed between Clinton and Sanders.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

As I recall, the Nevada caucuses have the same 15% viability threshold in every precinct that Iowa has, don't they?  That's why Edwards got virtually nothing here in 2008.  So whatever low single digit statewide %age O'Malley is getting here is going to end up largely distributed between Clinton and Sanders.

Yeah; they mention that a bit in the article. That would explain why Edwards only got 1.5% in Clark County (LV). It's a lot easier to get 15% or more if there's only 5 people at a caucus.

I really wish that pollsters would ask O'Malley voters who their second choice is.

[Matty]

Considering most democrats in Nevada are Hispanic, the relative closeness here is interesting.

[Fusionmunster]

The Nevada caucus is the first one after NH for the Dems. This could be a good sign for Sanders. Polling has been relatively sparse in NV; I'm pretty sure that this is the closest poll yet. We'll see if OvertimePolitics is worth anything. I wish that they had a breakdown by LV vs Non-LV along with the usual race/gender breakdowns.

They won't because they can't. Their polling methodology consists of looking up phone numbers and asking two question: "Do you plan on voting in the primary?" and "Who are you going to vote for?”.
Regardless of my feelings about these results, it doesn't take an expert to see that you need to take this pollster with a huge grain of salt. They realise that their methodology is flawed but since the results of their Iowa polling was similar to that of Selzer, they feel no pressure in fixing it.

http://overtimepolitics.com/a-word-about-our-poll-methodology/

Considering most democrats in Nevada are Hispanic, the relative closeness here is interesting.

It could be if this was a different pollster.

Edit: I'm not saying to completely ignore them, just take Overtime with a grain of salt. A new polling firm with suspect methodology is not something I'd personally bet money on but in the end who knows.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, Nevada seems like an especially bad state to not do any demographic weighting.  Are they even doing the poll in both English and Spanish?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Wow. That's not even a methodology.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Plus these guys seem to have Sanders over-performing in SC. Be interesting to see how they stack up in the end, considering their lack of an actual methodology

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All things considered, Clinton has a whole delegation of Latino Congresswomen, in the state of NV who supports her.

[Holmes]

I don't trust this poll.

1. Fresh pollster, no previous experience.
2. Nevada is a tough state to poll. Clinton strength is probably underrated for the same reason that D strength is underrated in general election matchups.
3. It's a caucus state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa is too a caucus state and Clinton has an identical lead there.

Sanders have done enough with white liberals, but not nearly enough with other groups

[A Perez]

Overtime politics' website doesn't say who owns it,  where its office is located, phone number, or anything.
The "contact us"  link only gives you an email. http://overtimepolitics.com/contact/

[A Perez]

No one knows who owns overtime, its phone number, etc.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

All things considered, Clinton has a whole delegation of Latino Congresswomen, in the state of NV who supports her.

Isn't she Nevada's lone Democrat in the house?

[ProgressiveCanadian]

All things considered, Clinton has a whole delegation of Latino Congresswomen, in the state of NV who supports her.

Then why is Bush not leading with all his endoresments? Lol