Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)
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Author Topic: Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)  (Read 72331 times)
Ebsy
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« Reply #100 on: December 21, 2015, 05:24:25 AM »
Quote from: President Griffin on December 21, 2015, 02:49:20 AM
I haven't looked at the poll to even see if there's crosstabs, but I do know that my 2012 state-by-state breakdowns for Obama's votes by race showed TX as essentially 33/33/33 Black/White/Latino. If you favor them a bit more toward blacks and whites and Sanders is somehow doing equally well among (non-Hispanic) whites and latinos, then it's possible.
There are no crosstabs. They only ask the horcerace question and don't ask any demographic questions whatsoever, so there is no weighting, no nothing. Their methodology is practically nonexistent.
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A Perez
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« Reply #101 on: December 21, 2015, 08:29:42 AM »
They also don't have contact information who owns it etc.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #102 on: December 21, 2015, 08:37:19 AM »
Ted Cruz will ultimately win here.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #103 on: December 21, 2015, 08:38:20 AM »
« Edited: December 21, 2015, 11:07:03 AM by OC »
Clinton ultimately got the Latino vote & Castro bros have endorsed her
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #104 on: December 21, 2015, 09:01:43 AM »
Quote from: OC on December 21, 2015, 08:38:20 AM
Clinton ultimately got the Latino vote & Castro bros have endorsed h'


h'?  Is that like the reduced Planck constant?
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A Perez
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« Reply #105 on: December 21, 2015, 11:05:09 AM »
Overtime has outliers everywhere but Iowa. It is possible that  a Sanders surrogate created this polling firm in order to exaggerate Sanders' numbers..the polling firm owner and location are not listed in its mysteriously untransparent WordPress website. A person in this board recently said their methodology is unlisted as well.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #106 on: December 21, 2015, 11:12:50 AM »
Quote from: Ebsy on December 21, 2015, 01:34:39 AM
Sanders is not doing this well in Texas.

Texas Democrats could be more liberal than Democrats nationwide. It's just that there are far fewer Democrats than Republicans in Texas.  I think that I saw the same pattern in Montana and Utah.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #107 on: December 21, 2015, 11:14:16 AM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on December 21, 2015, 11:12:50 AM
Quote from: Ebsy on December 21, 2015, 01:34:39 AM
Sanders is not doing this well in Texas.

Texas Democrats could be more liberal than Democrats nationwide. It's just that there are far fewer Democrats than Republicans in Texas.  I think that I saw the same pattern in Montana and Utah.

No, it's because of the Blaxicans not degree of liberalness
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RI
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« Reply #108 on: December 21, 2015, 12:22:26 PM »
How is 34% outlandishly high for Sanders here? Huh

Bill Clinton himself only got 65% in Texas in 1992. That leaves 35% against him, and that was with way more conservative white Democrats than exist in Texas in 2016.
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defe07
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« Reply #109 on: December 21, 2015, 01:38:06 PM »
Decent showing for Rand in TX! Smiley
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cxs018
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« Reply #110 on: December 21, 2015, 03:36:33 PM »
Still... who the hell is Overtime Politics?
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #111 on: December 21, 2015, 03:49:21 PM »
I really don't trust this pollster.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #112 on: December 22, 2015, 09:55:38 PM »
I know we still have a fair bit of uncertainty about OT Politics but here's their democratic poll:

Hillary Clinton – 230 – 52%
Bernie Sanders – 173 – 39%
Martin O’Malley – 9 – 2%
Undecided – 31 – 7%

Someone else will have to post the link as I'm not up to 20 posts yet Wink
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #113 on: December 22, 2015, 09:57:10 PM »
link: http://overtimepolitics.com/hillary-clinton-leads-bernie-sanders-52-39-in-massachusetts/
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #114 on: December 22, 2015, 09:59:33 PM »
By the way, I did happen to notice on a twitter search earlier ( when looking up overtime politics in the twitter search) that one of the bernie sanders twitter account said "welcome a new account to the bernieverse!" with a link to their twitter.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #115 on: December 22, 2015, 10:07:39 PM »
why do they do more dem primary than the GOP primary? 
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Ebsy
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« Reply #116 on: December 22, 2015, 10:09:58 PM »
Junk.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #117 on: December 22, 2015, 10:17:17 PM »
Quote from: weixiaobao on December 22, 2015, 10:07:39 PM
why do they do more dem primary than the GOP primary? 
I think they have a GOP one coming out soon as well
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cxs018
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« Reply #118 on: December 22, 2015, 10:21:57 PM »
Who are Overtime Politics, why are they polling my state, and why is Sanders supposedly doing so good in a state completely in the Clinton-Trump mold?
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A Perez
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« Reply #119 on: December 22, 2015, 11:36:55 PM »
« Edited: December 22, 2015, 11:42:15 PM by A Perez »
Quote from: weixiaobao on December 22, 2015, 10:07:39 PM
why do they do more dem primary than the GOP primary?  
RCP and HuffPo seem to not be taking them seriously.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #120 on: December 22, 2015, 11:47:15 PM »
Quote from: A Perez on December 22, 2015, 11:36:55 PM
Quote from: weixiaobao on December 22, 2015, 10:07:39 PM
why do they do more dem primary than the GOP primary?  
RCP and HuffPo seem to not be taking them seriously.

HuffPo tend to update new data from new pollster really late.  Sometimes a month later. 

RCP is the picky one.  But they take almost all state polls.  Though, this pollster being new, may not be on their radar.

Atlas is the only place that update the fastest because multiple people using google and all.
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #121 on: December 22, 2015, 11:51:37 PM »
Quote from: cxs018 on December 22, 2015, 10:21:57 PM
Who are Overtime Politics, why are they polling my state, and why is Sanders supposedly doing so good in a state completely in the Clinton-Trump mold?

This is Warren's home state - she was floated as a Clinton alternative until Sanders entered, and has notably refused to endorse Hillary. Plus, the state is very liberal unless it's a gubernatorial race and/or Coakley is the den nominee.

It will probably be Sanders's 4th best state on Super Tuesday, after VT, CO, and MN.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #122 on: December 23, 2015, 01:14:42 AM »
http://overtimepolitics.com/trump-takes-substantial-23-point-lead-in-massachusetts-40-17-over-rubio/

GOP #s
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #123 on: December 23, 2015, 01:24:35 AM »
Quote from: Wulfric on December 22, 2015, 11:51:37 PM
It will probably be Sanders's 4th best state on Super Tuesday, after VT, CO, and MN.

That's not really saying much... he'll lose the remaining states by 20-40 points.
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cxs018
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« Reply #124 on: December 23, 2015, 01:26:27 AM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on December 23, 2015, 01:24:35 AM
Quote from: Wulfric on December 22, 2015, 11:51:37 PM
It will probably be Sanders's 4th best state on Super Tuesday, after VT, CO, and MN.

That's not really saying much... he'll lose the remaining states by 20-40 points.

And what about Trump...?
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