Cruz iowa

[jman123]

What if cruz decisively wins iowa? What would probably occur?

[Holmes]

Well, he'd place maybe, at best, fourth in New Hampshire a few days later. Then second in South Carolina, and maybe second or third in Nevada. His direct competition going into Super Tuesday will be Trump. Trump wins all non-Southern states, and most Southern states are close fights between the two. Cruz ends up dropping out though, because there's not much fertile ground left for Cruz after Super Tuesday, and endorses Trump.

[Why]

Well, he'd place maybe, at best, fourth in New Hampshire a few days later. Then second in South Carolina, and maybe second or third in Nevada. His direct competition going into Super Tuesday will be Trump. Trump wins all non-Southern states, and most Southern states are close fights between the two. Cruz ends up dropping out though, because there's not much fertile ground left for Cruz after Super Tuesday, and endorses Trump.

Seems reasonable although I would not rule out him doing better than 4th in NH if he does win Iowa easily.

[Holmes]

Well, he'd place maybe, at best, fourth in New Hampshire a few days later. Then second in South Carolina, and maybe second or third in Nevada. His direct competition going into Super Tuesday will be Trump. Trump wins all non-Southern states, and most Southern states are close fights between the two. Cruz ends up dropping out though, because there's not much fertile ground left for Cruz after Super Tuesday, and endorses Trump.

Seems reasonable although I would not rule out him doing better than 4th in NH if he does win Iowa easily.

Santorum got fourth place in New Hampshire in 2012 after winning Iowa.

[Classic Conservative]

Well, he'd place maybe, at best, fourth in New Hampshire a few days later. Then second in South Carolina, and maybe second or third in Nevada. His direct competition going into Super Tuesday will be Trump. Trump wins all non-Southern states, and most Southern states are close fights between the two. Cruz ends up dropping out though, because there's not much fertile ground left for Cruz after Super Tuesday, and endorses Trump.

Seems reasonable although I would not rule out him doing better than 4th in NH if he does win Iowa easily.

Santorum got fourth place in New Hampshire in 2012 after winning Iowa.

Santorum won by 13 votes or so and it wasn't determined till a few weeks later I think even after NH and if Cruz wins in a mandate I think he will get 2nd or 3rd.

[Uhh_murican]

The Republican establishment will have to face the difficult choice of whether to back the only candidate who has a realistic shot of taking out Trump.

[Holmes]

Well, he'd place maybe, at best, fourth in New Hampshire a few days later. Then second in South Carolina, and maybe second or third in Nevada. His direct competition going into Super Tuesday will be Trump. Trump wins all non-Southern states, and most Southern states are close fights between the two. Cruz ends up dropping out though, because there's not much fertile ground left for Cruz after Super Tuesday, and endorses Trump.

Seems reasonable although I would not rule out him doing better than 4th in NH if he does win Iowa easily.

Santorum got fourth place in New Hampshire in 2012 after winning Iowa.

Santorum won by 13 votes or so and it wasn't determined till a few weeks later I think even after NH and if Cruz wins in a mandate I think he will get 2nd or 3rd.

Alright, in 2008, Huckabee wins Iowa by nearly 10%, gets a pathetic third place finish in New Hampshire a few days later, 21% away from Romney's second place finish and only 2% away from fourth place.

If a candidate has consistently been doing poorly in New Hampshire during the campaign, voters in the state aren't going to say "damn, this guy won Iowa, I have to vote for him now!" They're going to stay with whomever they've been supporting the whole time. Same with South Carolina.

[Classic Conservative]

Well, he'd place maybe, at best, fourth in New Hampshire a few days later. Then second in South Carolina, and maybe second or third in Nevada. His direct competition going into Super Tuesday will be Trump. Trump wins all non-Southern states, and most Southern states are close fights between the two. Cruz ends up dropping out though, because there's not much fertile ground left for Cruz after Super Tuesday, and endorses Trump.

Seems reasonable although I would not rule out him doing better than 4th in NH if he does win Iowa easily.

Santorum got fourth place in New Hampshire in 2012 after winning Iowa.

Santorum won by 13 votes or so and it wasn't determined till a few weeks later I think even after NH and if Cruz wins in a mandate I think he will get 2nd or 3rd.

Alright, in 2008, Huckabee wins Iowa by nearly 10%, gets a pathetic third place finish in New Hampshire a few days later, 21% away from Romney's second place finish and only 2% away from fourth place.

If a candidate has consistently been doing poorly in New Hampshire during the campaign, voters in the state aren't going to say "damn, this guy won Iowa, I have to vote for him now!" They're going to stay with whomever they've been supporting the whole time. Same with South Carolina.

Ok I understand what you are saying but Huckabee and Santorum ran as the evangelical social con of the year while Cruz is running as an evangelical social con but he is also the tea party, liberty, small government guy and that is why he can get higher than both of them.

[Lord of the Dome]

Cruz's performance in New Hampshire coming off the back of a strong showing in Iowa probably isn't particularly critical to his campaign provided he doesn't do unexpectedly poorly. Whats more important to him is who ends up winning the state.

As I see it the best thing Cruz can hope for is that beating Trump in Iowa wrecks his narrative of being a winner who gets results which sparks a bandwagon effect of his poll numbers declining but still leaves his collapsing candidacy strong enough to win New Hampshire. The hope here for Cruz is that Trump continues to fall apart regardless but that by denying either Rubio or Christie a victory in New Hampshire their candidacies take similar hits, especially after what I would then imagine to be a convincing Cruz victory in South Carolina. From that point Rubio would win Nevada to nil effect and Cruz could sweep most of the super Tuesday states which would solidify his position and allow him to cruise comfortably to the nomination.

If either Christie or Rubio wins New Hampshire though I'd expect Cruz to have a far tougher time on Super Tuesday but he'd definitely still be in the contest.

[Blair]

But Cruz isn't investing in New Hampshire-I haven't even seen him make any big visits. People like Christie, Fiorina, Kasich, Bush and Rubio all have much better ground games in the state

[Kingpoleon]

At this point in 2012, Gingrich lead in Iowa.

[Landslide Lyndon]

At this point in 2012, Gingrich lead in Iowa.

Gigrich and Santorum were has-beens filling the void of anti-Romney and ran shoestring campaigns. Cruz instead has impressed everyone with his campaign strategy and fundraising. He is in a MUCH better position.

[Sir Mohamed]

Cruz won't win NH, that is certain.

[Classic Conservative]

But Cruz isn't investing in New Hampshire-I haven't even seen him make any big visits. People like Christie, Fiorina, Kasich, Bush and Rubio all have much better ground games in the state

Cruz is definitely investing in NH but not as big as the others, I have gone to about 3 or 4 of his events granted he doesn't go every single week beacuse the campaigns main focus is Iowa but to say he isn't investing is false he definitely has a high level of grassroots support up there.