New DMR/Selzer IA polls out later today

[Broken System]

Clinton - 48%
Sanders - 40%
O'Malley - 3%

[Maxwell]

I think we're probably on the verge of the Pataki breakout moment.

When he steals Kasich's campaign bus.

[Eraserhead]

Clinton +9
Cruz +4

[The Other Castro]

"HUGE shakeup in the Iowa GOP race. Full @bpolitics/@DMRegister poll results coming soon at 6pm ET. "

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It can't be Rubio? Could it?

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Clinton leads by under 10; O'Malley with 4-6%

Cruz leads narrowly; Trump in second with a bit over 20%; Rubio in 3rd at 15-20%; Carson in 4th with 10-12%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Cruz 29%
Rubio 16%
Trump 15%
Carson 12%
Paul 6%
Bush 5%
Everyone else <5%

[Eraserhead]

"HUGE shakeup in the Iowa GOP race. Full @bpolitics/@DMRegister poll results coming soon at 6pm ET. "

Well, Carson had a decent lead in their last poll, so there was really no way that there wasn't going be a significant change from that.

[Lief 🗽]

"HUGE shakeup in the Iowa GOP race. Full @bpolitics/@DMRegister poll results coming soon at 6pm ET. "

Well, Carson had a decent lead in their last poll, so there was really no way that there wasn't going be a significant change from that.

Yeah, technically Trump having a huge lead in this poll would be a "HUGE shakeup", soooo...

But considering the anti-TRUMP bias of the DMR and some of the disparaging comments this Selzer woman has made about TRUMP supporters in the past, it's not likely.

[Bull Moose Base]

Are they releasing Democratic numbers today too?

If you compare the past 2 DMRs with contemporary Monmouths, they're somewhat close.
Monmouth 8/27-30 --- DMR 8/23-26
Trump 23 --- Trump 23
Carson 23 --- Carson 18
Cruz  9 --- Cruz 8
Rubio 4 --- Rubio 6
Fiorina 10 --- Fiorina 5

Monmouth 10/22-25 --- DMR 10/16-19
Carson 32 --- Carson 28
Trump 18 --- Trump 19
Cruz 10 --- Cruz 10
Rubio 10 --- Rubio 9

And the most recent Monmouth 12/23-6
Cruz 24
Trump 19
Rubio 17
Carson 13

That's the only recent Iowa poll where Cruz has led so if DMR finds the same, and maybe by even more than 5, that counts as a "huge shake-up".

Edit: If Cruz is leading Iowa by 10 or close to it, what crazy thing will Trump say to try to salvage it?

[OkThen]

Maybe Carson collapse has put Trump and Cruz way ahead of everyone else? Similar to what PPP says they started to see?

[/]

He'll probably be behind Cruz and close to Rubio, even though of course that's not accurate.

[Ebsy]

Nothing better than a weekend SHOCK POLL.

[Torie]

Come to think of it, maybe Trump got wind of this poll, and that was what caused him to do his Cruz Evangelical riff.

[The Other Castro]

Breaking: According to Drudge: CRUZ 29%, TRUMP 22%, RUBIO 13%, CARSON 11%

[Ebsy]

Breaking: According to Drudge: CRUZ 29%, TRUMP 22%, RUBIO 13%, CARSON 11%

Drudge has pulled out the animated sirens for this SHOCK POLL.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Breaking: According to Drudge: CRUZ 29%, TRUMP 22%, RUBIO 13%, CARSON 11%

Drudge has pulled out the animated sirens for this SHOCK POLL.

Shocking!!!

[Eraserhead]

Breaking: According to Drudge: CRUZ 29%, TRUMP 22%, RUBIO 13%, CARSON 11%

So it's a Cruz-Trump race then. Mega-surge for Cruz but Trump has moved up a little too. It's gonna be funny to see the GOP Establishment have to at least tacitly back Cruz.

Are we not getting Democratic numbers until tomorrow?

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, really good numbers for TRUMP when you take into account Selzer's house effect and DMR's bias against him. As long as TRUMP gets second here and wins in New Hampshire, he's in good shape.

[Torie]

Breaking: According to Drudge: CRUZ 29%, TRUMP 22%, RUBIO 13%, CARSON 11%

So it's a Cruz-Trump race then. Mega-surge for Cruz but Trump has moved up a little too. It's gonna be funny to see the GOP Establishment have to at least tacitly back Cruz.

Are we not getting Democratic numbers until tomorrow?

I am not sure the Pub establishment likes Cruz any better than Trump, or that Cruz would do less down ballot damage than Trump.

[Beezer]

Lame shock poll. Biggest letdown since the introduction of the Segway.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Breaking: According to Drudge: CRUZ 29%, TRUMP 22%, RUBIO 13%, CARSON 11%

So it's a Cruz-Trump race then. Mega-surge for Cruz but Trump has moved up a little too. It's gonna be funny to see the GOP Establishment have to at least tacitly back Cruz.

Are we not getting Democratic numbers until tomorrow?

I am not sure the Pub establishment likes Cruz any better than Trump, or that Cruz would do less down ballot damage than Trump.

Well, if you have to choose between contracting AIDS or cholera then...

[Donnie]

and Jeb! ??

[Ebsy]

I'm interested to see the Democratic numbers as well though.

[RogueBeaver]

Cruz 31
Trump 21
Carson 13
Rubio 10
Jeb! 6

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/12/12/big-shakeup-iowa-poll-cruz-soars-lead/77199800/