New DMR/Selzer IA polls out later today
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 10, 2025, 11:23:43 AM
News: Election Calculator 3.0 with county/house maps is now live. For more info, click here

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  New DMR/Selzer IA polls out later today		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: New DMR/Selzer IA polls out later today  (Read 4276 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,483
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 12, 2015, 02:18:53 PM »
At 6pm Eastern.

My prediction:

25% Cruz
24% Trump
14% Rubio
12% Carson
  5% Bush
  4% Paul
  3% Fiorina
  2% Christie
  2% Huckabee
  2% Kasich
  2% Others
  5% Undecided

51% Clinton
39% Sanders
  5% O'Malley
  5% Undecided
Logged
Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,627


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2015, 02:21:29 PM »
Did the poll begin before Bob V Plaats endorse Cruz???
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,486
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2015, 02:22:43 PM »
My prediction:

Dems
Clinton - 53%
Sanders - 38%
O'Malley - 3%

GOP:
Trump - 25%
Cruz - 23%
Rubio - 16%
Carson - 12%
Bush - 4%
Paul - 3%
Fiorina - 3%
Christie - 2%
Huckabee - 2%
All others <2
Logged
F_S_USATN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2015, 02:33:06 PM »
Clinton 50
Sanders 41
O'Malley 3

Cruz 24
Trump 22
Rubio 15
Carson 14
Bush 5
Paul 4
Fiorina 3
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
Santorum 1
Kasich 1
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,040


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2015, 02:35:50 PM »
My prediction

Democrats:
who care

Republicans:
Cruz 30
Trump 19
Rubio 11
Carson 10

DMR is very anti-Trump. We'll see what kind of result they put together to attack him tonight.
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,249
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2015, 02:37:14 PM »
I never do this, but since Trump's hyping it, I'll oblige

Cruz 28
Trump 18
Rubio 13
Carson 11
Paul 5
Bush 3
Everyone Else who care
Logged
Beezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,908


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2015, 02:37:34 PM »
There's rumors on the internets that Trump is in third.
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,113


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2015, 02:38:44 PM »
Quote from: Beezer on December 12, 2015, 02:37:34 PM
There's rumors on the internets that Trump is in third.

That doesn't square with PPP's comments.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,483
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2015, 02:41:04 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on December 12, 2015, 02:35:50 PM
DMR is very anti-Trump. We'll see what kind of result they put together to attack him tonight.

That's ridiculous. The poll is done by Selzer (which has generally produced really good IA and caucus polls before) and not the newspaper ...
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,226
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2015, 02:55:32 PM »
Cruz - 22%
Rubio - 18%
Trump -  15%

DMR has pretty much already confirmed that Trump is not in first.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,040


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2015, 02:58:26 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on December 12, 2015, 02:41:04 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on December 12, 2015, 02:35:50 PM
DMR is very anti-Trump. We'll see what kind of result they put together to attack him tonight.

That's ridiculous. The poll is done by Selzer (which has generally produced really good IA and caucus polls before) and not the newspaper ...

They have a very strong anti-Trump house effect, for whatever reason.
Logged
OkThen
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 274


Political Matrix
E: -2.32, S: 0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2015, 02:59:46 PM »
I keep seeing people say that the poll is going to "change the narrative". How can one poll, even a DMR poll, do that? Unless Trump is like down to single digits or something? Or Cruz is in the 30's?
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,455
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2015, 03:01:04 PM »
Selzer is probably the single most reliable pollster there is for Iowa. I suspect:

28% Cruz
17% Trump
15% Rubio
10% Carson
4% Paul
3% Bush
lol% everyone else
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,113


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2015, 03:04:38 PM »
A. Their last poll was Carson 28, Trump 19

B. Where does this Trump in third rumor come from?
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,493
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2015, 03:07:05 PM »
Whatever Trump's Iowa numbers from DMR, they are going to go down after Trump's crack about Cruz's Evangelical credentials being suspect because he's Cuban. That is not going to sit well with Evangelicals in Iowa, who are about 40% of the Pub caucus goers.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,455
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2015, 03:30:46 PM »
Quote from: Torie on December 12, 2015, 03:07:05 PM
Whatever Trump's Iowa numbers from DMR, they are going to go down after Trump's crack about Cruz's Evangelical credentials being suspect because he's Cuban. That is not going to sit well with Evangelicals in Iowa, who are about 40% of the Pub caucus goers.

He literally said the people of Iowa were stupid, if you think this is going to do damage you sorely mistaken.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,402
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 12, 2015, 03:33:54 PM »
Quote from: realisticidealist on December 12, 2015, 03:04:38 PM
A. Their last poll was Carson 28, Trump 19

B. Where does this Trump in third rumor come from?

B. PPP is polling Iowa this weekend. PPP does not leak partial results while still polling.

Selzer is really, really good.
Logged
Bull Moose Base
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,488


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 12, 2015, 03:37:27 PM »
No one here has Carson still in the top 3? I'll say he's still ahead of Rubio and close to Trump.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,455
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 12, 2015, 03:41:52 PM »
Quote from: Bull Moose Base on December 12, 2015, 03:37:27 PM
No one here has Carson still in the top 3? I'll say he's still ahead of Rubio and close to Trump.

Nah. I think Carson is declining so precipitously that he'll be behind Rubs. I could be wrong, though.
Logged
Progressive
jro660
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,616


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 12, 2015, 03:53:10 PM »
I think we're probably on the verge of the Pataki breakout moment.
Logged
Spiral
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,676
Bosnia and Herzegovina


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 12, 2015, 03:54:22 PM »
Cruz - 24%
Rubio - 19%
Trump - 18%
Carson - 14%
Paul - 5%
Bush - 4%
Fiorina - 3%
Huckabee - 3%
Christie - 2%
Kasich - 2%
Santorum - 1%
Graham - 0%
Gilmore - 0%
Pataki - 0%
Logged
Progressive
jro660
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,616


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: December 12, 2015, 03:56:10 PM »
But in all seriousness, my guess is:

Cruz up by several points let's say 25% or so and then Trump/Rubio basically tied maybe Rubio 17% and Trump 16% something like that.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,226
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: December 12, 2015, 03:59:30 PM »
Thing to watch for:
-How big Cruz's lead is
-Who is in 2nd place
-Is Paul at 5% or higher?
Logged
Broken System
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 429


Political Matrix
E: 0.26, S: 4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: December 12, 2015, 04:04:05 PM »
Cruz - 25%
Trump - 20%
Rubio - 14%
Carson - 14%
Bush - 4%
Paul - 3%
Christie - 3%
Huckabee - 3%
Fiorina - 2%
Santorum - 2%
Kasich - 1%
Graham - 0%
Pataki - 0%
Gilmore - 0%
Logged
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,438


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: December 12, 2015, 04:04:35 PM »
Can someone fill me in on why folks think trump is not in first? Did DMR leak something?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.043 seconds with 7 queries.