Can anyone still stop Trump, even one on one?

[Uhh_murican]

I'm coming around to the conclusion that Trump is the likely Republican nominee. The idea that Trump can still be stopped depends upon the idea that if a bunch of the candidates were to drop out, then Trump will still be stuck with about 30% of the vote, and the rest of the vote would be an "anti-Trump vote" which would consolidate some sort other candidate. But Trump has been strong for months, and only seems to be getting stronger.

I'm looking at the most recent youguv poll, which has individual matchups between Trump and other Republicans. http :// uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=224486.0

Among likely Republican primary voters, it is:

Carson vs Trump:
Carson 40%
Trump 60%

Cruz vs Trump:
Cruz 51%
Trump 49%

Rubio vs Trump:
Rubio 49%
Trump 51%

So the idea that there is this big anti-Trump vote just waiting to be consolidated doesn't really seem to be borne out by the polling data. The most that can be said is *if* all the candidates but one other than Trump were to suddenly drop out, then the matchup between Trump and that other candidate *might* be competitive. But it is not plausible that all of the candidates will suddenly drop out - even after a few primaries. The lesson of 2012 is that if you stay in, eventually you may surge like Santorum, Gingrich, Cain, etc all did. So everyone will want a chance to be the anti-Trump, and many candidates will stay in - thus depriving any one candidate from actually becoming a viable anti-Trump.

It seems that the only remotely plausible scenario in which Trump does not become the nominee is if Cruz wins Iowa, then comes out of that with a bunch of momentum and does very well in New Hampshire South Carolina. At that point, other candidates would start to drop out, and Cruz would have a chance to consolidate support before all the delegates get handed out. But even then, as the polls seem to show, it would be a very close run thing, and there is no telling if Cruz would actually beat Trump one on one.

Maybe a similar scenario would be plausible for Rubio, but at this point he doesn't seem to actually have much of a shot at Iowa (or New Hampshire), and without that, it will be difficult for him to emerge as the anti-Trump. Despite the hype from establishment types, he is lagging. Carson of course is out of the picture by now, and all the other candidates have no realistic shot.

So it seems to me that at this point you have to say that Trump is the likely nominee, and by far and away the most realistic "establishment alternative" to Trump is Cruz, which is to say there isn't an establishment alternative.