GOP elite discusses options for a contested convention

[Mr. Morden]

A contested convention is a serious longshot, but it's not absolutely impossible.  And I do think it's a bit more likely this time around than most other years, for the same basic reason that the 538 crew spells out in this conversation:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-brokered-convention-donald-trump/

This election cycle features at least one (Trump) but possibly several (Cruz, Carson) candidates who the party elite would go to war with in order to stop them from winning the nomination, who are polling well enough that they could get a big block of delegates.  Many of them see a contested convention as preferable to allowing any of those folks to be nominated.  Contrast that with a year like 2008, where sure, candidates like Huckabee were causing big concerns on electability and Giuliani was causing concern about splitting the party on abortion.  But that's small time compared to the concerns about Trump.

So in a normal year, one of the "acceptable" candidates gets on a roll in terms of primary victories, and the leadership then tries to nudge everyone towards consensus on that candidate.  This time, if Trump or Cruz start winning a bunch of primaries, I don't see it playing out like that, which means a greater chance of some kind of 3- or 4-way split.

[Though I do think the 538 guys are still overestimating the chances of this happening.  And if it does happen, the nomination could still be resolved in the intervening period between the primaries and the convention, meaning you still go into the convention with a putative nominee.  Everyone will know who the delegates are, so any "deal" among persuadable delegates could be cut before day 1 of the convention, to prevent the chaos of a convention with no one in charge.]

[Torie]

Sure, if nobody has a majority, the odds are high it will be negotiated out before the convention, and after the last primary.

[Blair]

Besides it's most likely going to become Trump v Rubio v Cruz, as the other 17 will drop out bar any miracles in the first 4 states (maybe Christie can run on fumes after NH),

On the point of these dodgy legal attempts it screams of what Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham were trying to do in the Labour leadership this summer-it makes you absolutely awful if you're best hope is some loophole. Ted Kennedy tried it in 1980, and if it wasn't for his speech he'd be remembered as ruining Jimmy Carter.

If Trump has a majority of more than 100 delegates then give him the nomination

[Suburbia]

It's possible, but it would damage the GOP's chances in the Senate, House, state legislatures (especially in NYS Senate), with some suburban voters in Long Island, Philly suburbs, etc.

[ProudModerate2]

I just read this from a CNN article this morning. I never heard of this rule. Does anyone know more about it ?

Another contributing factor to concerns about a brokered convention is a new Republican National Committee rule that requires any GOP nominee win a majority of delegates from eight different states, a hurdle that could potentially be too high in such a fractured field.

[RI]

I just read this from a CNN article this morning. I never heard of this rule. Does anyone know more about it ?

Another contributing factor to concerns about a brokered convention is a new Republican National Committee rule that requires any GOP nominee win a majority of delegates from eight different states, a hurdle that could potentially be too high in such a fractured field.

WTA delegations make that not terribly difficult. There are 8 WTA states and ~20 WTA by CD (or very similar) states that are fairly easy to get a majority of delegates in.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Hopefully the Constitution Party is keeping its ballot acces open for the inevitable TRUMP third party run.

Trump is not a Constitutionalist in any sense of the term.

[Lief 🗽]

Hopefully the Constitution Party is keeping its ballot acces open for the inevitable TRUMP third party run.

Trump is not a Constitutionalist in any sense of the term.

Sure, but he'd guarantee the party at least 10% national support. They might consider that worth it.

[IceSpear]

Hopefully the Constitution Party is keeping its ballot acces open for the inevitable TRUMP third party run.

Trump is not a Constitutionalist in any sense of the term.

Sure, but he'd guarantee the party at least 10% national support. They might consider that worth it.

Fringe parties are usually controlled by the true believers though. Hasn't the Socialist Party disowned Sanders? I doubt the LP is a huge fan of Rand either.

[The_Doctor]

No brokered convention. Someone will be the GOP nominee. It will not be Trump or Carson. Likely Rubio or Cruz or a dark horse. Trump will forego a third party run (he's too likely to be tagged as the second coming of George Wallace).

I still think the GOP prevails in November over Clinton.