What happens in Clinton vs. Trump?

[Lyin' Steve]

It's looking increasingly likely that Clinton's challenger will be Trump.  Rubio and Cruz just aren't catching fire like they're supposed to be.  It's time for us as a sane country to realistically think about how to ensure Trump never gets his hands on actual power.

What is the safest strategy for Hillary Clinton that maximizes her odds of winning?

[Reaganfan]

Terrible scenario. Please tell me why the two candidates with the highest unfavorables are currently leading for their parties nominations?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Terrible scenario. Please tell me why the two candidates with the highest unfavorables are currently leading for their parties nominations?

Because they are popular with their party which causes the other party to turn them into a villain? Trump's favorables are quite high, dude.

[Reaganfan]

Terrible scenario. Please tell me why the two candidates with the highest unfavorables are currently leading for their parties nominations?

Because they are popular with their party which causes the other party to turn them into a villain? Trump's favorables are quite high, dude.

I don't believe the American people want Trump or Hillary. I really don't.

[Holmes]

Terrible scenario. Please tell me why the two candidates with the highest unfavorables are currently leading for their parties nominations?

Because they are popular with their party which causes the other party to turn them into a villain? Trump's favorables are quite high, dude.

I don't believe the American people want Trump or Hillary. I really don't.

Then they should take part in the primary process because those that are currently want Hillary and Trump, duuuuude.

[King]

Terrible scenario. Please tell me why the two candidates with the highest unfavorables are currently leading for their parties nominations?

Because they are popular with their party which causes the other party to turn them into a villain? Trump's favorables are quite high, dude.

I don't believe the American people want Trump or Hillary. I really don't.

True, the polls say the American people clearly want Obama for a third term or Joe Biden. Unfortunately neither is possible.

[RogueBeaver]

Clinton wins by a margin between 1988 and 2008.

[King]

Another thing to factor with TRUMP is the potential realignment factor of angering the Latino community. The turnout of Latinos (citizens not immigrants) is only 48% nationwide versus 58% total population.

I'd be really interested to see how Hillary would do in Arizona or Texas.

[Likely Voter]

something like 2008 map but maybe flip IN and AZ.   Trump has zero chance.  He may do better than Romney with non-college white men, but he will do worse with probably every other group.

[Crumpets]

Trump is shrewd enough that he can probably strategically backtrack on some of the things he said to win over some of the more easily swayed voters, but if he does so, he risks the ultra-right not turning out and voting for him. So to some extent, he's painted himself into something of a corner. I imagine the PV margin would be something like 2008, but I don't see Indiana going D. Arizona, Missouri, and Georgia would all be close, and it would all come down to which groups turns out. If Hispanic anger at Trump lasts until the election, I could see Arizona being the first to flip.

[ProudModerate2]

Terrible scenario. Please tell me why the two candidates with the highest unfavorables are currently leading for their parties nominations?

Because they are popular with their party which causes the other party to turn them into a villain? Trump's favorables are quite high, dude.

The other party does not need to make Trump look like "a villain" ....
Trump does this job so well, to himself, that it is not necessary.

[ProudModerate2]

I'd be really interested to see how Hillary would do in Arizona or Texas.

If Hispanic anger at Trump lasts until the election, I could see Arizona being the first to flip.

Hillary (vs Trump) may increase the Dem vote in Texas slightly. But not nearly enough to take this State.
Now Arizona is another story ... and could possibly flip (by the smallest possible margin).

[Comrade Funk]

I can't wait for the debates already!

[RI]

The Univision polls of Hispanics show they aren't much more anti-Trump than they were anti-Romney last time around.

Anyway, I think there are two broad cases that would occur in this scenario. First is that Trump really does as poorly as the left thinks, women turn out en masse for Hillary, Hispanics turn out in record numbers, etc., and we get something like this:

I think this is pretty much Hillary's ceiling.

However, simply by the fact that Trump has won the nomination in this case, this demonstrates that Trump does indeed have the ability to bring in disaffected non-voters onto his campaign. Combined with the fact that international candidates of Trump's profile often under-poll, I'd give the following a much greater chance of happening than most on this forum:

I think this is Trump's realistic ceiling.

[madelka]

Democratic landslide in the electoral college (347-430 EV), Democrats win back the Senate (picking up FL+IL+WI+PA+NH+IN+MO+NC) for a 54-46 Democratic majority and pick up around 20 seats in the House.

[Torie]

Why do you think a mass of red avatars, or people who should be red avatars (hi Lief), are pushing hard for Trump as the Pub nominee? They have been fed Pub nominee disasters before in Senate races, and that has just wetted their appetite for more of the same. The nuttier the Pubs are, the happier they are.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I think this is Trump's realistic ceiling.

Oh come on --- I'm not saying he's going to win it, but if you are calling it a ceiling, and a poll by PPP has Trump in the lead in Pennsylvania, how is that not in the ceiling? That's as of two months ago. Trump also should have an exceptionally high ceiling if you consider the desire for a security candidate from non-traditional sources based on future events (at home or abroad) that could stir up emotions.

[Ljube]

Why do you think a mass of red avatars, or people who should be red avatars (hi Lief), are pushing hard for Trump as the Pub nominee? They have been fed Pub nominee disasters before in Senate races, and that has just wetted their appetite for more of the same. The nuttier the Pubs are, the happier they are.

Fast Forward GE time. Do you think Lief will continue to be pro Trump?

By the way, why aren't you blue avatar as you should be?

[Ljube]

I think this is Trump's realistic ceiling.

Yeah I'm sure angry NH women who voted for Jeanne Shaheen, Maggie Hassan and Hillary Clinton are totally wild about Trump. Democrats are winning UT before Trump carries NH.

Trump will carry Nevada, though.

[Landslide Lyndon]

As I've said before, the Republican establishment will probably abandon Trump and help (discreetly or not) Hillary.
TRUMP is anathema for them and the long-term prospects of the party, so they will prefer to sacrifice the White House and salvage their congressional majorities.

[Torie]

Why do you think a mass of red avatars, or people who should be red avatars (hi Lief), are pushing hard for Trump as the Pub nominee? They have been fed Pub nominee disasters before in Senate races, and that has just wetted their appetite for more of the same. The nuttier the Pubs are, the happier they are.

Fast Forward GE time. Do you think Lief will continue to be pro Trump?

By the way, why aren't you blue avatar as you should be?

No, of course not. He just enjoys operation chaos ops vis a vis the opposition. And he probably does think that Trump is the only mensch in the field in a sea of nebbishes, worthy of some respect no matter how dangerous the guy might otherwise be. He knows full well that Trump will never be elected, so it really does not matter how dangerous he might be if he were elected. Thus he thinks he's just doing the Lord's work.

Because I am now a registered Democrat in NY, due to local reasons. I am active in local Dem politics actually. My best friend locally was until recently the local Democrat party chairmen. We like one another and respect one another, and trust each other totally. In any event, these days, I really don't have a strong party preference. Both parties on a national level are very deeply flawed. It's very sad actually.

No matter how old I get, life for me will always be a work in progress. I will never grow up.

Make sense?

[defe07]

I think Trump can get the Reagan Democrat vote, like it or not.

[DrScholl]

Clinton would get at least 54% of the popular vote and carry all the states Obama did in 2012, plus North Carolina.

[RI]

I think this is Trump's realistic ceiling.

Oh come on --- I'm not saying he's going to win it, but if you are calling it a ceiling, and a poll by PPP has Trump in the lead in Pennsylvania, how is that not in the ceiling? That's as of two months ago. Trump also should have an exceptionally high ceiling if you consider the desire for a security candidate from non-traditional sources based on future events (at home or abroad) that could stir up emotions.

I tried to be fairly conservative in how much swing I allowed in either direction. I think the country's too polarized for a massive landslide either way. It is possible you are correct.

[pbrower2a]

Clinton wins by a margin between 1988 and 2008.

Paradoxically, the elder Bush got little more of the popular vote in 1988 than Obama got in 2008.

Bush 53.37 -- Dukakis 45.65
Obama 52.86 -- McCain 45.60

But the elder Bush won 426 electoral votes, and Obama won 365.

To get 426 or more votes by adding to the Obama 2008 win, Hillary Clinton would need  to also win

MO    375
MT     378
GA     393
SD     396
AZ     406
ND     409
SC     417
TX     445

...which isn't going to happen.

Let's try adding states to 2012.

She would have to win North Carolina (347), NE-02 (348), Georgia (364), Arizona (376), Missouri (386), and the inner arc (Louisiana to West Virginia, states that Bill Clinton won twice but Obama lost by huge margins twice -- 424). If Hillary misses on one of the states of the inner arc (AR, KY, LA, TN, WV) she would have to pick up Indiana or South Carolina to get into the area of 420 electoral votes.

The American electorate is extremely polarized. Democrats are going to find poaching recent Republican voters difficult -- and Republicans are going to find poaching away recent Democratic voters difficult, except perhaps on local issues within states. Even corruption and gross incompetence seem to matter little. Demographic change and migration may matter more.