If Trump is the nominee, will the establishment run third party?

[NeverAgain]

I say #2, as they would certainly rather have tax loopholes over saving Social Security.

[Mr. Morden]

"The establishment" isn't a single entity.  But sure, there's a good chance that someone "establishment-friendly" would make a run.  It only takes one person for this to happen.  They might not be able to get on that many state ballots, but it would be a symbolic candidacy anyway.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kasich should run 3rd party only in Ohio and try to throw the election to the house.

[Broken System]

"The establishment" isn't a single entity.  But sure, there's a good chance that someone "establishment-friendly" would make a run.  It only takes one person for this to happen.  They might not be able to get on that many state ballots, but it would be a symbolic candidacy anyway.

Let's be honest here. Those guys are as much of a hive mind as you can get in GOP politics. They always bandwagon on a choice candidate without giving it a second thought. Their goal is to handpick their own candidate without ever giving the voters themselves a chance to establish opinions of their own. They don't trust the opinions of the voters. This in itself has become a self-fulfilling prophesy. GOP voters are tired of being told what to do, so they have backed the ultimate anti-politician candidate. Their final straw was choosing to bandwagon on Jeb Bush, a candidate who fails to understand the lives and opinions of the average American more than any other. These "nobles" are losing control of their own party. If an establishment candidate runs third-party, it will have been planned by the entire group. It won't even be to win, but instead, to torpedo the monster of a party (from their perspective) that they created out of existence.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Very Doubtful.  Some will vote Libertarian, some will skip the top of the ballot, a few will support Hillary publicly, some will vote for Hillary privately, and the rest will vote for Trump while hoping he doesn't actually win.

[Illiniwek]

I don't think they will support him but they will not put out their own candidate. I just cannot envision a substantial third party run, especially one promoted by the establishment, happening anytime soon in America. If they did that this election I would eat my hat. I think they would just sit 2016 out and hope they can pick up the pieces afterward.

Before yesterday I was really starting to believe that once the primary was over Trump would take a sharp turn toward the center and would be very good at deflecting Democratic attacks about his primary-positions, and he would have a scary good chance at winning with establishment support. But I don't see how he can recover from this. If every Republican including the Speaker of the House and former vice president are calling you out as un-American, there is no way you can overlook these extreme positions.

[tmthforu94]

I could see a person like Jon Huntsman giving it a go. There will be a sizable chunk that vote for Trump, some who vote for Hillary strategically, and the rest go with Huntsman-type candidate. They could get somewhere around 10%, I'd imagine, but I don't see them being a viable threat.

[Mr. Morden]

"The establishment" isn't a single entity.  But sure, there's a good chance that someone "establishment-friendly" would make a run.  It only takes one person for this to happen.  They might not be able to get on that many state ballots, but it would be a symbolic candidacy anyway.

Let's be honest here. Those guys are as much of a hive mind as you can get in GOP politics. They always bandwagon on a choice candidate without giving it a second thought. Their goal is to handpick their own candidate without ever giving the voters themselves a chance to establish opinions of their own. They don't trust the opinions of the voters. This in itself has become a self-fulfilling prophesy. GOP voters are tired of being told what to do, so they have backed the ultimate anti-politician candidate. Their final straw was choosing to bandwagon on Jeb Bush, a candidate who fails to understand the lives and opinions of the average American more than any other. These "nobles" are losing control of their own party. If an establishment candidate runs third-party, it will have been planned by the entire group. It won't even be to win, but instead, to torpedo the monster of a party (from their perspective) that they created out of existence.

Who are you counting as "the establishment" though?  I'm not saying that the big $ donors would go all in on a no-hope third party candidate, but could I see, say, a Lindsey Graham or someone like that launch a bid without any big $ backing?  Sure.  There are enough politicians within the party who hate Trump that I can absolutely see one of them go for it.  Does that count as "the establishment run third party" for the purposes of this poll, or not?

[C r a b c a k e]

Kasich should run 3rd party only in Ohio and try to throw the election to the house.

Kasich winning the presidency by only winning one state and, like, 2% of the national vote, would be a move in outright contempt of democracy in general, so it probably would be an ideal plan for the GOP elite. It certainly would make a mockery of America preaching democracy around the world, which would be an even funnier consequence.

[Liberalrocks]

I would say no at this point, despite the very valid GOP fear and they should be afraid. I think Mr Trump will only rise in the polls not fall after Muslim gate.

What I do see is history repeating itself in such a scenario similiar to 1964. Now with respect to Barry Goldwater who was a good principled man, Trump is not. I do see the electorate seeing Trump as they perceived Goldwater in 1964. Too extreme and not mentally well balanced. I also see a defection/refusal of endorsement in such scenario by establishment-moderate GOP but I dont see a full third party establishment endorsed candidate making their way to the debate stage. I think people will clearly be questioning Mr Trumps sanity as they did Mr Goldwater's in 1964 while Mrs Clinton wont need to run another 'Daisy' ad Trump is already doing it for her.

As for a landslide the warning signs are there, two polls out of Utah of all places had Mr Trump leading Mrs Clinton by only single digits and this is before we would know if the Mormon leaders decide to endorse.

The only way we see a third party is in the event Trump loses the nomination and runs anyway and that I feel is also very real possibility particularly if he feels cheated or insulted.

[RI]

Kasich should run 3rd party only in Ohio and try to throw the election to the house.

The only way such a strategy could benefit the Republicans is if a third party GOPer could pick off an otherwise Dem state in a close election. Kasich winning Ohio doesn't do the Republicans much good, but a third party candidate picking off Wisconsin or Maine or something like that would.

[Broken System]

"The establishment" isn't a single entity.  But sure, there's a good chance that someone "establishment-friendly" would make a run.  It only takes one person for this to happen.  They might not be able to get on that many state ballots, but it would be a symbolic candidacy anyway.

Let's be honest here. Those guys are as much of a hive mind as you can get in GOP politics. They always bandwagon on a choice candidate without giving it a second thought. Their goal is to handpick their own candidate without ever giving the voters themselves a chance to establish opinions of their own. They don't trust the opinions of the voters. This in itself has become a self-fulfilling prophesy. GOP voters are tired of being told what to do, so they have backed the ultimate anti-politician candidate. Their final straw was choosing to bandwagon on Jeb Bush, a candidate who fails to understand the lives and opinions of the average American more than any other. These "nobles" are losing control of their own party. If an establishment candidate runs third-party, it will have been planned by the entire group. It won't even be to win, but instead, to torpedo the monster of a party (from their perspective) that they created out of existence.

Who are you counting as "the establishment" though?  I'm not saying that the big $ donors would go all in on a no-hope third party candidate, but could I see, say, a Lindsey Graham or someone like that launch a bid without any big $ backing?  Sure.  There are enough politicians within the party who hate Trump that I can absolutely see one of them go for it.  Does that count as "the establishment run third party" for the purposes of this poll, or not?

I count the GOP establishment as the GOP politicians who are always agreeing with each other. The same bozos who were pretty much crying when Kevin McCarthy announced that he didn't want to become Speaker. For the purposes of this poll, an establishment third party candidate will need to be one the establishment handpicks, like Bush or Romney perhaps. If someone like Graham went off on their own and decided to run, I probably wouldn't consider it an establishment run. If I notice that a majority of GOP Congressmen are endorsing someone like Graham instead of the GOP nominee, then I would probably consider it an establishment third party bid. It all comes down to those Congressional endorsements.

[Mr. Morden]

Another thing that I think will get a lot more attention if Trump wins the nomination is the selection of electors.  It's normally not something people give any thought to, but if you were to actually have a situation in which the party elite was at war with the party's presidential nominee, then you'd start having all kinds of speculation about faithless electors throwing the race to the House, should Trump win the general election.

[Sir Mohamed]

No, because they can't win. They either want Hillary to win and hope, that the GOP becomes normal again after Trump is heavily defeated.

[Beezer]

I think the GOP elite will be perfectly content with running things from the House/Senate. The presidency would be a nice prize for them but it's not a necessity. So no need for a third candidate who doesn't stand a chance anyway.

[Mr. Morden]

I think the GOP elite will be perfectly content with running things from the House/Senate. The presidency would be a nice prize for them but it's not a necessity. So no need for a third candidate who doesn't stand a chance anyway.

The goal of such a 3rd party campaign wouldn't be to win the election.  That would obviously be impossible.  The goal would be to give the party elite a vehicle through which to dissociate themselves from Trump without explicitly supporting Clinton.  The idea is that, once Clinton is elected and Trump loses, the party elite can say "OK, now that Trump is no longer the Republican presidential nominee and thus de facto leader of the party, we can go back to business as usual."

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Such a move would represent a surrender to the populist wing of the party. The establishment will swallow the bitter pill and support Trump while hoping that he loses so that they can reassert control in the aftermath.

It's worth noting that Mr. Moderate Republican himself, Ike Eisenhower, endorsed Barry Goldwater once it was clear that he would be the party's nominee.

[The Mikado]

No.

That said, in a Clinton vs Trump race, Jim Webb might end up getting a fair amount of GOP moderate support in addition to a few conservative Democrats. I think Clinton/Trump/Webb might see Webb hit ~3%...nothing that could win an election, but respectable for a third party run.

[Asian Nazi]

I disagree with both of the poll options.  The establishment won't run "third party" (because that'd be dumb) though I wouldn't be surprised if some moderate hero tried launching a bid that ultimately flamed out and got like less than 2%.  At the same time, I think it's been established that large portions of the establishment actively prefer Clinton over Trump.