How can Bernie beat Hillary?

[Cruzcrew]

I'm curious of if Bernie fans still believe Bernie will win the democrat nomination and how would he do it? He's down by 30 to Hillary nationwide and may not even be leading Iowa or New Hampshire right now.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The hope is that he manages to win NH. But, that was a bit of a stretch due to the fact the delegation is all females.

[Bull Moose Base]

As the Trump skeptics correctly point out, national polling is overrated in importance. Sanders is  more competitive in Iowa and NH than Rubio now is.

It'd be straightforward: Win Iowa (last 2 polls have him within 10), win NH (very plausible), national polling would close quickly. Make inroads with black and Latino voters (who currently don't seem all that familiar with Sanders but are likely to be receptive to his message).

I'd wild guess his chances of pulling it off are close to 10%?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The gun issue has hurt Sanders with women voters, due to sympathy of females losing sons over drug & gang violence.

So, I think Clinton will win

[Clark Kent]

He can't.

[Crumpets]

Pander to whites to win Iowa and New Hampshire, then claim that "the people have made their choice clear" going into Nevada and South Carolina.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Not saying that it's probable (or even possible), but he needs to win Iowa in addition to NH. Nevada may also be necessary. If he can win 3 of the first 4, he would be in decent shape going into Super Tuesday. He would then need to win VT, MA, MN, CO as a minimum. Super Tuesday is not going to be that great for Bernie. Out of Louisiana, Nebraska, and Kansas, winning two would be good (the last two are probably the most likely). The Maine caucus is a must win (and could be a good showing). Not sure if he could get Michigan (Mississippi is probably not a good state for him).

March 15th brings Illinois, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida. Those really aren't that great of states for Sanders, I don't think. Even if Sanders does well enough in Super Tuesday, losing all 5 of these states would kill his campaign. A week later could be better for Bernie: Utah, Idaho, and Arizona. He could probably get 2/3 if he was still in. The 22nd is also probably a good day for Sanders: Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington. Washington and Alaska could be strong Bernie states (doubtful about Hawaii).

April 5th brings Wisconsin, which is a must win as well. Wyoming is on the 9th and would be a nice bonus for Bernie. Ten days later is New York, which is probably solid Clinton country. The five northeastern states on the 26th are could be tricky, but maybe not as much as one might think. If he's made it to April 26th, he has probably expanded his coalition.

Indiana is on May 3rd. Again, who knows, but I would say that Clinton would do better here. Then comes Guam. No idea about any of the territories, really, but they tend to go for the establishment candidates. West Virginia is on the 10th and I think that Bernie could do well here as well as in Oregon the following week. Not sure about Kentucky (same day as Oregon), but I think that it would go to Clinton overall (Sanders may be able to get support in the eastern part).

Puerto Rico is on Cinco de Mayo. Doubtful that Bernie could win here.

California, Montana, South Dakota, New Jersey, and New Mexico are on June 7th, much to my chagrin. Sanders could probably pick up some parts of CA, but I'm not sure if he could win. Then again, just reaching CA would be yooj for the Sanders Campaign. Montana and South Dakota seem like decent fits for Bernie, especially Montana. I don't think that New Mexico or New Jersey would be that great for Sanders. DC comes last. Dean won here in 2004 when DC went first. I don't really have an idea here.

Finally, there's North Dakota. It doesn't seem like they really have their act together, but I think it could be a good state for Bernie.


Final Verdict: Bernie would have to get very, very, very lucky to get the nomination. This also assumes that O'Malley drops out relatively quickly. I haven't done any math for that giant wall of text, but I'm not sure if that would be enough delegates for Sanders.

[Broken System]

Bernie's only chance to stay relevant is to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. Just New Hampshire will not be enough. If he wins both, his numbers will start rising elsewhere.

[Migrant Crime]

Only by running as Trumps VP

[Dwarven Dragon]

Not saying that it's probable (or even possible), but he needs to win Iowa in addition to NH. Nevada may also be necessary. If he can win 3 of the first 4, he would be in decent shape going into Super Tuesday. He would then need to win VT, MA, MN, CO as a minimum. Super Tuesday is not going to be that great for Bernie. Out of Louisiana, Nebraska, and Kansas, winning two would be good (the last two are probably the most likely). The Maine caucus is a must win (and could be a good showing). Not sure if he could get Michigan (Mississippi is probably not a good state for him).

March 15th brings Illinois, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida. Those really aren't that great of states for Sanders, I don't think. Even if Sanders does well enough in Super Tuesday, losing all 5 of these states would kill his campaign. A week later could be better for Bernie: Utah, Idaho, and Arizona. He could probably get 2/3 if he was still in. The 22nd is also probably a good day for Sanders: Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington. Washington and Alaska could be strong Bernie states (doubtful about Hawaii).

April 5th brings Wisconsin, which is a must win as well. Wyoming is on the 9th and would be a nice bonus for Bernie. Ten days later is New York, which is probably solid Clinton country. The five northeastern states on the 26th are could be tricky, but maybe not as much as one might think. If he's made it to April 26th, he has probably expanded his coalition.

Indiana is on May 3rd. Again, who knows, but I would say that Clinton would do better here. Then comes Guam. No idea about any of the territories, really, but they tend to go for the establishment candidates. West Virginia is on the 10th and I think that Bernie could do well here as well as in Oregon the following week. Not sure about Kentucky (same day as Oregon), but I think that it would go to Clinton overall (Sanders may be able to get support in the eastern part).

Puerto Rico is on Cinco de Mayo. Doubtful that Bernie could win here.

California, Montana, South Dakota, New Jersey, and New Mexico are on June 7th, much to my chagrin. Sanders could probably pick up some parts of CA, but I'm not sure if he could win. Then again, just reaching CA would be yooj for the Sanders Campaign. Montana and South Dakota seem like decent fits for Bernie, especially Montana. I don't think that New Mexico or New Jersey would be that great for Sanders. DC comes last. Dean won here in 2004 when DC went first. I don't really have an idea here.

Finally, there's North Dakota. It doesn't seem like they really have their act together, but I think it could be a good state for Bernie.


Final Verdict: Bernie would have to get very, very, very lucky to get the nomination. This also assumes that O'Malley drops out relatively quickly. I haven't done any math for that giant wall of text, but I'm not sure if that would be enough delegates for Sanders.

With the five states on March 15, I think Bernie has a shot at Missouri, as it's >80% white. It's probably a must-win for him.

[ConservativeVoter16]

Bernie Sanders has to convince progressive voters he can defeat the Republican nominee. I think his best bet is to try and compare himself to President Obama and try and tell people "no more Clintons, no more Bushs."

[ProgressiveCanadian]

He needs to go on the offensive more often against Clinton during the debates plain and simple and needs to lower her favroability with the democrats to have a shot.

[NeverAgain]

He needs to go on the offensive more often against Clinton during the debates plain and simple and needs to lower her favroability with the democrats to have a shot.

His supporters like him because of his policies and his integrity, doing this may bring 1 or 2 % away from Clinton, but could ruin his chances and/or Clinton's chances in the GE...

[Dwarven Dragon]

He needs to go on the offensive more often against Clinton during the debates plain and simple and needs to lower her favroability with the democrats to have a shot.

His supporters like him because of his policies and his integrity, doing this may bring 1 or 2 % away from Clinton, but could ruin his chances and/or Clinton's chances in the GE...

This assumes that Bernie cares about her chances. Even though Bernie's running as a Democrat, he remains clear in that he will continue being an independent senator after he loses. It's possible that should Hillary win the nomination, Bernie will (secretly) want the GOP to win the election to "stick it to wall street dems".

[C r a b c a k e]

He needs to go on the offensive more often against Clinton during the debates plain and simple and needs to lower her favroability with the democrats to have a shot.

His supporters like him because of his policies and his integrity, doing this may bring 1 or 2 % away from Clinton, but could ruin his chances and/or Clinton's chances in the GE...

This assumes that Bernie cares about her chances. Even though Bernie's running as a Democrat, he remains clear in that he will continue being an independent senator after he loses. It's possible that should Hillary win the nomination, Bernie will (secretly) want the GOP to win the election to "stick it to wall street dems".

Wtf the guy isn't some mad trot

[IceSpear]

He can't. But he can win if Hillary dies or is indicted.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

He is leading in New Hampshire.

[°Leprechaun's Rainbow]

If moderate Republicans who don't like Trump, Carson or Cruz and want to stop Clinton, and for whatever reason like him more than Clinton, decide to change their registration, they could vote for Sanders in the primary. Right now, it looks like it could be one of those three, so maybe this is something they could consider, although I know it sounds pretty crazy.

[Torie]

Hillary's indictment.

[TarHeelDem]

He can't.

This. Even if Hillary was indicted. The party won't let it happen. They want to win the general.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

His only chance is a late momentum shift, meaning that he wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, while overperforming expectations in South Carolina. It's not likely, but it's conceivable.

[Bull Moose Base]

He can't.

This. Even if Hillary was indicted. The party won't let it happen. They want to win the general.

This is the election year of assumptions being wrong: we don't know that parties can let or not let anything happen. Also, polls continue to show Sanders as strong and in many cases stronger than Hillary in the general. As I've said all along, the hard part for Sanders isn't the general, it's the primary.

[VPH]

I think the window has become smaller but there still is some hope.

1. Bernie must win Iowa Likelihood: Moderate
2. Bernie must win New Hampshire Likelihood: Moderate
3. Bernie must perform okay in Nevada (>35%) and South Carolina (>30%) Likelihood: Low
4. He must do very well after that and win in places like Kansas and Nebraska

[Ljube]

Hillary's indictment.

Or serious illness.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think the window has become smaller but there still is some hope.

1. Bernie must win Iowa Likelihood: Moderate
2. Bernie must win New Hampshire Likelihood: Moderate
3. Bernie must perform okay in Nevada (>35%) and South Carolina (>30%) Likelihood: Low
4. He must do very well after that and win in places like Kansas and Nebraska

He's got a decent chance at breaking 35% in Nevada. But breaking 30% in SC could be tough.