Predict the 2016 Election Using 538's Awesome Tool

[Young Conservative]

Use this to predict the election among various demographics. It'll show you how it affects the states. Post your results here!!!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

[Ljube]

Finally a good tool. Still difficult to make Iowa to switch, though.

[Maxwell]

Here's something I plugged in for a potential TRUMP scenario:

College Educated Whites - 52% R, 68% Turnout
Non College Educated Whites - 67% R, 65% Turnout
Blacks - 86% D, 60% Turnout
Hispanic - 79% D, 57% Turnout
Asians - 75% D, 42% Tunrout

Democrats win 51%-48%, with 314 EV's and winning Florida and losing Ohio

[Lief 🗽]

Here's something I plugged in for a potential TRUMP scenario:

College Educated Whites - 52% R, 68% Turnout
Non College Educated Whites - 67% R, 65% Turnout
Blacks - 86% D, 60% Turnout
Hispanic - 79% D, 57% Turnout
Asians - 75% D, 42% Tunrout

Democrats win 51%-48%, with 314 EV's and winning Florida and losing Ohio

Sounds about right.

[Dwarven Dragon]

Here's something I plugged in for a potential TRUMP scenario:

College Educated Whites - 52% R, 68% Turnout
Non College Educated Whites - 67% R, 65% Turnout
Blacks - 86% D, 60% Turnout
Hispanic - 79% D, 57% Turnout
Asians - 75% D, 42% Tunrout

Democrats win 51%-48%, with 314 EV's and winning Florida and losing Ohio

Sounds about right.

Wait, Lief agrees that Trump is going to lose the general?!?

[Torie]

Here's something I plugged in for a potential TRUMP scenario:

College Educated Whites - 52% R, 68% Turnout
Non College Educated Whites - 67% R, 65% Turnout
Blacks - 86% D, 60% Turnout
Hispanic - 79% D, 57% Turnout
Asians - 75% D, 42% Tunrout

Democrats win 51%-48%, with 314 EV's and winning Florida and losing Ohio

The Hispanic turnout seems too high. What is the denominator of the turnout percentages? And why the higher turnout for Hispanics than Asians?

[Maxwell]

Here's something I plugged in for a potential TRUMP scenario:

College Educated Whites - 52% R, 68% Turnout
Non College Educated Whites - 67% R, 65% Turnout
Blacks - 86% D, 60% Turnout
Hispanic - 79% D, 57% Turnout
Asians - 75% D, 42% Tunrout

Democrats win 51%-48%, with 314 EV's and winning Florida and losing Ohio

The Hispanic turnout seems too high. What is the denominator of the turnout percentages? And why the higher turnout for Hispanics than Asians?

Trump will probably inspire Hispanics to turn out in record numbers to oppose him. You might be right that its too high, in which case Trump is probably closer to winning.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Asians know they aren't actually anchor babies, Torie. Bush is an idiot, and they acknowledge that, thus will not be motivated to vote like the Hispanics who Trump offended.

Looks OK, except Trump not doing well enough with the blacks. Expect 51% there. Hispanics will be 97% D, causing loss in TX, FL, but uneducated white at 78% TRUMP will help to carry DE, ME, WI, MN, MI with high turnout. 279-259 Trump.

[Torie]

Asians know they aren't actually anchor babies, Torie. Bush is an idiot, and they will not be motivated to vote like the Hispanics.

Looks OK, except Trump not doing well enough with the blacks. Expect 51% there. Hispanics will be 97% D, causing loss in TX, FL, but uneducated white at 78% TRUMP will help to carry DE, ME, WI, MN, MI with high turnout. 279-259 Trump.

And there you have it!

[Young Conservative]

Here's something I plugged in for a potential TRUMP scenario:

College Educated Whites - 52% R, 68% Turnout
Non College Educated Whites - 67% R, 65% Turnout
Blacks - 86% D, 60% Turnout
Hispanic - 79% D, 57% Turnout
Asians - 75% D, 42% Tunrout

Democrats win 51%-48%, with 314 EV's and winning Florida and losing Ohio

2008 and 2012 were rare; black turnout rarely exceeds 60 or gets close. Asians are usually pretty even and were in the 2014 midterms. college educated whites are unlikely to vote democrat and whites will experience higher turnout than in 2012, which was exceptional

[Young Conservative]

I played around with this tool, and right now, my best guess is:

1. Florida is slightly leaning Republican.
2. Ohio is a tie/tossup.
3. Pennsylvania/New Hampshire are all going Democratic barring some huge disaster.
4. Colorado and Virginia could plausibly go Republican, but they'll probably be going Democratic.
5. The Democrats have an advantage, but if turnout stalls or Clinton has some scandals, this could be a good Republican year.

I know, so brave.

I agree with you on florida and ohio, but with declined black turnout, Virginia becomes competitive in a national election. Colorado is in play since its more libertarian and their social issues are basically taken care of. New Hampshire is dependent on the type of nominee.

[Angel of Death]

So the Atlas suspends its collective Nate Silver Derangement Syndrome on account of a new shiny toy.

[Panhandle Progressive]

I played around with this tool, and right now, my best guess is:

1. Florida is slightly leaning Republican.
2. Ohio is a tie/tossup.
3. Pennsylvania/New Hampshire are all going Democratic barring some huge disaster.
4. Colorado and Virginia could plausibly go Republican, but they'll probably be going Democratic.
5. The Democrats have an advantage, but if turnout stalls or Clinton has some scandals, this could be a good Republican year.

I know, so brave.

but with declined black turnout, Virginia becomes competitive in a national election.

Do you even know what you are talking about? Our current Governor (Terry McAuliffe) won black voters two years ago by a 90-8 percent margin, a similar spread to the 93-6 percent President Barack Obama ran up in the 2012 presidential election in the Old Dominion. If you think they would be this enthused about Terry but not Hillary you'd better re-evaluate.

Source:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/11/06/how-high-african-american-turnout-gave-terry-mcauliffe-his-win-in-virginia.html

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Hillary: 332 EVs, 52.0% vs. Trump's 46.1%, 206 EVs

College-educated Whites:
52% R, 79% turnout ( -4, +2 respectively)

Non-college Whites:
66% R, 61% turnout (+4, +4)

Blacks:
90% D, 61% turnout (-3, -5)

Hispanics:
77% D, 51% turnout (+6, +3)

Asians & Others:
79% D, 54% turnout (+12, +5)

[Ljube]

Here's something I plugged in for a potential TRUMP scenario:

College Educated Whites - 52% R, 68% Turnout
Non College Educated Whites - 67% R, 65% Turnout
Blacks - 86% D, 60% Turnout
Hispanic - 79% D, 57% Turnout
Asians - 75% D, 42% Tunrout

Democrats win 51%-48%, with 314 EV's and winning Florida and losing Ohio

The Hispanic turnout seems too high. What is the denominator of the turnout percentages? And why the higher turnout for Hispanics than Asians?

Trump will probably inspire Hispanics to turn out in record numbers to oppose him. You might be right that its too high, in which case Trump is probably closer to winning.

I think the idea that Trump would inspire negative feelings/turnout is wishful thinking, like all similar notions before. Trump inspires his supporters to turn out in record numbers. His supporters are low probability voters, even Democratic voters (blue collar whites). Expect this percentage to be significantly higher. We'll have to wait for some GE polling, of course, but then, in the crosstabs, look for his percent of non-educated whites.

Without Obama, it should be expected to see the black turnout drop and also the Hispanic turnout.

Asians are business/economy centered voters, so a bump for Trump should be expected.

[Ljube]

Here are my numbers:

1) White elite: 53% R, 73%
2) White people: 66% R, 63%
3) Blacks: 86% D, 53%
4) Hispanic: 65% D, 42%
5) Asian/Other: 55% D, 52%

Trump wins 301 EV. He wins VA, OH, PA, FL, NV and CO, but fails to win IA. I can't get him to win Iowa.

How stupid are the people of Iowa?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

If you look at Clinton travels, she campaigns in NV, Ca & CO. CO for planned parenthood and Vegas & Ca for fundraising. Convention is in Pa.  Those are clearly the states she needs, as well as Iowa to clinch presidency.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Here's something I plugged in for a potential TRUMP scenario:

College Educated Whites - 52% R, 68% Turnout
Non College Educated Whites - 67% R, 65% Turnout
Blacks - 86% D, 60% Turnout
Hispanic - 79% D, 57% Turnout
Asians - 75% D, 42% Tunrout

Democrats win 51%-48%, with 314 EV's and winning Florida and losing Ohio

The Hispanic turnout seems too high. What is the denominator of the turnout percentages? And why the higher turnout for Hispanics than Asians?

Trump will probably inspire Hispanics to turn out in record numbers to oppose him. You might be right that its too high, in which case Trump is probably closer to winning.

I think the idea that Trump would inspire negative feelings/turnout is wishful thinking, like all similar notions before. Trump inspires his supporters to turn out in record numbers. His supporters are low probability voters, even Democratic voters (blue collar whites). Expect this percentage to be significantly higher. We'll have to wait for some GE polling, of course, but then, in the crosstabs, look for his percent of non-educated whites.

Did you even understand what he said?
Is it even debatable that a TRUMP nomination will cause a spike in Hispanic turnout after all the bile he spews against them for months now?

[Ljube]

Here's something I plugged in for a potential TRUMP scenario:

College Educated Whites - 52% R, 68% Turnout
Non College Educated Whites - 67% R, 65% Turnout
Blacks - 86% D, 60% Turnout
Hispanic - 79% D, 57% Turnout
Asians - 75% D, 42% Tunrout

Democrats win 51%-48%, with 314 EV's and winning Florida and losing Ohio

The Hispanic turnout seems too high. What is the denominator of the turnout percentages? And why the higher turnout for Hispanics than Asians?

Trump will probably inspire Hispanics to turn out in record numbers to oppose him. You might be right that its too high, in which case Trump is probably closer to winning.

I think the idea that Trump would inspire negative feelings/turnout is wishful thinking, like all similar notions before. Trump inspires his supporters to turn out in record numbers. His supporters are low probability voters, even Democratic voters (blue collar whites). Expect this percentage to be significantly higher. We'll have to wait for some GE polling, of course, but then, in the crosstabs, look for his percent of non-educated whites.

Did you even understand what he said?
Is it even debatable that a TRUMP nomination will cause a spike in Hispanic turnout after all the bile he spews against them for months now?

Yes, it is. Your problem is that you think Hispanics vote by racial ID. In fact, they are mostly economic message driven voters. Trump will dominate the economy discourse and the Hispanics will not find him threatening.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Here's something I plugged in for a potential TRUMP scenario:

College Educated Whites - 52% R, 68% Turnout
Non College Educated Whites - 67% R, 65% Turnout
Blacks - 86% D, 60% Turnout
Hispanic - 79% D, 57% Turnout
Asians - 75% D, 42% Tunrout

Democrats win 51%-48%, with 314 EV's and winning Florida and losing Ohio

The Hispanic turnout seems too high. What is the denominator of the turnout percentages? And why the higher turnout for Hispanics than Asians?

Trump will probably inspire Hispanics to turn out in record numbers to oppose him. You might be right that its too high, in which case Trump is probably closer to winning.

I think the idea that Trump would inspire negative feelings/turnout is wishful thinking, like all similar notions before. Trump inspires his supporters to turn out in record numbers. His supporters are low probability voters, even Democratic voters (blue collar whites). Expect this percentage to be significantly higher. We'll have to wait for some GE polling, of course, but then, in the crosstabs, look for his percent of non-educated whites.

Did you even understand what he said?
Is it even debatable that a TRUMP nomination will cause a spike in Hispanic turnout after all the bile he spews against them for months now?

Yes, it is. Your problem is that you think Hispanics vote by racial ID. In fact, they are mostly economic message driven voters. Trump will dominate the economy discourse and the Hispanics will not find him threatening.

k

[Senator Cris]

Here's something I plugged in for a potential TRUMP scenario:

College Educated Whites - 52% R, 68% Turnout
Non College Educated Whites - 67% R, 65% Turnout
Blacks - 86% D, 60% Turnout
Hispanic - 79% D, 57% Turnout
Asians - 75% D, 42% Tunrout

Democrats win 51%-48%, with 314 EV's and winning Florida and losing Ohio

Sounds about right.

Wait, Lief agrees that Trump is going to lose the general?!?

Interesting question.
I also asked him if he's going to support Trump in the general election. He never answered the question.

[pbrower2a]

Asians know they aren't actually anchor babies, Torie. Bush is an idiot, and they acknowledge that, thus will not be motivated to vote like the Hispanics who Trump offended.

Looks OK, except Trump not doing well enough with the blacks. Expect 51% there. Hispanics will be 97% D, causing loss in TX, FL, but uneducated white at 78% TRUMP will help to carry DE, ME, WI, MN, MI with high turnout. 279-259 Trump.

Even if blacks vote a little more R and vote less (only 47% of eligible blacks voting), Hillary Clinton still wins by winning Colorado. Florida, Ohio, and Virginia still flip R in a nail-biter of an election. Democrats probably do not regain the Senate, though.

Barack Obama may have changed the voting habits for blacks.

Asians don't matter so much. Raise their percentage of participation to the same level as well-educated white people, from 50% to 77%, and no state flips. Asians are of course heavily concentrated in states mostly on the West Coast and Northeast that are extremely inelastic in their voting. Not until one moves them to 67% R (where they were in the Reagan elections) do they flip any state -- in that case, Florida.

One must raise the rate of Hispanic participation to a ridiculous 82% to flip Arizona. That is a higher rate of participation than "college educated whites". North Carolina flips D before Arizona does with a higher rate of Hispanic participation in the voting.  

Should Republicans get 65% of the college-educated white cote, then they win big. by flipping Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire -- and 325 electoral votes. Such is well precedented when Eisenhower win the educated, secular white voters heavily by not offending their sensibilities and the Southern Strategy had yet to hurt Republicans among such voters (Reagan landslides), but now unlikely because the anti-intellectualism that the GOP has used to reach the under-educated white vote turns many such voters cold to the GOP.

A scenario in which  results in a flip of percentages for non-college whites and educated whites practically replicates the 2012 map. Trading one group for the other is a losing proposition for Republicans.

A nightmare scenario for Republicans would be for non-college whites to vote about evenly D-R, as they probably did in the Carter victory. At even a 53-47 split of such voters between R and D, Democrats pick up North Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and Arizona. Such would come with a drop-off if votes. Such voters have good cause for disillusionment, and should the Republicans lose enough of such voters they lose Montana, Louisiana, and South Carolin as well in a 426-114 rout in the Electoral College.

Republicans get 388 electoral votes if they can get 75% of the college-educated white vote, which they probably did when Eisenhower was winning big. What allowed such to happen was that the black vote was slight (15%?) and not so firmly D (65%) . There were far fewer Hispanic voters (which I show with about 15% of the population voting to adjust for numbers). Because most are Mexican-American voters in the Southwest, they still vote as heavily Democratic as they now do. At that point, Democrats lose California.   Such leaves Democrats with Vermont, Rhode Island, and the District of Columbia.  

Of course we do not have an Eisenhower electorate. Ike did not do so well among undereducated white voters, the mass vote of the South.  

[RR1997]

Here's something I plugged in for a potential TRUMP scenario:

College Educated Whites - 52% R, 68% Turnout
Non College Educated Whites - 67% R, 65% Turnout
Blacks - 86% D, 60% Turnout
Hispanic - 79% D, 57% Turnout
Asians - 75% D, 42% Tunrout

Democrats win 51%-48%, with 314 EV's and winning Florida and losing Ohio

I really hope that your black vote prediction is supposed to be a joke.

Why would Trump do so well with black voters? Romney got like 6% in 2012 IIRC (compared to Obama's 93%). Trump will get around 8% of black voters AT BEST. I do agree that Trump will do slightly better with black voters compared to Romney (Trump is arguably a better fit for black voters than Romney was), but he will only improve by two percentage points at best.

Also, why would the Asian turnout drop that significantly? Asians were offended by Trump's immigration comments too. The Asian turnout was almost 50% in 2012. Don't get me wrong, the percentage looks about right, but the turnout rate is too low IMO. Not to mention that Asian voters love Hillary.

You're spot on with the Hispanic turnout. I also predict that Hispanic turnout will be in the mid to high 50's (possibly low 60's at worst)

I also think that you're overestimating Trump with Hispanics

I know that this anecdotal, but all the Hispanics I know (mostly acquaintances) hate Trump. I see a lot of Hispanics on Facebook constantly posting anti-Trump stuff. These are people that didn't even care about politics back in 2012.

I predict that Hillary would get around 80-86% of the Hispanic vote.

All the other things are spot on Maxwell. I just wanted to point out the flaws in your prediction.

[Zache]

Here are my numbers:

1) White elite: 53% R, 73%
2) White people: 66% R, 63%
3) Blacks: 86% D, 53%
4) Hispanic: 65% D, 42%
5) Asian/Other: 55% D, 52%

Trump wins 301 EV. He wins VA, OH, PA, FL, NV and CO, but fails to win IA. I can't get him to win Iowa.

How stupid are the people of Iowa?

Why would black turnout be that low?

[RR1997]

Here are my numbers:

1) White elite: 53% R, 73%
2) White people: 66% R, 63%
3) Blacks: 86% D, 53%
4) Hispanic: 65% D, 42%
5) Asian/Other: 55% D, 52%

Trump wins 301 EV. He wins VA, OH, PA, FL, NV and CO, but fails to win IA. I can't get him to win Iowa.

How stupid are the people of Iowa?

Why would black turnout be that low?

IIRC, the black voter turnout was typically that low until Obama ran in 2008. The only reason that the black voter turnout was in the mid-60's in 2012 and 2008 was because of Obama. There is no doubt in my mind that the black voter turnout will drop somewhat signifanctly in 2016 compared to 2012. I predict that the black voter turnout will be in the mid to high-50's

EDIT: Never mind. I should've done my research before posting. The black voter turnout was 60% in 2004. Ljube's black voter turnout prediction is garbage. Black voter turnout will probably be around 60% (compared to 66% in 2012)