4 States, 4 Winners

[Broken System]

Iowa chooses the conservative doing strongest in the polls: Cruz

As we have seen, Trump has been constantly strong in New Hampshire. There are also hints that people are begrudgingly choosing him, as one recent poll showed that many voters would switch to Romney if he were to enter the race. There is one man whose ideas New Hampshire voters are warming up to: Christie

South Carolina is harder for me to explain. Historically, the winners don't follow a strong pattern, and the polling so far does not provide many hints regarding who might rise to the top. One man, in a nearby state, seems to poll slightly better there than other early states or the national average: Rubio

Nevada moderates rally around the man who polls very strongly here, and has stayed in headlines all election season long: Trump


Super Tuesday madness unfolds.

Is this plausible?

[Lord of the Dome]

I'd say if Trump doesn't carry any of the first three states, particularly New Hampshire, that could be enough for people to start getting off the bandwagon. I'm obviously not totally confident of this seeing as how I never anticipated he'd still be leading in December when he announced but I think losing all of those crucial first states would probably be enough to finally get his polling caught in the vicious downwards cycle so many people have been expecting for so long.

As for the others Cruz would be my solid bet for Iowa for all the reasons other people say the same but I still have a lot of doubts about this Christie recovery that people are suddenly starting to talk about. SC totally a tossup at this point but I'd honestly be surprised if it went to Rubio if he didn't have a really good showing in NH (which a Christie victory seems to preclude).