Can Marco Rubio Even Win a Primary?

[HillOfANight]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/12/04/can-marco-rubio-even-win-a-primary.html

Start with the first four big races—Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Rubio is behind in all of them. In three of them, seemingly, way behind.

In the modern primary era, which started in 1976, almost no one has won a major-party nomination without winning at least one early contest. The one partial exception here is Bill Clinton. But those were very specific circumstances.

[Sir Mohamed]

Maybe NV with its large latino population. Especially those, who regard Cruz as too conservative.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Maybe NV with its large latino population. Especially those, who regard Cruz as too conservative.

Not if TRUMP is still in the race. His # of employees outnumbers Hispanic Republicans (who he leads with anyway)

[Lief 🗽]

Maybe NV with its large latino mormon population. Especially those, who regard Cruz as too conservative.

Ftfy

As to the thread question, Rubio is increasingly looking like a Wes Clark or Rick Perry type of candidate: great on paper, underwhelming when it actually comes to campaigning.

[dudeabides]

Believe it or not, it is still early. At this point in 2011, Newt Gingrich was 15 points ahead of Mitt Romney nationally, he led in Iowa, and he was second in New Hampshire. Michele Bachmann was in the top five in Iowa. At this point in 2008, Rudy Giuliani led in Nevada, Mike Huckabee led in South Carolina with John McCain in 5th place, and Rudy Giuliani also led in Florida where McCain was in 5th place. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were tied in Iowa and Clinton led Obama decisively in South Carolina. 27 days before Iowa in 2004, John Kerry was at 4%. George W. Bush only led John McCain 49% - 42% days before South Carolina in 2000.

The point is, these polls don't mean much. Now, the Trump apologists will argue that the establishment has been saying he will start to go down in the polls but that hasn't happened. Rudy Giuliani dominated most polls throughout 2007, as did Hillary Clinton. Howard Dean came from nowhere to being the front-runner for the second half of 2003, the precieved establishment candidate, Dick Gephardt, lost ground and had to drop out after Iowa, and the nomination went to another establishment candidate.

There are about two months from today until Iowa. A lot can happen. In Iowa, we are already seeing movement. Trump is stagnant, Carson is down, Cruz is up. New Hampshire is probably where Trump will do well, the polls there seem to not change much though there have been surprises there as well. However, Rubio seems to be moving up there a bit. Also, if Bush, Kasich, and Christie drop out after New Hampshire, that is a huge boost to Rubio. But who knows, one of them could win; I doubt it because Bush is no longer a good retail politician, Kasich is running for Vice President, and Christie has too much baggage. But it's possible one of them can turn their campaigns around.

[Mehmentum]

One of Rubio's main problems is that he doesn't have a strength in any of the early states.  Its much better to be doing poorly in national polls but leading in an early state than the opposite, leading national polls but behind in all of the early states.

[Maxwell]

I'm still not especially sure he's eligible.

[MATTROSE94]

Rubio probably has a shot at winning Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Florida, Puerto Rico, Delaware, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine in the Republican primaries, but that is definately not enough to win the nomination.

[RI]

lol at Mormons voting en masse for an ex-Mormon. That's anathema.

To answer the question: Not before Super Tuesday, no.

[Broken System]

I still say to keep a close eye on South Carolina. Anything can happen there.

[Asian Nazi]

Maybe NV with its large latino population.

Lol I'm sure that all five who turn out for the GOP primary will vote for Rubio based on ethnic appeal.

Rubio's path the the nomination is to become the establishment candidate and win he Romney coalition.  Though judging by NH polls he's still perceived as too conservative by a large portion of establishment type voters for now.

[Lief 🗽]

lol at Mormons voting en masse for an ex-Mormon. That's anathema.

alleged ex-Mormon

[Fuzzy Bear]

He's not going to Mo Udall '76 it to the nomination. 

[VPH]

I think he'll win New Hampshire.

[Suburbia]

Yes. He will win Florida, Mass, NJ, etc. I see this nomination being between Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich and Christie.

[Mr. Morden]

Maybe NV with its large latino population.

Lol I'm sure that all five who turn out for the GOP primary will vote for Rubio based on ethnic appeal.

I know you're joking, but figured I'd mention that in the 2012 Nevada caucus entrance poll, 5% of GOP caucus-goers were Latino:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/nv/

Though no record of whether they identify as Latino in the same sense that Jeb Bush does.

[iuojg]

Yes. He will win Florida, Mass, NJ, etc. I see this nomination being between Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich and Christie.

Trump does best in the traditional Blue States (Except for california, which has a high hispanic population, though, technically, california was a western swing state until the hispanic pop. boom) and the southern red states. Trump's highest polling numbers are in MA where he's at 50%+.

If Rubio or the others gain any delegates it will be from the western and midwestern states where Trump is weakest. Trump dominates the eastern seaboard. The only remote competition he has there is in Florida, where he still does very well.

We could very well end up seeing Trump winning a plurality due to the eastern seaboard and southern states that love him, but not a majority due to california and iowa, etc.

[iuojg]

There's a huge cultural difference between the eastern part of the US and the West that could effect Trump. The East is much more brash and less PC. Even in NYC, Boston, etc. you'll see plenty of 'racist'/'homophobic' remarks, just as you would in the south. Whereas, in SF, for instance, that would be taboo, and in the evangelical land of the midwest, people would be too 'holier than thou'.

Trump appeals much more to the Eastern American. His best chances are there. You could very well see him take both NH and SC, but not Iowa, so that he only ends up with a plurality of delegates, only for him to lose at a brokered convention.

[Likely Voter]

I agree Rubio needs to find an early state to win. He cant go into Super Tuesday 0-4 and Florida is halfway through the entire season so he certainly cant wait for that

[dudeabides]

Jeb Bush and John Kasich will drop out after New Hampshire and throw their support to Rubio, the vast majority of their supporters (95-99% perhaps) will back Rubio. Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina will drop out early as well and while I doubt either will endorse Rubio, probably 90-95% of their supporters will also go to Rubio. Lindsay Graham will likely drop out after New Hampshire to avoid losing his home state, he will probably endorse Rubio and 90-95% of his supporters will go for Rubio.

Marco Rubio will win South Carolina and have momentum to win the majority of the states on Super Tuesday.

[Lief 🗽]

And I'm 95-99% you're just pulling numbers out of your ass, LOL.

[Maxwell]

And I'm 95-99% you're just pulling numbers out of your ass, LOL.

I'm only 90-95%.

[Bull Moose Base]

Jeb Bush and John Kasich will drop out after New Hampshire and throw their support to Rubio, the vast majority of their supporters (95-99% perhaps) will back Rubio. Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina will drop out early as well and while I doubt either will endorse Rubio, probably 90-95% of their supporters will also go to Rubio. Lindsay Graham will likely drop out after New Hampshire to avoid losing his home state, he will probably endorse Rubio and 90-95% of his supporters will go for Rubio.

Marco Rubio will win South Carolina and have momentum to win the majority of the states on Super Tuesday.

The New Hampshire PPP has Trump winning a 3-way with Rubio and Cruz. I assume Rubio would be even weaker in that scenario polled in SC given the fewer moderates. On top of that, in a hypothetical where Rubio doesn't win IA or NH, the momentum Trump and/or Cruz would get from earlier wins obviously would be a much stronger force than Bush or Kasich endorsements.

Don't see him notching a first win in SC.

[dudeabides]

And I'm 95-99% you're just pulling numbers out of your ass, LOL.

I'm only 90-95%.

And I'm 95-99% you're just pulling numbers out of your ass, LOL.

Gotta love the two trolls attacking me.

Jeb Bush and John Kasich will drop out after New Hampshire and throw their support to Rubio, the vast majority of their supporters (95-99% perhaps) will back Rubio. Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina will drop out early as well and while I doubt either will endorse Rubio, probably 90-95% of their supporters will also go to Rubio. Lindsay Graham will likely drop out after New Hampshire to avoid losing his home state, he will probably endorse Rubio and 90-95% of his supporters will go for Rubio.

Marco Rubio will win South Carolina and have momentum to win the majority of the states on Super Tuesday.

The New Hampshire PPP has Trump winning a 3-way with Rubio and Cruz. I assume Rubio would be even weaker in that scenario polled in SC given the fewer moderates. On top of that, in a hypothetical where Rubio doesn't win IA or NH, the momentum Trump and/or Cruz would get from earlier wins obviously would be a much stronger force than Bush or Kasich endorsements.

Don't see him notching a first win in SC.

You don't think once the establishment vote all goes to him, he won't be able to win there?

[°Leprechaun's Rainbow]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that Independents can vote in either primary in NH.
That gives them an advantage Republicans and Democrats don't have. In which primary will the majority of them vote? Could this hurt or help Rubio? Will it be more likely to help Sanders?