Is WI solid D in 2016?

[Red Willow]

According to recent polls, it seems WI has gone totally blue this cycle, with Hillary (and Sanders) already polling at over 50% against GOP rivals. Is WI going to be a solid blue state in 2016?

[EliteLX]

There is about an 8-9% chance max GOP takes Wisconsin in 2016. (rough estimate?)

Take that and call it what you will.

[bagelman]

I though there was supposed to be three levels: Lean, Strong, and Solid/Safe. WI would be Strong or Lean.

[I support Sanders]

Yes, it is, as are New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Depending on the Republican nominee, however, the GOP may have a shot at winning OH, VA, FL, IA, and CO.

[Kingpoleon]

No, but tilt D. And it's certainly more competitive than NH. Clinton probably wins WI by 2 or 3 points in a 50/50 election.

[ScottieF]

Lean D, but about as close to safe as any D-leaners are.

[Young Conservative]

Lean D, but about as close to safe as any D-leaners are.

Depending on the nominee, it could range from strong D to tilt R. I believe people underestimate the changes going on in the state as unions crumble and the very small number of polls being conducted there at the moment. I'm optimistic for republicans though! I would say most likely ranked as tilt D on average.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

WI should remain a D+3-4 state. So if Clinton wins nationally, she's winning WI. But she'd probably need to lose by 4-5% nationally to lose it.

In numbers, it's a tilt D, but in practice it's pretty reliable D.

[Young Conservative]

WI should remain a D+3-4 state. So if Clinton wins nationally, she's winning WI. But she'd probably need to lose by 4-5% nationally to lose it.

\
Interesting RCP shows Carson and Rubio lead clinton in the last national poll, but Sanders beats Carson and Rubio. Very strange probably an outlier that should be discarded!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

WI should remain a D+3-4 state. So if Clinton wins nationally, she's winning WI. But she'd probably need to lose by 4-5% nationally to lose it.

\
Interesting RCP shows Carson and Rubio lead clinton in the last national poll, but Sanders beats Carson and Rubio. Very strange probably an outlier that should be discarded!

Polls a year out should generally be discarded.

[Rockefeller GOP]

No, but tilt D. And it's certainly more competitive than NH. Clinton probably wins WI by 2 or 3 points in a 50/50 election.

[Likely Voter]

assuming Walker is not on the ticket, I assume the GOP will not include WI in their list of battlegrounds. Romney only really started to spend TV money there after picking Ryan and in the end it still was his worst state (among the battlegrounds). The GOP is better off spending all their 'break the blue wall' money on PA and not half-assing it like Romney did.

[Blue3]

Strongly Lean Democrat.


Like it has ALWAYS been.

[BlueSwan]

WI should remain a D+3-4 state. So if Clinton wins nationally, she's winning WI. But she'd probably need to lose by 4-5% nationally to lose it.

In numbers, it's a tilt D, but in practice it's pretty reliable D.

This!

[DS0816]

WI should remain a D+3-4 state. So if Clinton wins nationally, she's winning WI. But she'd probably need to lose by 4-5% nationally to lose it.

\
Interesting RCP shows Carson and Rubio lead clinton in the last national poll, but Sanders beats Carson and Rubio. Very strange probably an outlier that should be discarded!

I saw a poll in which Hillary Clinton wins a Democratic pickup of North Carolina (according to Elon University), by high six percentage points (which would require a shift of D+8 to get there), over Carly Fiorina while the two are tied (according to "Fox News" which has every Republican-vs.-Democratic matchup favoring Team Red) in the U.S. Popular Vote (which would require a Republican shift of R+3.86). Here: @ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/pres_general/ .

I will not be taking these national and state-by-state polls seriously. (Not yet.)

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean D. In a competitive election, the margin won't be over 10 points. Pretty much the range in 2016 is from Republicans narrowly winning by 1-2 points to Democrats winning by 10.

[Former Democrat]

Unfortunely WI moved the other direction as MN MI or PA
In a close election like 2000 Hillary will win WI by 3-4%

Rubio, Carson snd Fiorina eould have a chance there at least

[Adam Griffin]

It's "solid D" in terms of "it ain't gonna flip", but you could call it something else if you're referring to the strength of the Democrat's overall margin.

I don't think there'll be a candidate on either side - other than maybe Kasich - who could resonate as well as Obama in Wisconsin (and to the same degree, MN, IL, IA & MI). This could make it a bit tighter than Dems would like, but the GOP will have the same overall problem as well.

If Trump is the GOP nominee, then Clinton or Sanders theoretically won't have to spend a single dime in the Midwest firewall (of course, bolstering Senate prospects in WI & IL means spending campaign money is a good idea).

[Vosem]

Wisconsin is lean D. It is not particularly difficult to imagine it voting GOP in 2016, but in that circumstance the GOP has already won. It isn't a candidate for "decisive state".

[mencken]

According to recent polls, it seems WI has gone totally blue this cycle, with Hillary (and Sanders) already polling at over 50% against GOP rivals. Is WI going to be a solid blue state in 2016?

Carson 45%
Clinton 44%

Rubio 45%
Clinton 44%

I guess polls only count when they give you the results you like?

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Lean D is more appropriate, though if Hillary still leads by more than 5 percent by next summer, it could be considered Likely D as well. It's not Illinois or Oregon (which won't go Republican under any circumstances, sorry to burst your bubble), but it's definitely more Democratic than Iowa. In a close race,
it'll almost certainly go Democratic.

[Red Willow]

Unfortunely WI moved the other direction as MN MI or PA
In a close election like 2000 Hillary will win WI by 3-4%

Rubio, Carson snd Fiorina eould have a chance there at least

MI isn't moving R. Republicans always poll well there early in the cycle, because most early MI polls have both candidates under 45%.

[Mr. Illini]

If Wisconsin votes Republican, it will not be a difference maker. The GOP will have already put together a solid win nationally.

Yet, because it has potential to vote R in a solid GOP win and the margin will not be overly large regardless, it should be labeled Lean D.

[henster]

Hillary was trailing Marco Rubio by one point in the last MULaw and your saying its 'solid D'.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It could very well vote Republican, but we will have already won if it does.