Roosevelt Lives

[True Democrat]

After suffering a minor stroke in the first year of his fourth term, Franklin Roosevelt is still in politics.  Once again in 1948, the Democratic party has nominated Roosevelt, though a few Southern Senators challenged him in the primaries after Roosevelt began to support the fledgling civil rights movement.  Although Dewey tries for another shot at the nomination, the Republican establishment chooses Taft, even though Dewey won the majority of the primaries.  Taft chooses moderate former Republican nominee Wendell Willkie in an attempt to swing over moderate Republicans.  Roosevelt looks vulnerable after a hard recession hit the economy in early 1946.  He tried to use New Deal tactics, but it didn't work.  The economy is improving slightly with time, but it still doesn't look good.  Inflation for 1947 was 14%.  Roosevelt decides to keep Truman as his Vice-President, after showing leadership during Roosevelt's absence due to his stroke (Truman took over for a couple of days when Roosevelt had the stroke.  I know the disability amendment hasn't passed yet, but the Senate broke with the constitution and gave Truman emergency powers for a coupe of days.)  In foreign policy, three new conflicts have arisen: the Korean peninsula, the Chinese communist revolution, and the so-called "Cold War" over German territory.  FDR is still on good relations with Stalin, whcih many Americans find troubling.  Going into the election, Taft is holding a consistent 5 point lead.  Fearing loss, Roosevelt makes a bold move.  He tries to swing northerners and midwesterners by coming out in full support of the Civil Rights movement.  This loses him support in the South.  On election, Roosevelt squeaks by with a 5th term.  The closest state is New York, which Taft wins by about 12,000 votes, but it doesn't matter because Roosevelt wins Minnesota and Wisconsin giving him a victory.  Also, Roosevelt's support for the Civil Rights movement gives him Massachusetts and Rhode Island.  Late in the night, Alabama looks like it may go for Taft, but Roosevelt wins it 53-47.  Roosevelt loses major ground in the entire South, getting over 70% in only 2 states.  He does worse in South Carolina than any Democrat since Reconstruction.

Roosevelt/Truman: 50%, 266 electoral votes
Taft/Willkie: 49%, 265 electoral votes

[DanielX]

Uh... Willkie died in 1944 in OTL. Or did this change too?

[True Democrat]

Uh... Willkie died in 1944 in OTL. Or did this change too?

Oops, I didn't know that.  Well, he lived.  He was only 56 in 1948, so that's not too improbable to run for Vice-President.

[True Democrat]

1952:

After 20 years of Democratic rule, the Republicans are ready to win the White House.  In the Democratic nomination are Governor James Folsom of Alabama and former Rhode Island Senator and Governor J. Howard McGrath.  This is a battle between the old Democratic party and the new party.  The primaries are pretty much evenly split, but the South contains most of the establishment, who vote for Folsom.  Folsom picks Oklahoma Senator Robert S. Kerr as his running mate.

The Republican primaries are a little more eventful.  The three main candidates are California Senator Richard Nixon, California Governor Earl Warren, and recently turned Republican Minnesota Senator Hubert Humphrey.  Humphrey made history by being the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Minnesota since before Reconstruction.  However, since Roosevelt's fifth win, the Democrats in Congress had been taking an increasingly opposing stance to FDR, especially his civil rights policy.  Humphrey was very upset with this and left the Democratic party.  In the primaries, the establishment is split between Nixon and Warren, but Humphrey wins many primaries because of the split vote of the right.  Nixon does have the momentum early, but loses loses his essential California primary to Warren, which gives Humphrey enough momentum to capture the nominaton.

Red: Humphrey
Blue: Nixon
Green: Warren



At the Republican convention, Nixon is considered the smart choice for Vice-President, but Humphrey has developed a strong rivalry with Nixon.  Because of this, he makes a surprise choice.  He chooses Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater.

During the campaign, Humphrey quickly defines Folsom as a racist Dixiecrat.  Humphrey has a seven point lead going into the elction and does better than expected.  However, because of Humphrey's strong advocation for civil rights and the filibuster of civil rights bills, the South votes for Folsom in a records for a Democrat.  Folsom does win a few states out west though.

Humphrey/Goldwater: 54%, 349 electoral votes
Folsom/Kerr: 45%, 182 electoral votes

[True Democrat]

1956:

After a successful first term including a successful conclusion to the Korean War and the passage of the Civil Rights Act, Humphrey is expected to cruise to reelection.  Many of the moderate Republicans and what is left of the Northern Democrats have a formed a new unbeatable coalition in Congress.  However, Southern Whites still have a huge hatred of Humphrey.  Also, many Conservative Republicans are angry at Humphrey's liberal economic policies of continuing the New Deal.

For the Democratic nomination, the two candidates are Florida Governor Leroy Collins and Kansas Representative J. Floyd Breeding.  Conservative Republicans urge the Democrats to pick Breeding because then many Republicans would rally behind Breeding.  The primaries are split, and there is no clear winner going into the convention.

Red: Collins
Blue: Breeding



As no delegates are willing to budge, a compromise candidate must come through.  The Southern Democrats demand a Southerner at the top of the ticket, so the young Governor George Wallace of Alabama is chosen.  When news of this is heard, many Northern Democrats walk out of the convention.  Collins then gets the VP spot.

Because Breeding was not chosen, conservative Republicans have no one to turn to.  They decide to have their own convention under the Conservative Party name.  The obvious choice for President is Robert B. Crosby.  To try to win over disaffected Democrats, the Conservative Party chooses Breeding for Vice-President.

With a three way election, Humphrey's reelection numbers go way down.  A poll released after the Conservative Nomination occurs shows the following:

Humphrey/Goldwater: 36%
Wallace/Collins: 35%
Crosby/Breeding: 14%
Undecided/Other: 15%

To add to Humphrey's concerns, Goldwater decides to leave the ticket a month before the election.  This loses all support from Conservative Republicans Humphrey could hope to get.  People tell Humphrey to choose Nelson Rockefeller, but he wants to appeal to Democrats.  He decides to choose Maine Governor Edmund Muskie.  Humphrey's campaign really loses support to Crosby.  On election day, it's evident the Wallace will win because of split Republican support.  In the South, Wallace does worse because of the many African-Americans voting for Humphrey.  The Northeast goes for Humphrey, the midwest for Crosby, and the West for Wallace because of the split votes.  Wallace also does very well in the upper Midwest.  The only suprise win is Humphrey in West Virginia.

Wallace/Collins: 40%, 312 electoral votes
Humphrey/Muskie: 35%, 197 electoral votes
Crosby/Breeding: 25%, 22 electoral votes

[DanielX]

Some of these folks are rather young/inexperienced... Wallace, Goldwater, Muskie in the fifties? Even Humphrey is kind of stretching plausibility a little...

[True Democrat]

Some of these folks are rather young/inexperienced... Wallace, Goldwater, Muskie in the fifties? Even Humphrey is kind of stretching plausibility a little...

I know.  I realized I made all the candidates really young.

[True Democrat]

1960:

Wallace has become the champion of the Democrats in the South and the working class.  He got a lot of legislation passed in support of unions.  However, his attempt to repeal the Civil Rights Act failed because of the agreement by pro-civil rights Senators to lower cloture to 65 votes.  Liberals however are still angry at him for his racism.  Many more pro-civil rights bills had been passed by overriding Wallace's veto.

Republicans, who are still controlled by the Humphrey wing of the party, are split between their nomination.  The original frontrunner is another Minnesotan, Eugene McCarthy.  However, after his win in New Hampshire, McCarthy comes off as too liberal, so the Republican base turns to Nelson Rockefeller.  Rockefeller goes onto overwhelmingly win the nomination.  Most conservative Republicans boycott the primaries.

Blue: Rockefeller
Red: McCarthy



Rockefeller has a chance to win over a portion of the conservative wing with a good VP choice, but instead he solidifies the liberal base and picks McCarthy.

The Conservative Party again runs a candidate again.  With no primaries, Harold W. Handley runs unopposed for the nomination.  He is the Governor of Indiana.  For his running mate, he picks former Vice President Barry Goldwater to provide credibility to the ticket.

The Democrats renominate Wallace with no opposition.

A new poll taken after Handley's nomination shows the following:

Handley/Goldwater: 21%
Wallace/Collins: 28%
Rockefeller/McCarthy: 27%
Undecided/Other: 24%

Party ID:
Republican: 32%
Democrat: 28%
Conservative: 17%
Independent: 23%

The Conservatives are picking up steam in both ID and support.  Instead of running a campaign trying to attack the Republicans, Handley decides to draw support away from Wallace.  Handley is successful in drawing away conservatives who are in favor of the civil rights movement.  Rockefeller makes himself look like he's above the everyday American by making long speeches with words no one can understand.  (Think Stevenson in real life)  McCarthy doesn't help Rockefeller's image.  He goes around and is named "The Crazy Liberal" by both Wallace and Handley.  On election day, it's expected to be close between all three candidates, but surprisingly Handley wins it and even gets a majority in the electoral college.  Wallace does worse in the South because turnout among Afircan-Americans increases to his disadvantage.  Rockefeller only does well in the Northeast.  Wallace does well in the South and upper midwest, while Handley wins the West, Plains, and the midwest.

Handley/Goldwater: 37%, 279 electoral votes
Walllace/Collins: 34%, 166 electoral votes
Rockefeller/McCarthy: 29%, 92 electoral votes



Everyone is shocked by Handley's huge win.  The Republicans are in disarray.  They got less than 30% of the vote.

The Senate and House stand as follows:

Senate:
Democrats: 34
Republicans: 43
Conservatives: 23

In the Senate, many Republicans have switched over to the Conservative party.  Many Conservative Republicans have not yet switched though.  Of the Democrats, 26 of them come from the Confederacy states + Oklahoma and Kentucky.  The rest are mainly from the West.  All Northeastern Democrats except one have switched over to the Republicans.

House:
Democrats: 214
Republicans: 124
Conservatives: 97

In the House, for the first time since 1930, the Democrats do not havea majority.  The Conservatives have had some success in electing candidates to the House.  Democrats still maintain a majority because of the gerrmandering still present from the FDR days.

[True Democrat]

1964:

After a corruption scandal broke involving the President and Secretary of Defense in 1963, the Conservative party is in horrible shape.  In the 1962 midterms, they did gain big, but in the  coming election, they appear to heading for a loss.  For the first time, primaries are held.  The main candidates Vice-President Goldwater and recently turned Conservative Joel Thomas Broyhill, a representative from Virginia's 10th district, one of only two Conservative Representatives from the South.  Although Goldwater has the name recognition and the experience, many Conservatives feel nominating him would connect the ticket too much to the scandal.  It is fairly close, but Broyhill comes out with a fairly large lead in the end.

Blue: Goldwater
Red: Broyhill



To win over the support of midwest Conservatives, Broyhill picks South Dakota Senator Joe Bottum.

For the Democrats, the two candidates are former President George Wallace, who tries to run again, and West Virginia Robert Byrd.  Recently, the Democrats have been moving away from their pro-segregation image.  Byrd, although against the Civil Rights
Act, is not as staunchly racist as Wallace.  The Democrats are tired of Wallace, and they easily pick Byrd to be the nominee.

Red: Wallace
Blue: Byrd



Byrd decides to pick Georgia Governor Lester Maddox to keep the support of the South.

For the Republicans, former President Hubert Humphrey is still the most respected statesman in the party.  He decides to run for the nomination once more.  No one opposes him.  He chooses Republican Senator John Kennedy of Massachusetts as his running mate to maintain the Northeast.  Humphrey, who recently has been an outspoken advocate of unions, takes many pro-labor voters away from Byrd.  Broyhill cannot overcome the election scandal, and Byrd is still plagued with the racism of the Democratic party.  Voters see Humphrey as a man of experience.  They easily elect him to the White House.  D.C. votes for the first time and it casts is votes overwhelmingly for the Republicans. 

Humphrey/Kennedy: 42%, 316 electoral votes
Byrd/Maddox: 35%, 190 electoral votes
Broyhill/Bottum: 23%, 32 electoral votes

[True Democrat]

1968:

After four years of President Humphrey, the economy is in a slight recession.  Humphrey keeps trying to express that is was his predecessor's fault, but he is not believed.  In international affairs, Humphrey is riding high after convincing the UN to go into Vietnam and winning the war in only a couple of months.  It seemed unlikely that the UN would get involved at first, but Humphrey some how convinced the Security Council.  Humphrey has continued to sign legislation for civil rights and helping the poor.  He has continued to be a solid supporter of unions.  Many Southern and Midwestern Democrats have switched to the Republican party.  The anti-labor Democrats and Conservatives have agreed to unite in an effort to oust Humphrey.  They have come up with a primary plan where the winners of each party's primaries will be featured on the ticket.  The top of the ticket will be determined by a unity convention.  Although this may present infighting, the winner will be determined on the first ticket.  The Vice-Presidential candidate will then have a sort of co-Presidency (think Ford in 1980).

In the Conervative primaries, there is only one candidate: John G. Schmitz.  He is not challenged by anyone because the Conservatives believe if there is no infighting in the party, they will get the top of the ticket.

The Democratic primary is a little more split.  The main candidates are former Governor and Vice-Presidential candidate, Lester Maddox, Governor Hulett C. Smith of West Virginia, and Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee.  Maddox represents the old Southern Democratic party, while Smith represents the new pro-labor wing.  Gore represents a compromise between the two.  He is a Southerner, but is not pro-segregation.  He also slightly supports unions.  Gore goes onto to barely win the split primaries.

Red: Gore
Blue: Smith
Green: Maddox



At the joint convention, Schmitz easily wins the vote for the top of the ticket after many delegates from the Deep South vote for him instead of Gore.  The Conservative even get the Convention to officially put the ticket under the Conservative Party name.  The Schmitz/Gore ticket is easily leading Humphrey early on.  Here is a poll taken right after the convention:

Schmitz/Gore: 51%
Humphrey/Kennedy: 38%
Undecided/Other: 11%

Humphrey realizes he can't just win by getting undecided voters.  He has to win over Schmitz supporters.  Going into the debates, Humphrey is still down 49-44.  However, in the debate, Schmitz makes a fool of himself when he answers two questions with reponses that have nothing to do with the questions.  His lack of experience is clearly shown.  Also, Schmitz is shown to be the farthest right of any Conservative candidate to date.  Even though Gore has a solid victory in the Vice-Presidential debate, the damage is doen to the campaign.  The economy also begins to pick up steam in September.  Humphrey looks hopeful.  On election night, the networks are expecting a 50-50 race.  However, Humphrey comes out with a solid electoral victory, even though the popular vote is close.  Humphrey wins his states with much lesser margins than Schmitz.  However, in the South, Humphrey does extremely well, especially in big labo states.  African-American turnout reaches 78%, compared to 64% nationally.  This really boosts Humphrey to win the election.

Humphrey/Kennedy: 51%
Schmitz/Gore (Green b/c of Schmitz at top of ticket): 47%