Club for Growth Considering Backing Laffey's Challenge to Chafee

[Moooooo]

From The Hill:

Pat Toomey, the president of the Club for Growth, would apparently like Cranston, R.I., Mayor Steve Laffey to do in 2006 what Toomey did in 2004: challenge a GOP senator in a primary.

In an interview with The Hill yesterday, former Rep. Toomey (R-Pa.) said he had spoken in recent weeks with Laffey about running against centrist Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.), presumably to urge Laffey to run.

Calling Laffey “a potentially very strong candidate,” Toomey added that it remains unclear if the mayor will challenge Chafee, one of the most vulnerable Senate Republicans up for reelection next year.

A challenge from the right would be the best thing for Democrats in Rhode Island. If Laffey wins the primary, we would have a much higher chance of beating him than Chafee. And if Chafee won, he would still be forced to spend millions to win the primary, which would weaken him in the general election.

[AuH2O]

You know, if the nuclear option is used... what good is Chaffee, anyway?

The main thing I would want to know is how Laffey polls against the Democratic options. Since the top 2 Democrats pulled out already, I would imagine Laffey actually could win, though he would not be favored.

[Moooooo]

You know, if the nuclear option is used... what good is Chaffee, anyway?

The main thing I would want to know is how Laffey polls against the Democratic options. Since the top 2 Democrats pulled out already, I would imagine Laffey actually could win, though he would not be favored.

Does the Club for Growth actually have some pull in RI?  Could they sway Laffey to run, and maybe even have an effect on the primary?

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Go ahead, hand us a free Senate seat.

[Erc]

I'd rather have a moderate-to-liberal Republican than a liberal Democrat.

[TheresNoMoney]

Would love to see Laffey win the primary.

[AuH2O]

You know, if the nuclear option is used... what good is Chaffee, anyway?

The main thing I would want to know is how Laffey polls against the Democratic options. Since the top 2 Democrats pulled out already, I would imagine Laffey actually could win, though he would not be favored.

Does the Club for Growth actually have some pull in RI?  Could they sway Laffey to run, and maybe even have an effect on the primary?

They have money, which is always a plus, though not a ton of activity in RI itself. There's no doubt they can affect the primary-- though it's unclear whether that would be enough to change the outcome.

This is a tough call, really. Chaffee did side with the GOP in a number of extremely close votes, though of course he went against the party more often than not and is particularly weak on taxes.

Like I said though, this is a case where polling data is needed to see what chance Laffey would have in the general.

[A18]

I'd rather have a moderate-to-liberal Republican than a liberal Democrat.

Agreed. The Club for Growth needs to know where to pick its battles.

[Alcon]

Republicans aren't going to get anyone better than Chaffee in Rhode Island.

Democrats could, but why kill a potential ally in the senate? Dangle opposition over him and make him even more friendly to their desires.

Everybody wins. Well, except poor Chaffee.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'd rather have a moderate-to-liberal Republican than a liberal Democrat.

Agreed. The Club for Growth needs to know where to pick its battles.

Not bloody well likely, as they try to club anybody who dares step out of their rabid anti-tax mantra.  They ran ads against Sen. Graham  a month or so ago because he dared to suggest that raising the cap on the amount of wages subject to payroll tax was something worth considering as part of a Social Security reform that also included private accounts.

[Smash255]

THE GOP seat has a 50/50 chance of flipping with Chafee running, if :affey defeats Chafee in the primary it will easily flip

[Keystone Phil]

THE GOP seat has a 50/50 chance of flipping with Chafee running, if :affey defeats Chafee in the primary it will easily flip

I'd say more than 50/50. Recent polls show Chafee up by about 10 points.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

THE GOP seat has a 50/50 chance of flipping with Chafee running, if :affey defeats Chafee in the primary it will easily flip

I'd say more than 50/50. Recent polls show Chafee up by about 10 points.

41% is a bad place for an incumbent to be.

[Keystone Phil]

THE GOP seat has a 50/50 chance of flipping with Chafee running, if :affey defeats Chafee in the primary it will easily flip

I'd say more than 50/50. Recent polls show Chafee up by about 10 points.

41% is a bad place for an incumbent to be.

While that's true, Chafee will be a much stronger candidate than the likely Dem nominee.

[A18]

They also turned against Specter from some reason, even though he supports a flat tax.

[Smash255]

THE GOP seat has a 50/50 chance of flipping with Chafee running, if :affey defeats Chafee in the primary it will easily flip

I'd say more than 50/50. Recent polls show Chafee up by about 10 points.

So when polls show Chafee up by about 10 you believe its accurate, but when Casey is leading your buddy Santorum by even a larger margin in the polls, you think that although Casey is ahead its much closer than the polls suggest???....

[Jake]

I think Phil's saying it has a much higher chance of flipping then only 50-50.

[12th Doctor]

They also turned against Specter from some reason, even though he supports a flat tax.

Specter supports whatever is suits him at the time.

[Keystone Phil]

THE GOP seat has a 50/50 chance of flipping with Chafee running, if :affey defeats Chafee in the primary it will easily flip

I'd say more than 50/50. Recent polls show Chafee up by about 10 points.

So when polls show Chafee up by about 10 you believe its accurate, but when Casey is leading your buddy Santorum by even a larger margin in the polls, you think that although Casey is ahead its much closer than the polls suggest???....

Having Casey up by about fourteen points is outrageous, Smash. I said he'd probably up by about seven points. Like I said, Chafee won't have that strong of a challenger. That's why Chafee's chances are more than 50/50.

Also to A18, while Specter suports a flat tax, he is not an economic consrvative. I loved when he would say that yet went around telling people that he wanted to be the "Robert Byrd of Pennsylvania" when it came to pork.

[12th Doctor]

THE GOP seat has a 50/50 chance of flipping with Chafee running, if :affey defeats Chafee in the primary it will easily flip

I'd say more than 50/50. Recent polls show Chafee up by about 10 points.

So when polls show Chafee up by about 10 you believe its accurate, but when Casey is leading your buddy Santorum by even a larger margin in the polls, you think that although Casey is ahead its much closer than the polls suggest???....

Typically, the only people who are paying attention early in a race are those that really hate the incumbent.  Later, as the campaign acctually starts to get going, the incumbent will enjoy about a 10% bounce in the polls.

Santorum is widely know as being one of the best campaigners in America, today.  Better than Bush/Rove even.  He hasn't yet begun to fight.  Also, this time around, Specter has announced, for sure, that he will use his machine to help Santorum in '06.  Meanwhile, Casey has almost no serious campaign expirience.  The only highstakes statewide race he has ever run was an absolute embarasment for him (don't get me wrong, I still like the guy, but....).  Not to mention that this is going to be a national race.  As I have said about a billion times, there are only two people in PA who know how to run a national race, Santorum and Specter.

Personally, I am conflicted on this.  Not because I don't like Chaffee.  A win for Chaffee in both the primary and general means that we get to keep a seat in traditionally non-Republican territory.  This is good for our national image.

However, if Chaffee is eliminated in the primary, this seat is totally lost, which means that we can take the money that we would otherwise be spending on a close race, and put it towards races in PA, Tennessee, Florida, Washington and Minnesota, where we have a much higher probability of success.

[Soup18]

Go Club for Growth! Chafee is a Democrat anyway

[A18]

Also to A18, while Specter suports a flat tax, he is not an economic consrvative. I loved when he would say that yet went around telling people that he wanted to be the "Robert Byrd of Pennsylvania" when it came to pork.

Pork is a very small part of the budget. The Club for Growth is all about, well, growth ... and the Specter Flat Tax would be very pro-growth.

[Smash255]

Go Club for Growth! Chafee is a Democrat anyway

So you would rather a liberal Democrat over a moderate to liberal RINO??  Do you realize this is Rhode Island and a Conservative Republican has about the same chance of winning a senate seat as a liberal Democrat has of winning in Alabama.  Hey I like Chafee, but I would take a liberal Dem anyday.  SO if the GOP & Club for Growth wants to run someone after Chafee in the Primary go right ahead, Laffey wins the primary they can just hand the seat over to the Dems

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amusing thing about Chafee is that he doesn't fit into the National Republicans but doesn't fit into the Rhode Island Democrats either.

[WalterMitty]

i think the club for growth is an outstanding organization.

be that as it may, i strongly support chafee for reelection.