Quinnipiac national poll: D: Clinton 60% Sanders 30%; R: Trump 27% Rubio 17%
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  Quinnipiac national poll: D: Clinton 60% Sanders 30%; R: Trump 27% Rubio 17%
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac national poll: D: Clinton 60% Sanders 30%; R: Trump 27% Rubio 17%  (Read 2403 times)
mencken
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« Reply #25 on: December 02, 2015, 06:24:27 PM »

The people bragging about all the moderate support Trump has are conveniently ignoring that 34% of moderates (compared to 20% somewhat conservatives and 25% of very conservatives) would not support Trump under any circumstances. Trump's increased 'moderate' support is an artifact of the ridiculous categorization of Buchananite/Paulite populists and WASPy social moderates under the same ideological label, because both groups have more than a handful of conventionally liberal policy positions.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #26 on: December 02, 2015, 07:26:37 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2015, 07:49:44 PM by EliteLX »

The people bragging about all the moderate support Trump has are conveniently ignoring that 34% of moderates (compared to 20% somewhat conservatives and 25% of very conservatives) would not support Trump under any circumstances. Trump's increased 'moderate' support is an artifact of the ridiculous categorization of Buchananite/Paulite populists and WASPy social moderates under the same ideological label, because both groups have more than a handful of conventionally liberal policy positions.

Thank you.

Well, it's more than any other candidate, so...

Annddd that says nothing more than the primary is still competitive if a candidate's max "locked in" percentage is 12%, so.. you're somewhat agreeing with my point saying such a thing.

Trump has more voters decided for him than low-energy losers Bush and Kasich have, period. Hell, if you "unskew" the poll, Trump blows away the rest of the field even more.

Never claimed otherwise, but the unskew point is silly.

Donald's ABSOLUTE MAX cap for GOP Nomination preference as of right now is 33%. Notice I said max, he hangs around the 23-28% range.
No his max according to this very poll is 74%. Of course you Trump truthers will still find a way to argue even that is not enough.

Eh, no, it doesn't quite work like that:

I will never in a hundred years have Rick Santorum as my #1 nomination spot but I wouldn't "not vote for him under any circumstances." when it came down to primary night if it trickled down to a specific nominee. I would argue at least 60% of the Republican Party does not want Donald J Trump as the final nominee at all. A majority of the party does not want to see him holding the ticket in 2016 and that's my exact point.

I'm not a Trump truther. I'm not denying his success in the primary these past months. He's had resounding success and it absolutely BLOWS my mind. I'm ashamed of the third who are glued to wanting to nominate the guy. I'm simply trying to make sense of this entire thing. He's successful and he's polling #1 in the field but he's usually polling just under a quarter as the nominee each time.

Mark my specific words and print this page on the wall: if Donald is the nominee once the General Election is done these people are going to have so much remorse to see how badly he trashed this party.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #27 on: December 02, 2015, 08:57:17 PM »

The people bragging about all the moderate support Trump has are conveniently ignoring that 34% of moderates (compared to 20% somewhat conservatives and 25% of very conservatives) would not support Trump under any circumstances. Trump's increased 'moderate' support is an artifact of the ridiculous categorization of Buchananite/Paulite populists and WASPy social moderates under the same ideological label, because both groups have more than a handful of conventionally liberal policy positions.

Maybe conveniently ignoring is the wrong word - "didn't see that" is the correct phrase.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #28 on: December 02, 2015, 09:52:51 PM »

EliteLX the people that support Trump are so beyond caring about the Republican Party as an institution.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #29 on: December 02, 2015, 10:00:26 PM »

EliteLX the people that support Trump are so beyond caring about the Republican Party as an institution.
PUMA
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #30 on: December 02, 2015, 10:24:26 PM »

The idea that Trump is stuck at 27% or whatever is again just subjective wishful thinking. There's no evidence in polling that this is his ceiling.

Huh?  Sure, he *could* end up getting a larger share of the vote than he currently polls, but Silver et al. are predicting that he won’t.  Not sure how that squares with what you were talking about in your earlier post, suggesting that “Nate Silver told me” that “all the Trump supporters were going to magically stop supporting him“.  Where does Silver say that *current* Trump supporters are going to defect away from him en masse?  As far as I can recall, he’s said that he can see Trump staying somewhere in the 20% range or whatever during the primaries, but not winning the nomination.

Back in August, for example, Silver explicitly says that while he thinks Trump is going to lose, he’s agnostic about how it happens, and in what stage of the game victory slips away from him:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

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Nothing that’s happening in the polls right now is contradicting that assessment from months ago.  (Nor confirming it.  It’s still early!)
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #31 on: December 02, 2015, 10:48:07 PM »

Eventually the anti-Trump forces will coalesce around 1-2 other candidates
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