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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  UT- Dan Jones: Carson remained in the lead, Trump fell to 4th place
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Author Topic: UT- Dan Jones: Carson remained in the lead, Trump fell to 4th place  (Read 2127 times)
weixiaobao
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« on: November 22, 2015, 04:24:09 am »

Utah was never Trump's strong suit, in July he was third to Bush/Rubio at 8%.  When he reached his high in September, he was 15% to Carson's 23%.

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/7709-utahns-and-utah-republicans-say-ben-carson-is-their-top-presidential-pick

For the first half of November,
Carson 30
Cruz 14
Rubio 12
Trump 9
Bush 8

Fiorina 4
Christie 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
Jindal 1
Huckabee, Pataki, Santorum 0
Other 2 (probably democrat)
Don't know 14
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Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2015, 07:10:54 am »

Utah was never Trump's strong suit, in July he was third to Bush/Rubio at 8%.  When he reached his high in September, he was 15% to Carson's 23%.

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/7709-utahns-and-utah-republicans-say-ben-carson-is-their-top-presidential-pick

For the first half of November,
Carson 30
Cruz 14
Rubio 12
Trump 9
Bush 8

Fiorina 4
Christie 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
Jindal 1
Huckabee, Pataki, Santorum 0
Other 2 (probably democrat)
Don't know 14

lol.
If Trump comes in fourth place in any state while he's still in the race I'll eat my hat.
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mencken
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2015, 10:58:37 am »

Utah was never Trump's strong suit, in July he was third to Bush/Rubio at 8%.  When he reached his high in September, he was 15% to Carson's 23%.

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/7709-utahns-and-utah-republicans-say-ben-carson-is-their-top-presidential-pick

For the first half of November,
Carson 30
Cruz 14
Rubio 12
Trump 9
Bush 8

Fiorina 4
Christie 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
Jindal 1
Huckabee, Pataki, Santorum 0
Other 2 (probably democrat)
Don't know 14

lol.
If Trump comes in fourth place in any state while he's still in the race I'll eat my hat.

Is it surprising that Trump would not resonate in the heart of Mormon country?
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2015, 11:01:53 am »

Maybe Trump should start insulting Mormons.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2015, 11:04:00 am »

Maybe Trump should start insulting Mormons.

lol, he doesn't need the west.  He should still focus on the South and the Northeast.  Plus being competitive in the Midwest and the West coast.

The Paris attack really switching things up for Trump. 
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2015, 06:14:05 pm »

Maybe Trump should start insulting Mormons.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2015, 08:45:38 pm »

As I've said before, Utah's primary is late enough that it presumably won't matter.  However, the Utah polls are still interesting in the limited sense that they give an insight into how the Mormons are leaning.  It's a big slice of the GOP caucus electorate in Nevada, and I'll be curious to see which way it goes this time, with no Mormon presidential candidate on the ballot.
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
realisticidealist
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« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2015, 10:34:42 am »

Maybe Trump should start insulting Mormons.

lol, he doesn't need the west.  He should still focus on the South and the Northeast.  Plus being competitive in the Midwest and the West coast.

The Paris attack really switching things up for Trump.  

He will likely win in California and Nevada; so who cares for Utah? I think The Donald is seen as too moderate for the very conservative state Utah.

Mormons aren't really that conservative, though they are very inelastically Republican. I think their lack of support for Trump stems from his brash attitude and harsh tone toward immigrants.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2015, 10:51:36 am »

Trump will take care of the mormans once he's elected, of that I'm sure.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2015, 03:27:27 pm »

Wow, Trump really does have a Utah problem. #BattlegroundUtah
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Wells
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« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2015, 03:49:07 pm »

Doesn't matter in the overall primary. I don't see a way that Trump can lose the GOP nomination. He'll still win Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. And then this won't matter.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2015, 01:13:33 am »

Here's a fun trivia question:

Q: In the 2000 GOP presidential primaries, in what state did Alan Keyes get his biggest share of the vote?
A: Utah, where he came in second, with 21%.

I can only conclude from this that Utahans have long yearned for a black Republican president.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2015, 08:29:38 am »

Trump would do weakly enough with Mormons due to his business (gambling casinos, where aside from gambling is much smoking and drinking, both anathemas to devout Mormons). I'm not saying this, but should the LDS hierarchy turn on Trump, Utah becomes interesting in the 2016 election for a change, at least for the Presidency.

Bush, Carson, and Rubio seem to utterly destroy Hillary Clinton in Utah, and I would expect much the same with Cruz or Fiorina. Trump would be the worst fit for a Republican in Utah since Goldwater. Even worse, Arizona goes from being on the fringe of contention in a near-even Presidential race to a legitimate swing state. Republicans lost the Presidency in 2008 and 2012 because Barack Obama was able to make states that usually go R (CO, FL, VA, NC) into swing states that Republicans had to defend. Republicans need to make states like Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania into "swing" states to have a real chance.

 
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Deranged California Suburbanite
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2015, 06:32:17 pm »

Trump would do weakly enough with Mormons due to his business (gambling casinos, where aside from gambling is much smoking and drinking, both anathemas to devout Mormons). I'm not saying this, but should the LDS hierarchy turn on Trump, Utah becomes interesting in the 2016 election for a change, at least for the Presidency.

Bush, Carson, and Rubio seem to utterly destroy Hillary Clinton in Utah, and I would expect much the same with Cruz or Fiorina. Trump would be the worst fit for a Republican in Utah since Goldwater. Even worse, Arizona goes from being on the fringe of contention in a near-even Presidential race to a legitimate swing state. Republicans lost the Presidency in 2008 and 2012 because Barack Obama was able to make states that usually go R (CO, FL, VA, NC) into swing states that Republicans had to defend. Republicans need to make states like Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania into "swing" states to have a real chance.
 

While it still wouldn't be anything close to a swing state, Idaho could get interesting as well. I think that they're about 25% Mormon.
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