Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

O.K... do you all want a seperate results thread (ala U.K election) or do you want to keep it all in this thread?

I'd like you to all behave regardless; although I'm thinking of drawing up a list of candidates that you're aloud to gloat in an obnoxious way if they're defeated... Lapierre, Goodale, Wappel, etc... actually if Wappel loses, gloating should probably be compulsory...

[angus]

Well, I had communicated to Al privately to say that there is surprisingly little interest in Canadian elections here, compared to US interest in say Iraq, Germany, UK, etc., given that Canada is our number-one trading partner.  At least the sheer volume of print media and televised media stories is quite low it seems.  So I've done some homework to answer some of my own questions.  First, gay marriage is a HUGE issue in this campaign.  Stephen Harper (Conservative Leader) has promised to hold a "free vote" in the House of Commons on the issue if he forms a government.  This likely has given CPC an edge.  Because unlike the U.S. system, Canadian parliament members (MPs) are expected to vote the party line.  Harper maintains that the traditional definition of marriage of one man + one woman can be restored by a "free vote" wherein under unusual circumstances MPs are released to vote their consciences.   However, many constitutional experts disagree with Harper.  They think any move to end same-sex marriage will require use of a device called the "notwithstanding clause" (which overrules part of the Charter of Rights in our constitution.)  Not easy to do.  Nevertheless Harper and his Conservative colleagues are playing up the issue it seems.

Also, relationships with the United States have been and remain a huge issue.  Harper says he will "...improve relations between Canada and the United States, which comprise the world's largest trading bloc and conduct some $1.5 billion in business daily," according to WaPo Beth Duff-Brown, and it's probably a safe bet that although the Bushies are reticent to make public pronouncements, they would like to see a CPC victory, especially given the outcry from the Bush Administration's ambassador to Canada over Martin's well-publicized photo-op with Clinton during a Kyoto follow-up conference in Montreal early in the campaign.  It should also be noted that Harper wants to spend more on Canada's military, expand its peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan and tighten security along the border with the United States to stop terrorists and guns from crossing.  No doubt the GOP likes the tune he's singing.

Promises of reform on Social Welfare, health care, childcare, crime and other programs also seem to have affected the allegiances, and this, coupled with the fact that MPs are under such constraints to vote the party line (again, unlike in the USA) that we have a pretty good explanation of the shifts.

Of course there could be other explanations for a mass shifts to CPC.  A cow from Alberta just tested positive for Mad Cow disease yesterday.

The official prediction can be found in today's New York Times.  All the news that's fit to print. 

"And then some."
     --Jayson Blair

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-Canada-Election.html

Still, whether there's any real shift at the ballot box is another issue.  We'll just have to wait for the reporting won't we?   

Keep it here, Al. 

The globe and mail also has some good reporting, just FYI.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/

[angus]

Here's a fun feature for the serious junkies among you:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/elections/fed2005/fragments/results/provincialResults.html

You click on the province for breakdown by parties (e.g., CPC, NDP, the marijuana party, etc.)  It's empty now, but stay tuned at 10:00 pm EST.

Given our national lack of interest, I've been turning to canadian sources more and more over WaPo and NYT.  Though ye olde Jerusalem blog has become pretty detailed I see.  You could just put your data all there, Al, and make brief posts as you update.  Makes you look like a popular guy to get all those hits.  Of course, it'll bog you down if you're dialing up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's a fun feature for the serious junkies among you:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/elections/fed2005/fragments/results/provincialResults.html

You click on the province for breakdown by parties (e.g., CPC, NDP, the marijuana party, etc.)  It's empty now, but stay tuned at 10:00 pm EST.

Cool

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I could do; problem is results don't come online anywhere til about 3am my time (or is it 2am? or 4am?) due to the daft blackout law.
Predictions should all be done soon (even if a lot of safe Ont/Qu. ridings won't get individually named...) though

Now to check if any radio station over here is covering the results in anyway...

[ATFFL]

The Tories could have a decent amount of time in charge, 18-24 months or more, if things fall out that no one will want to have a quick election.  The Blac may not want one if it looks likely that the Libs will recover and regain some seats in Quebec.  This alone would be enough to keep the Cons in power.

The NDP may want to keep the status quo if they gain a lot of seats and think that the next election will see people return to the Libs to get the Cons out of power.

The Liberals may want to keep the Cons in power in the hopes that things fall apart and the country will turn back to them.  If things go the same or better, people may be less afraid of taking power from them in the future.

Harper's best bet is to play the other 3 against each other and offer just enough bones to keep them all happy enough for now. 

Of course, things could fall apart quickly.

[Siege40]

Just so I can look stupid in 6 hours or so, I'm predicting...

CPC - 129
LPC - 81
BQ(of C?) - 61
NDP - 37

Thank you and good night.

[bullmoose88]

Conservatives-130
Liberals-91
Bloc-53
NDP-34

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have made a predictions thread for you all

Post all results and stuff in this thread.

Thanks

*Is tired now; needs sleep...*

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ballot box busted open in Central Nova riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone want to illegaly post the results so far? Polls have closed in Atlantic Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone want to illegaly post the results so far? Polls have closed in Atlantic Canada.

This website is outside the US, it would not even be illegal

I know

[Cubby]

I can't wait for tomorrow night. I'll probably be depressed and dissapointed, but I still can't wait. It'll be Canada's 1980 election

Please don't go too far Canada........

I am very disappointed that you decided to support corruption, lies, broken promises and Canada's other Conservative Party instead of positive change (for the NDP)

Ouch.

Please remember how little I know of Canadian Politics compared to some of you. Come to think of it, the Kids in the Hall never did anything about politics, I don't remember any Mulroney jokes.

A) I'm afraid of Change in this case
B) I have one issue riding (no pun intended) on this election, and the Liberals were the ones that got the job done.
C) Earl as I've said before, if I was Canadian, I'd be in your party (NDP) I don't have the same perspective down here. Its either one party or a polar opposite.

I can't wait for tomorrow night. I'll probably be depressed and dissapointed, but I still can't wait. It'll be Canada's 1980 election

Please don't go too far Canada........

The Liberals won a majority in the 1980 election.  I think you're thinking of the 1984 election, in which the Conservatives won a much larger victory than they're likely to get in this election.  The country wasn't demolished after that election; somehow I get the sense it will survive this one.

I suspect the 1980 election that Pym was referring to was the American election, not the Canadian.

That is correct. Not just a regular conservative victory but the beginning of 26 years of Republican dominance.

[Emsworth]

I've been watching the CBC coverage... It appears that the Tories are doing much better than expected in Quebec (although no seats have been won yet).

[Cubby]

I can't wait for tomorrow night. I'll probably be depressed and dissapointed, but I still can't wait. It'll be Canada's 1980 election

Please don't go too far Canada........

The Liberals won a majority in the 1980 election.  I think you're thinking of the 1984 election, in which the Conservatives won a much larger victory than they're likely to get in this election.  The country wasn't demolished after that election; somehow I get the sense it will survive this one.

I suspect the 1980 election that Pym was referring to was the American election, not the Canadian.

What happened in the 1980 US election... ?

Didn't you yanks elect some old fool who took naps and told jokes all the time.

Other than winning the cold war, ending the arms race, freeing hundred of millions of people from communism, starting the longest economic expansion in US history, cutting unemployment from 10% to 5%, dropping inflation from 18% to 2%, cutting interest rates from 20% to 5%, and reducing income taxes 25% across the board I can't think of a single meaningful thing he did...

Given the way you yanks reacted in 2004 when he died, (damn near shutting down the nation for a week, 100s of thousands waiting in line to pay respects and all), you might have thought THE GREATEST PRESIDENT OF THE 20TH CENTURY had does or something...

<<this post is, of course, not related to this thread, so please ignore >>

When I first read this I was like "Wow! Vorlon hates Reagan too, cool! Then I read it again and I picked up the sarcasm.

Very clever

[True Democrat]

I watching CBC on CSPAN, and they mentioned that in 1993, the Conservative Party was reduced to two seats.  I looked it up on Wikipedia, and I saw the election, but still two seats.  TWO SEATS!!!  Maybe I'm just a simplistic American, but can someone explain this to me?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I watching CBC on CSPAN, and they mentioned that in 1993, the Conservative Party was reduced to two seats.  I looked it up on Wikipedia, and I saw the election, but still two seats.  TWO SEATS!!!  Maybe I'm just a simplistic American, but can someone explain this to me?

The right wing fractured in two in 1993 and it only rejoined for the 2004 election.

[Gabu]

I watching CBC on CSPAN, and they mentioned that in 1993, the Conservative Party was reduced to two seats.  I looked it up on Wikipedia, and I saw the election, but still two seats.  TWO SEATS!!!  Maybe I'm just a simplistic American, but can someone explain this to me?

The Reform Party under Preston Manning basically sucked off all of the PC's support.  It wasn't that the right wing of Canada got only two seats, it was just the PC (to whom Brian Mulroney did a rather large disservice).

[© tweed]

Liberals fighting hard and should get 100 seats.  ElectionPrediction looks smart.

[True Democrat]

I watching CBC on CSPAN, and they mentioned that in 1993, the Conservative Party was reduced to two seats.  I looked it up on Wikipedia, and I saw the election, but still two seats.  TWO SEATS!!!  Maybe I'm just a simplistic American, but can someone explain this to me?

The Reform Party under Preston Manning basically sucked off all of the PC's support.  It wasn't that the right wing of Canada got only two seats, it was just the PC (to whom Brian Mulroney did a rather large disservice).

Thanks.  If the whole Right only got two seats that would have been really amazing.  I have another question too, on CBC, they keep mentioning Senators, what is this title?

[Gabu]

I watching CBC on CSPAN, and they mentioned that in 1993, the Conservative Party was reduced to two seats.  I looked it up on Wikipedia, and I saw the election, but still two seats.  TWO SEATS!!!  Maybe I'm just a simplistic American, but can someone explain this to me?

The Reform Party under Preston Manning basically sucked off all of the PC's support.  It wasn't that the right wing of Canada got only two seats, it was just the PC (to whom Brian Mulroney did a rather large disservice).

Thanks.  If the whole Right only got two seats that would have been really amazing.  I have another question too, on CBC, they keep mentioning Senators, what is this title?

Canada has senators just like America, but they're appointed by the federal government (kind of like judges), not elected.  Stephen Harper wants to make them elected (probably because they currently strongly favor the Liberals, but never mind that).

[True Democrat]

I watching CBC on CSPAN, and they mentioned that in 1993, the Conservative Party was reduced to two seats.  I looked it up on Wikipedia, and I saw the election, but still two seats.  TWO SEATS!!!  Maybe I'm just a simplistic American, but can someone explain this to me?

The Reform Party under Preston Manning basically sucked off all of the PC's support.  It wasn't that the right wing of Canada got only two seats, it was just the PC (to whom Brian Mulroney did a rather large disservice).

Thanks.  If the whole Right only got two seats that would have been really amazing.  I have another question too, on CBC, they keep mentioning Senators, what is this title?

Canada has senators just like America, but they're appointed by the federal government (kind of like judges), not elected.  Stephen Harper wants to make them elected (probably because they currently strongly favor the Liberals, but never mind that).

Ok, do they have any real power, or are they like the House of Lords?

[Gabu]

I watching CBC on CSPAN, and they mentioned that in 1993, the Conservative Party was reduced to two seats.  I looked it up on Wikipedia, and I saw the election, but still two seats.  TWO SEATS!!!  Maybe I'm just a simplistic American, but can someone explain this to me?

The Reform Party under Preston Manning basically sucked off all of the PC's support.  It wasn't that the right wing of Canada got only two seats, it was just the PC (to whom Brian Mulroney did a rather large disservice).

Thanks.  If the whole Right only got two seats that would have been really amazing.  I have another question too, on CBC, they keep mentioning Senators, what is this title?

Canada has senators just like America, but they're appointed by the federal government (kind of like judges), not elected.  Stephen Harper wants to make them elected (probably because they currently strongly favor the Liberals, but never mind that).

Ok, do they have any real power, or are they like the House of Lords?

I believe that bills need to go through the Senate, but another Canadian poster may want to confirm that; I'm not actually well-versed in how the Senate goes about its business.

It's largely regarded as "the place where politicians go to die", however.  I wouldn't mind making it elected.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Based upon the leading canidates, there are the following possibilities for a majority government (155 needed):

Cons-Lib 224
Cons-BlocQ 173
Lib-BlocQ-NDP 184
Lib-BlockQ-Ind 155

Some possible minority governments:
Lib-BlockQ or Cons-NDP-Ind are both 154
Cons-NDP 153
Lib-NDP 134
Cons 123

[Gabu]

Lib-BlockQ

That's quite possibly the most unholy alliance I've ever seen.

[Jake]

The Canadian Senate is pretty much what makes Canada a poor example of a democracy.