Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[minionofmidas]

Bloc Acadien. Learn French.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bloc Acadien.

Bah... damn pedant ...

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I did. Years ago. I was never any good at writing it though...

[minionofmidas]

Bloc Acadien.

Bah... damn pedant ...

Give me Pedantery or give me Death!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New SC poll...

Con 42, Lib 24, NDP 17, BQ 12

[ATFFL]

New SC poll...

Con 42, Lib 24, NDP 17, BQ 12

Oh my.  This could be quite bloody.

As always though, these are just polls with a margin of error and a possible systemic bias.  It could be that there are a lot of people who will vote Liberal and are hiding it right now.

I can't check right now, but do these members put the Bloc in as the official opposition?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New SC poll...

Con 42, Lib 24, NDP 17, BQ 12

Oh my.  This could be quite bloody.

As always though, these are just polls with a margin of error and a possible systemic bias.  It could be that there are a lot of people who will vote Liberal and are hiding it right now.

Confusingly SES and EKOS are show mild (very mild actually; SES pretty much shows a case of flatlining and that's it) Liberal recoveries. All changes are within the MoE (including this poll) IIRC.

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You could say that. The Liberals would be (in theory and with uniform national swing) but two seats off coming fourth... o/c with the Tories not increasing *much* out West such a result would probably see them very clearly in fourth place.

[useful idiot]

Why is there such a large Tory presence in Quebec City? From what I hear they are more "C"onservative than large parts of rural Quebec. Wouldn't you think it would be more left wing than Montreal?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why is there such a large Tory presence in Quebec City? From what I hear they are more "C"onservative than large parts of rural Quebec. Wouldn't you think it would be more left wing than Montreal?

The area is very white collar and quite rich by Quebec standards IIRC. Also has a lot of soft-nationalists as opposed to the polarised setup in Montreal (ie; ultra-Federalists in western Montreal, ultra-Seperatists on the north shore etc...).

[Gabu]

Regardless of the slight inaccuracy regarding the position of Layton and Duceppe (at least in terms of projected number of seats), I feel absolutely compelled to post this here for comic relief.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regardless of the slight inaccuracy regarding the position of Layton and Duceppe (at least in terms of projected number of seats), I feel absolutely compelled to post this here for comic relief.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Regardless of the slight inaccuracy regarding the position of Layton and Duceppe (at least in terms of projected number of seats), I feel absolutely compelled to post this here for comic relief.

For a while there, it looked like the major inaccuacy would be the positions of Layton and Martin, and who knows, it could still be.

[Cubby]

What is a dipper?

Poor Paul Martin  

I wonder if people in the UK in 1979 were like this, so mad at the incumbents but oblivious to the horrible leader they were about to elect.

Harper and Merkel are going to be Bush's you-know-whats even more than Blair, ugh (and Blair at least is still left wing, by American standards).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What is a dipper?

nDPer

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Not at all. 1979 was nothing like how you seem to think that it was; had the election been held in '78 (as it nearly was) or later on in '79 (as Callaghan had intended) then it is extremely likely that Labour would have won. The Tory win was due to the Winter of Discontent (a wave of public sector strikes) which resulted in the collapsed Liberal vote overwhelmingly flowing to them.
Callaghan was always personally popular (had he not quit as Labour leader following the insanity of the 1980 Conference then he'd have likely beaten Thatcher in '83 or '84) and the incumbent government certainly wasn't hated by most people.
Only U.K election that this seems to resemble in any way is 1997; and even then only a little bit (ie; the backdrop of gross-corruption-in-a-long-ruling-party).

===

New Ekos poll...

Con 37.4%, Lib 27.3%, NDP 20.8%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very interesting poll from B.C... more useful than any regional breakdown methinks...

http://www.mustelgroup.com/pr/20060119.htm

[minionofmidas]

Booh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another riding poll (add usual warnings of the dire records of these etc)... this time for Goodale's seat; Wascana (the smarter parts of Regina and the usual load of rural areas thrown in as well for no good reason)...

Goodale: 44%
Tory: 38%
Dipper: 14%

In other Saskatchewan news, huge increases in the number of people voting in advance polls have been reported in Regina-Qu'Appelle and Palliser

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, look at the SES polls. They used to be an anamoly with low %'s for the NDP, now look at the results. 19%?

[Gabu]

Very interesting poll from B.C... more useful than any regional breakdown methinks...

http://www.mustelgroup.com/pr/20060119.htm

I liked the part where 4% of respondents said that NDP has the best chance of winning.

[Hatman 🍁]

Very interesting poll from B.C... more useful than any regional breakdown methinks...

http://www.mustelgroup.com/pr/20060119.htm

I liked the part where 4% of respondents said that NDP has the best chance of winning.

I got someone who said the NDP was going to win in a survey this evening. She probably misunderstood the question though, thinking her riding. Probably the same goes for that 4%

Anyways, I shall say this now, I cannot by law comment on election results until all the polls have closed. (f**k you Gabu ) Plus, I probably won't be around as I will be scruiteneering.

[Gabu]

Anyways, I shall say this now, I cannot by law comment on election results until all the polls have closed. (f**k you Gabu )

I'M HAULING YOU INTO THE BIG HOUSE MISTER

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyways, I shall say this now, I cannot by law comment on election results until all the polls have closed. (f**k you Gabu )

I'M HAULING YOU INTO THE BIG HOUSE MISTER

I should clarify, I meant on election night.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls holding steady-ish right now (give or take a few MoE). So here are some interesting regional developments...

*Ontario numbers are all over place; leads (of differing sizes) for both Cons and Libs reported. Liberals holding up well in Toronto, still doing badly nearly everywhere else apparently. NDP seem to have picked up some steam over the past few days, uncertain how much.

*Quebec numbers still look grim for the Libs. Looks like the Bloc won't crack 50%. Good Tory numbers are clearly no blip.

*The Tories appear to have taken a lead in the Atlantic; uncertain by how much. NDP seem to be doing fairly well. Atlantic polls have huge, huge MoE's so...

*Tories continue to lead out West, although now in the low 40's rather than the high 40's. NDP numbers have taken a definate upswing over the past week or so (one of the few (ie; along with the Tories in Quebec) changes in regional numbers that seem to be more than statistical blippery). Liberals still seem to be dropping out there.

[The Vorlon]

Posted Saturday, Jan 21

Torry vote pretty steady at 38ish %

Huge spike in undecided, but undecided are all soft Grits looking at NDP, and soft NDP looking at Grits.

It "looks" like Mr. Layton may be a VERY happy man Monday - can you say 40 seats...?

Best Guess....

NewfoundLand

4 Grits
2 Tories
1 too close to call, I'll bet Tory...

Newfoundland Grits 4 - Tories 3

PEI

Normally 4-0 Liberal (kinda like DC in the US going Democratic)
Tories think they have a shot in Charlottetown, I am not to sure..

I'll stay Grits 4 - Tories 0

Nova Scotia

3 safe Grit, 3 safe Tory, 2 safe Dippers

3 on the bubble (all currently Grit seats)

I'l go 1 / 1 / 1 on these three

4 Grits, 4 Tories, 3 Dippers

New Brunswick

2 safe Tories, 2 safe Grits, one safe Dipper.

5 on the bubble, (all liberal currently)

I'll go 3 / 2 Tory on these, 5 Tories, 4 Grits, 1 Dipper

Quebec

Hmmmm..

I get about 52 safe Bloq, 8 safe Grits (stunning isn't it) and 3 pretty secure Tory seats

About a dozen on the bubble, I'll go 5 bloq, 4 grit and 3 tory

57 Bloq, 12 Grits, 6 Tory

Ontario

I count 31 safe Liberals, 26 pretty certain Tory, and 11 secure Dipper seats.

38 very close seats - wow

I'll give the Tories 16 of these, 12 grits, and 10 Dippers.

43 Grits, 42 Tories, 21 Dippers...

Talk to me in an hour... I'll likely change my mind again...

Manatoba

7 safe Tories, 2 safe liberals, 3 safe Dippers.

To very close, I'll go one Tory and 1 dipper

8 tories, 2 Grits, 4 dippers.

Saskatchewan

12 Tories, 1 Grit, 1 dipper

Alberta

26 Tories, 1 Grit, 1 Dipper

BC

14 safe Tories
4 safe dippers
3 safe grits

15 too close to call - wow!

Grits are in utter freefall - how low is the bottom?

I'll give 8 to the Tories, 6 to the Dippers, and 1 Grit

Nets out to 22 Tories, 10 Dippers, 4 Grits.

Territories

3 Grits

National Totals

Grits 85
Tories 128
Bloq 57
Dippers 38

(somebody check my math, ok...)

[Harry Hayfield]

My forecast is for a Con majority of 10, increased Bloc and NDP representation and the first Green MP in York Centre

[Tory]

Alright, here is my official prediction:

Conservative Party of Canada(winner): 156
Liberal Party of Canada: 48
Bloc Quebecois(official opposition): 64
New Democratic Party of Canada: 39

It's being kind to the Conservatives, they're poll numbers aren't pointing towards a majority.