Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Kevinstat]

11 points?

how does this translate seat wise? is there a natural liberal advantage in the way ridings are drawn which will offset this a bit?

Actually, the tories have a natural advantage

Well, the party that has a disadvantage in terms of winning a plurality of seats (meaning the other major party would likely win a plurality if the "popular vote" nationwide was a near-dead heat) could also be the one that was more insulated against a complete rout, since the party's disadvantage in a very close election could be that it's voters are concentrated in a sizable number of constituencies but not enough to have a good shot at winning a plurality of seats if the nationwide vote is nearly even and traditional models of support hold reasonably well.  There may be no traditional model of support in Canada, but what I'm saying is the same sort of factors that could advantage one party in the race for a plurality could make it so that party would have to do better in regards to the other major party and the other parties than the other party would to win, say, a majority government, or at least there would likely have to be a point at which that party would likely have less of an edge seat-wise with the same margin vote-wise, even if that point was above the point at which that party would likely win a majority or do well enough to have the option of a lengthy minority government without having to walk on egg shells.

I'm curious as to whether those in the know think an 11-point margin for the tories with the percentages for the NDP and the Bloc what they are in that Ipsos poll would likely result in a larger plurality (and a majority is still a plurality, in the inclusive and probably the dictionary sense) for the Conservatives than the Liberals would win with the same margin and the same percentages for the other two parties, or a lesser one.

[Hatman 🍁]

11 points?

how does this translate seat wise? is there a natural liberal advantage in the way ridings are drawn which will offset this a bit?

Actually, the tories have a natural advantage

Well, the party that has a disadvantage in terms of winning a plurality of seats (meaning the other major party would likely win a plurality if the "popular vote" nationwide was a near-dead heat) could also be the one that was more insulated against a complete rout, since the party's disadvantage in a very close election could be that it's voters are concentrated in a sizable number of constituencies but not enough to have a good shot at winning a plurality of seats if the nationwide vote is nearly even and traditional models of support hold reasonably well.  There may be no traditional model of support in Canada, but what I'm saying is the same sort of factors that could advantage one party in the race for a plurality could make it so that party would have to do better in regards to the other major party and the other parties than the other party would to win, say, a majority government, or at least there would likely have to be a point at which that party would likely have less of an edge seat-wise with the same margin vote-wise, even if that point was above the point at which that party would likely win a majority or do well enough to have the option of a lengthy minority government without having to walk on egg shells.

I'm curious as to whether those in the know think an 11-point margin for the tories with the percentages for the NDP and the Bloc what they are in that Ipsos poll would likely result in a larger plurality (and a majority is still a plurality, in the inclusive and probably the dictionary sense) for the Conservatives than the Liberals would win with the same margin and the same percentages for the other two parties, or a lesser one.

Well I dont know for sure, but if you plug the numbers into Hill and Knowlton you get:

Cons: 154
BQ: 67
Lib: 46
NDP: 40

Flip the tories and the Liberal's numbers you get...

Lib: 140
Cons: 69
BQ: 60
NDP: 38

[bullmoose88]

Any more thoughts on the debate...the cbc clip, in my opinion, didn't show Martin being that impressive

[Filuwaúrdjan]

General consensus seems to be that Martin failed to win the debate. Not good for him; he's about to go extremely negative methinks.

And here's the EKOS poll they held back 'til after the debates...

Con 39.1%, Lib 26.8%, NDP 16.2%, BQ 12.6%, Grn 4.6%

Tories ahead in Ontario (by a lot) and in second place in Quebec...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A considerable rethink in light of the apparent Liberal collapse over the past week:

Ridings that are safe to be held by the party elected there in 2004 I'll be omitting to save space. Also, all safe seat gains are from the Libs.

strong = reasonably certain, but a combination of local and national factors could cause it to fall to another party
prob = I think it'll go this way, but either local or national factors could cause it to change by themselves
slight =  A toss-up that won't surprise me at all if it goes the other way

Seats that represent a change will get a color marking as well

Newfoundland and Labrador
Lib 4 (-1) Con 3 (+1) NDP 0 (+0)
Bonavista—Exploits safe Con gain
Labrador prob Lib hold over Con
Random—Burin—St. George's slight Lib hold over NDP

(Slight edits in response to Earl's post below.)

Prince Edward Island
Lib 4 (-0) Con 0 (+0)
Charlottetown strong Lib hold over Con
Malpeque prob Lib hold over Con

Nova Scotia
Con 5 (+1) Lib 3 (-2) NDP 3 (+1)
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour prob NDP gain from Lib
Kings—Hants prob Lib hold over Con
West Nova prob Con gain from Lib

New Brunswick
Con 5 (+3) Lib 4 (-3) NDP 1
Fredericton prob Con gain from Lib
Miramichi prob Lib hold over Con
Saint John safe Con gain
Tobique—Mactaquac strong Con gain from Lib

Quebec
BQ 63 (+9) Lib 11 (-10) Con 1 (+1)
Ahuntsic safe BQ gain
Beauce safe BQ gain
Bourassa prob Lib hold over BQ
Brome—Missisquoi safe BQ gain
Brossard—La Prairie slight BQ gain from Lib
Gatineau safe BQ gain
Honoré-Mercier slight BQ gain from Lib
Hull—Aylmer slight Lib hold over BQ
Jeanne-Le Ber safe BQ gain
Laval—Les Îles slight Lib hold over BQ
Louis-Saint-Laurent  prob BQ hold over Con
Outremont prob BQ gain from Lib
Papineau safe BQ gain
Pontiac slight Con gain over BQ (was held by Lib)

The changes reflect just the national numbers, once I get a chance to look at Quebec specific numbers they'll likely change some more.

Ontario
Con 60 (+36) Lib 28 (-43) NDP 14 (+7)
Ajax—Pickering slight Con gain from Lib
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing prob NDP gain from Lib
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale safe Con gain
Barrie safe Con gain
Bramalea—Gore—Malton slight Lib hold over Con
Brampton West safe Con gain
Brant safe Con gain
Burlington safe Con gain
Chatham-Kent—Essex safe Con gain
Davenport prob Lib hold over NDP
Etobicoke—Lakeshore slight Con gain from Lib
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell prob Con gain from Lib
Guelph strong Lib hold over Con
Halton prob Con gain from Lib
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek safe NDP gain
Hamilton Mountain prob Con gain from Lib
Huron—Bruce slight Con gain from Lib
Kenora slight Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib)
Kitchener Centre slight Lib hold over Con
Kitchener—Conestoga safe Con gain
London—Fanshawe prob Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib}
London North Centre prob Con gain from Lib
London West strong Con gain from Lib
Middlesex—Kent—Lambton safe Con gain
Mississauga South prob Con gain from Lib
Mississauga—Streetsville slight Con gain from Lib
Newmarket—Aurora safe Con regain from Belinda
Nickel Belt slight NDP gain from Lib
Nipissing—Timiskaming safe Con gain
Northumberland—Quinte West safe Con gain
Oak Ridges—Markham prob Con gain from Lib
Oakville strong Con gain from Lib
Oshawa strong Con hold over NDP
Ottawa—Orléans safe Con gain from Lib
Ottawa South prob Con gain from Lib
Ottawa West—Nepean safe Con gain from Lib
Parkdale—High Park prob NDP gain from Lib
Parry Sound—Muskoka prob Con gain from Lib
Peterborough prob Con gain from Lib
St. Catharines safe Con gain
Sarnia—Lambton prob Con gain from Lib
Simcoe North safe Con gain
prob NDP gain from Lib
Thornhill slight Con gain from Lib
Thunder Bay—Rainy River prob Con gain over NDP  (was held by Lib)
Thunder Bay—Superior North prob NDP gain from Lib
Trinity—Spadina safe NDP gain
Whitby—Oshawa strong Con gain from Lib
Welland prob Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib)

Manitoba
Con 9 (+2) NDP 3(-1) Lib 1(-2) Ind 1(+1)
Churchill slight Ind gain over Lib from NDP
Saint Boniface slight Con gain from Lib
Winnipeg South prob Con gain from Lib
Winnipeg South Centre prob Lib hold over Con

Saskatchewan
Con 13 Lib 1

Alberta
Con 28 (+2) Lib 0 (-2)
Edmonton—Beaumont safe Con gain
Edmonton Centre strong Con gain

British Columbia
Con 22 (+2) NDP 10 (+5) Lib 2 (-6) Ind 0 (-1)
Burnaby—Douglas strong NDP hold over Con
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca prob NDP gain from Lib
New Westminster—Coquitlam strong Con hold over NDP
North Vancouver safe Con gain
Richmond prob Con gain from Lib
Skeena—Bulkley Valley prob NDP hold over Con
Southern Interior prob NDP gain from Con
Surrey North strong Con gain over NDP from Ind
Vancouver Centre prob NDP gain from Lib
Vancouver Island North prob Con hold over NDP
Vancouver Kingsway safe NDP gain
Vancouver South slight Lib hold over Con
Victoria strong NDP gain from Lib

(Southern Interior editted in response to the smuggling charge)

Territories
Lib 2 (-1) NDP 1 (+1)
Western Arctic strong NDP gain from Lib
Canada
Con 147 (+48)
Lib 65 (-70)
BQ 63 (+9)
NDP 32 (+13)
Ind 1 (-0)

This does not look good for Martin.  When looking at these races I actually handicapped the Tories slightly compared to their latest poll numbers. It's quite conceivable that Canada could have a Conservative majority with the BQ as the official opposition unless the Grits and the Dippers unite to from a coalition opposition.

[ATFFL]

Vorlon,

Will you be throwing in some more of your professional opinions?

[TB]

One of my dad's best friends(NDP-Montreal) is running for parliament.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of my dad's best friends(NDP-Montreal) is running for parliament.

Which riding?

[TB]

Which riding?

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine

Hey, Al do you have any data on the riding? I would like to know more about his chances of getting elected.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine

Hey, Al do you have any data on the riding? I would like to know more about his chances of getting elected.

2004 result: Lib 53%, BQ 22%, Con 10%, NDP 7%, Grn 5%. NDP % across Quebec was about 4%.

Oh and have a look at this:

http://www.electionprediction.org/2005_fed/riding/24045-notre-dame-de-grace-lachine.htm

And this as well:

http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/riding/080/

[TB]

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine

Hey, Al do you have any data on the riding? I would like to know more about his chances of getting elected.

2004 result: Lib 53%, BQ 22%, Con 10%, NDP 7%, Grn 5%. NDP % across Quebec was about 4%.

Oh and have a look at this:

http://www.electionprediction.org/2005_fed/riding/24045-notre-dame-de-grace-lachine.htm

And this as well:

http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/riding/080/

Thanks Al. We can always count on you;)

[Hatman 🍁]

Ernest, there is no way in hell Random—Burin—St. George's is going NDP. They only did well last time because of the candidate (Des McGrath) who will not be running this time.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ernest, there is no way in hell Random—Burin—St. George's is going NDP. They only did well last time because of the candidate (Des McGrath) who will not be running this time.

Hard to tell from a distance, but I will note that the last two times the NDP held a seat in Newfoundland and Labrador, it was during Conservative governments which is what this looks to be shaping up to be. The riding was redrawn for 2004, and the neighboring ridings saw declines in NDP support from what the projected redistributed 2000 vote would indicate, so I don't think the 2004 result can be attributed solely to Des McGrath.  Still, I'll lower the NDP chances there so that Random—Burin—St. George's is a Lib slight hold instead of a NDP slight gain.  I've also taken a closer look at Labrador and I'm going to change that from safe Lib hold to prob Lib hold over Con now that I've looked at more than the 2000 results there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ernest, there is no way in hell Random—Burin—St. George's is going NDP. They only did well last time because of the candidate (Des McGrath) who will not be running this time.

Hard to tell from a distance, but I will note that the last two times the NDP held a seat in Newfoundland and Labrador, it was during Conservative governments which is what this looks to be shaping up to be. The riding was redrawn for 2004, and the neighboring ridings saw declines in NDP support from what the projected redistributed 2000 vote would indicate, so I don't think the 2004 result can be attributed solely to Des McGrath.  Still, I'll lower the NDP chances there so that Random—Burin—St. George's is a Lib slight hold instead of a NDP slight gain.  I've also taken a closer look at Labrador and I'm going to change that from safe Lib hold to prob Lib hold over Con now that I've looked at more than the 2000 results there.

Labrador is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country.

[bullmoose88]

It seems that, given current polling, the Tories will likely form a minority government...how possible is it, if at all, that they could take a narrow majority...

what sort of polling numbers give that result?

[Gabu]

It seems that, given current polling, the Tories will likely form a minority government...how possible is it, if at all, that they could take a narrow majority...

what sort of polling numbers give that result?

Mulroney's PCs got 43% of the vote in 1988 when they got 160-ish seats.  I'd say that Harper is right on the cusp of where he'd need to be to get a majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently the Liberals have had to pull some negative ads

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New poll from SC (+/- refer to previous poll)

Con 38% (+1), Lib 28% (-1), NDP 16% (+1), BQ 12% (-1)

Trendlines continue to be devastating for the Liberals; since the resumption of the campaign after Christmas, they've been dropping like a stone. In Quebec the Liberals are in third place; and outside the Montreal metro it's an extremely distant third place (with the Tories on around 30%).

[useful idiot]

New poll from SC (+/- refer to previous poll)

Con 38% (+1), Lib 28% (-1), NDP 16% (+1), BQ 12% (-1)

Trendlines continue to be devastating for the Liberals; since the resumption of the campaign after Christmas, they've been dropping like a stone. In Quebec the Liberals are in third place; and outside the Montreal metro it's an extremely distant third place (with the Tories on around 30%).

Do you know what the numbers are in Quebec City?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't have any breakdown numbers but... if the Tories really *are* polling around 30% outside the Montreal metro, then there's a possibility they might actually be *leading* around Quebec City... apparently they're also doing very well in the Eastern Townships (Charest more-or-less coming out for Harper has seen to that methinks).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Labrador is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country.

Considering that even tho I projecting the Grits to lose over half their seats and Labrador isn't one of their expected losses, I don't totally disagree with you, but between the 2005 by-election result there and the fact that at the provincial level, the NDP hold Labrador West, I can't see it as being totally safe for the Libs.  The Libs should keep Labrador, but it's not a seat I see as being one of their safest.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Grits down by 9 in a new SES track. Trail Tories everywhere but the Atlantic; where their lead is now down to single digits.

[Hatman 🍁]

Labrador is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country.

Considering that even tho I projecting the Grits to lose over half their seats and Labrador isn't one of their expected losses, I don't totally disagree with you, but between the 2005 by-election result there and the fact that at the provincial level, the NDP hold Labrador West, I can't see it as being totally safe for the Libs.  The Libs should keep Labrador, but it's not a seat I see as being one of their safest.

By-elections cause funny results. The tories campaigned hard there. It's kind of like that CD in Ohio that the Democrats almost won in the special election.

It seems that, given current polling, the Tories will likely form a minority government...how possible is it, if at all, that they could take a narrow majority...

what sort of polling numbers give that result?

I'm thinking High 30's. 38% maybe.

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS is going to do polls every day now. I did one tonight, and the callers I called all voted Liberal last election, but all will switch their votes. They were all in Ontario too. 3 plan on voting tory and one NDP. My predicitions for tommorows paper?

Conservative: 38%
Liberal: 27%
NDP: 17%

[useful idiot]

Is there a site where we can plug in percentages and get seat totals?(ala electoralcalculus.co.uk)