Is Carson done? - Predict his RCP avg by CNN Debate in December

[Likely Voter]

This week Ben Carson hit his alltime high on the RCP average and went into the lead with 24.8%. But it has also been a very bad week for him in the media with questions about his past, his beliefs and his knowledge. It is possible that he is now experiencing what political scientists call the "discovery, scrutiny, and decline" pattern (aka flavor of the month). Or maybe, like Trump before him, he can handle the scrutiny and continue the thrive.

The next GOP debate is in a few days and the one after that is on December 15th (on CNN). Predict where Dr. Carson will be on the RCP average by that date. Or will he drop out?

For context his RCP average on dates of previous debates
FOX - Aug 6: 5.8%
CNN - Sept 16: 20.0%
CNBC - Oct 28: 22.0%

[Mehmentum]

20%.  I think Carson will revert back to where he was prior to his most recent surge.  It will look a lot like the 2nd debate did to Trump.  It cut back his support and killed his momentum, but he'll be able to recover.

Distrust of the media is at an all time high in the Republican electorate, if Carson can make it look like he's the target of a 'liberal smear campaign', they'll buy it.

[Crumpets]

I'm going to be bold and say he's dropped out.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

I'm going to be bold and say he's dropped out.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

If he's in the race and polling over 4%, Republican voters are literally insane.

[Orser67]

I think a lot of his followers will jump ship, but he'll still retain about 5-10% of voters who are really committed/don't care what the media says.

[Extrabase500]

Everytime the media says someone is done the opposite happens. Look at how many times they said the Donald was done.

[Maxwell]

I say up. Waaaaay up.

[Extrabase500]

I say up. Waaaaay up.

IDK I still think he's gona pull a herman cain watch.

[The Other Castro]

I think he'll stay around his current range, maybe around the low/mid 20s.

[Maxwell]

I say up. Waaaaay up.

IDK I still think he's gona pull a herman cain watch.

Either one of these. Politico just handed Ben Carson the "media is a bully" sympathy card.

[Extrabase500]

I say up. Waaaaay up.

IDK I still think he's gona pull a herman cain watch.

Either one of these. Politico just handed Ben Carson the "media is a bully" sympathy card.

Ya but what do you think is gona cause him to dropout? Cause no way will Carson stay in for the Iowa primary. I think he'll be around the same % but will drop out do to "personal problems" or something.

[Figueira]

It sounds really racist to compare Carson to Cain, but I am seeing some parallels. I'd say he'll have dropped out.

[Extrabase500]

It sounds really racist to compare Carson to Cain, but I am seeing some parallels. I'd say he'll have dropped out.

Well their different candidates. Cain ran on 9-9-9, was pro-establishment and more of a fiscal conservative platform, Carson seems to be running on anti-establishment/social conservative platform.

[/]

I think he's probably just another monthly flavor (unlike Trump, who actually seems much more able to sustain his support for the long-term).

[Nyvin]

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

0% (dropped out)

Stick a fork in Benny boy, he's done.

[Extrabase500]

I think he's probably just another monthly flavor (unlike Trump, who actually seems much more able to sustain his support for the long-term).

Agreed or like Fiorina who was a 10minute flavor.

[Figueira]

It sounds really racist to compare Carson to Cain, but I am seeing some parallels. I'd say he'll have dropped out.

Well their different candidates. Cain ran on 9-9-9, was pro-establishment and more of a fiscal conservative platform, Carson seems to be running on anti-establishment/social conservative platform.

I'm not saying they're the same by any means, but they both seem to have a similar pattern here (starting to lead in the polls in late October/early November, and then having a scandal break out).

[wolfsblood07]

Why do some people think Carson is done?  The West Point story seems to be much ado about nothing. 

[Volrath50]

I'm not really expecting a huge hit. After seeing how many times the media has declared Donald Trump's campaign dead, only to have little to no effect in the polls, my default assumption is that Carson is also protected by the same sort of bubble.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

5-10 pts, and Trump will get a boost out of it. Dr Carson wont be nominee.

[The Other Castro]

Honestly, with how the race has shaped up so far, this could actually end up strengthening his support.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Nah, Trump will be beneficiary of Dr Carson's downwall and have a clear path now to nomination, like Hilary does with Iowa, NH & SC.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

Motherjones has a laundry list of Carson's repeated disconnects between what actually happened and the story he tells:
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/11/ben-carson-seems-have-serious-personal-honesty-problem