LA: Triumph (R): Vitter gaining, within 10% (user search)
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  LA: Triumph (R): Vitter gaining, within 10% (search mode)
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Author Topic: LA: Triumph (R): Vitter gaining, within 10%  (Read 4444 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« on: November 06, 2015, 01:41:14 PM »

Article.

Edwards (D) - 49%
Vitter (R) - 41%
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2015, 01:55:00 PM »

Also, FWIW, early voting begins tomorrow. Hopefully if Vitter makes up ground, Edwards can at least lock in as much of his current lead as possible in the early vote.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2015, 02:47:17 PM »


This is a partisan poll, so I don't think it should have been entered Sad
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2015, 09:41:38 PM »

There is a history of inaccurate polling in Kentucky. Not so in Louisiana. See, 2014.

Yep, Landrieu ran ahead of the polls, too.

Triumph is a Republican pollster [...] so there will be people pooh-poohing these results, but we tend to think they’re reflective of what’s really going on with the race at this point, for three main reasons.

First, the sample. This poll has 1,818 likely voters as its sample. That’s a larger sample than the others with those outsize margins.
[...]
Second, the fundamentals of the race simply don’t support those outlandish deficits for Vitter.
[...]
Third, Kentucky. That’s a Southern state with a much more competitive Democrat Party than Louisiana has; the outgoing incumbent there is, after all, a Democrat. And Bevin was a far less proven Republican candidate than Vitter is; Vitter has never lost an election and won his last race by 19 points, while prior to Tuesday Bevin had never won a race other than the GOP primary he won earlier this year.

And yet Bevin won the race 53-44, with a libertarian third-party candidate pulling three percent mostly from Bevin.

https://thehayride.com/2015/11/vitter-gains-on-edwards-in-triumph-campaigns-poll/

Look, Edwards isn't going to win by 20 points, even though he's certainly favored for now. I still expect a relatively close race (no candidate will win by more than 5 or 6 points).

I'm not dismissing the poll's results, I'm just saying it shouldn't have been added to the database.

Thats the reason that I didn't enter this other partisan poll when I posted it.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2015, 05:53:40 PM »

^ Or even better, FL Gov. last year.
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