Are people really naive enough to believe that a Republican poll showing Vitter down by this much equals a victory for him? Get real.
A guy who takes SUSA polls seriously should be the last one calling other users naive. Also, this is basically the same discussion we had in this thread. How did that work out for you again?
If Triump shows Vitter down, things must be going very poorly for Diaper Dave in Louisiana.
This is a partisan poll, so I don't think it should have been entered 
Triumph is a Republican pollster [...] so there will be people pooh-poohing these results, but we tend to think they’re reflective of what’s really going on with the race at this point, for three main reasons.
First, the sample. This poll has 1,818 likely voters as its sample. That’s a larger sample than the others with those outsize margins.
[...]
Second, the fundamentals of the race simply don’t support those outlandish deficits for Vitter.
[...]
Third, Kentucky. That’s a Southern state with a much more competitive Democrat Party than Louisiana has; the outgoing incumbent there is, after all, a Democrat. And Bevin was a far less proven Republican candidate than Vitter is; Vitter has never lost an election and won his last race by 19 points, while prior to Tuesday Bevin had never won a race other than the GOP primary he won earlier this year.
And yet Bevin won the race 53-44, with a libertarian third-party candidate pulling three percent mostly from Bevin.
https://thehayride.com/2015/11/vitter-gains-on-edwards-in-triumph-campaigns-poll/
Look, Edwards isn't going to win by 20 points, even though he's certainly favored for now. I still expect a relatively close race (no candidate will win by more than 5 or 6 points).
There is a history of inaccurate polling in Kentucky. Not so in Louisiana. See, 2014.
