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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  LA: Triumph (R): Vitter gaining, within 10%
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Author Topic: LA: Triumph (R): Vitter gaining, within 10%  (Read 3124 times)
Miles
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« on: November 06, 2015, 01:41:14 pm »

Article.

Edwards (D) - 49%
Vitter (R) - 41%
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2015, 01:55:00 pm »

Also, FWIW, early voting begins tomorrow. Hopefully if Vitter makes up ground, Edwards can at least lock in as much of his current lead as possible in the early vote.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2015, 02:44:46 pm »

What this really means is that Diaper Man is ahead by 6%, since polls these days are 14 points off.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2015, 02:46:44 pm »

What this really means is that Diaper Man is ahead by 6%, since polls these days are 14 points off.

KY is not LA
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2015, 02:47:17 pm »


This is a partisan poll, so I don't think it should have been entered Sad
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2015, 02:48:50 pm »

Anyways, voting takes place on Saturday, meaning Edwards hss a chance to close out the race, of he gets to 50 percent,  which I hope.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2015, 02:50:08 pm »

What this really means is that Diaper Man is ahead by 6%, since polls these days are 14 points off.

tbh
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2015, 03:28:55 pm »

John Bel Conway Sad
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2015, 03:29:18 pm »


Why does it show Angelle as the Republican nominee?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2015, 03:36:08 pm »

What this really means is that Diaper Man is ahead by 6%, since polls these days are 14 points off.

KY is not LA

It is now.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2015, 04:58:52 pm »

If Triump shows Vitter down, things must be going very poorly for Diaper Dave in Louisiana.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2015, 05:06:26 pm »
« Edited: November 06, 2015, 05:45:38 pm by Invisible Obama »

Are people really naive enough to believe that a Republican poll showing Vitter down by this much equals a victory for him? Get real.
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2015, 08:00:03 pm »

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kansasdemocrat
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2015, 09:10:09 pm »

Are people really naive enough to believe that a Republican poll showing Vitter down by this much equals a victory for him? Get real.

A guy who takes SUSA polls seriously should be the last one calling other users naive. Also, this is basically the same discussion we had in this thread. How did that work out for you again?

If Triump shows Vitter down, things must be going very poorly for Diaper Dave in Louisiana.


This is a partisan poll, so I don't think it should have been entered Sad

Triumph is a Republican pollster [...] so there will be people pooh-poohing these results, but we tend to think theyíre reflective of whatís really going on with the race at this point, for three main reasons.

First, the sample. This poll has 1,818 likely voters as its sample. Thatís a larger sample than the others with those outsize margins.
[...]
Second, the fundamentals of the race simply donít support those outlandish deficits for Vitter.
[...]
Third, Kentucky. Thatís a Southern state with a much more competitive Democrat Party than Louisiana has; the outgoing incumbent there is, after all, a Democrat. And Bevin was a far less proven Republican candidate than Vitter is; Vitter has never lost an election and won his last race by 19 points, while prior to Tuesday Bevin had never won a race other than the GOP primary he won earlier this year.

And yet Bevin won the race 53-44, with a libertarian third-party candidate pulling three percent mostly from Bevin.

https://thehayride.com/2015/11/vitter-gains-on-edwards-in-triumph-campaigns-poll/

Look, Edwards isn't going to win by 20 points, even though he's certainly favored for now. I still expect a relatively close race (no candidate will win by more than 5 or 6 points).

There is a history of inaccurate polling in Kentucky. Not so in Louisiana. See, 2014.
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Flake
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2015, 09:22:48 pm »

I don't think we should add this poll to the database, since it is a Republican poll @TNvolunteer
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Miles
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2015, 09:41:38 pm »

There is a history of inaccurate polling in Kentucky. Not so in Louisiana. See, 2014.

Yep, Landrieu ran ahead of the polls, too.

Triumph is a Republican pollster [...] so there will be people pooh-poohing these results, but we tend to think theyíre reflective of whatís really going on with the race at this point, for three main reasons.

First, the sample. This poll has 1,818 likely voters as its sample. Thatís a larger sample than the others with those outsize margins.
[...]
Second, the fundamentals of the race simply donít support those outlandish deficits for Vitter.
[...]
Third, Kentucky. Thatís a Southern state with a much more competitive Democrat Party than Louisiana has; the outgoing incumbent there is, after all, a Democrat. And Bevin was a far less proven Republican candidate than Vitter is; Vitter has never lost an election and won his last race by 19 points, while prior to Tuesday Bevin had never won a race other than the GOP primary he won earlier this year.

And yet Bevin won the race 53-44, with a libertarian third-party candidate pulling three percent mostly from Bevin.

https://thehayride.com/2015/11/vitter-gains-on-edwards-in-triumph-campaigns-poll/

Look, Edwards isn't going to win by 20 points, even though he's certainly favored for now. I still expect a relatively close race (no candidate will win by more than 5 or 6 points).

I'm not dismissing the poll's results, I'm just saying it shouldn't have been added to the database.

Thats the reason that I didn't enter this other partisan poll when I posted it.
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Intell
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2015, 10:30:25 pm »

Likley R.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2015, 10:52:10 am »
« Edited: November 07, 2015, 10:53:50 am by 15 years ago, today, Al Gore lost New Hampshire »

If the Vox Populi poll hadn't been entered into the database (and I didnt enter it, btw!), KY would have been colored red on the map. Bevin won by 9 points in the end, though.

For the record: I also added the IL/WI/CO polls from Clarity Campaign Labs (D) to the database.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2015, 11:18:02 am »

With the KY results, I have become much more pessimistic about this race.

But Edwards should still win it ...
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2015, 05:53:40 pm »

^ Or even better, FL Gov. last year.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #20 on: November 11, 2015, 05:54:45 am »

There's a lot of people who assume that Kentucky and Louisiana are comparable politically.

Louisiana is a massive outlier in Southern politics.
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