Newfoundland election, Nov 2015

[RogueBeaver]

He fears a Grit juggernaut and wants "bleu a St. John's, rouge a Ottawa" to protect the province's interests from Trudeau. As for why, he's always been an opportunist.

[Joe Republic]

It's not like he had many nice things to say about the NDP before 2008 anyway.

[Krago]

I wonder if he beat David Emerson's record for the quickest party switch after an election?

[Boston Bread]

Not sure what thread would be most appropriate for this, but here are my predictions for the results of the next provincial election in each province (and Yukon):

Newfoundland: Liberal majority
Pretty obvious

Yukon: NDP majority
I'd consider this a tossup, but Yukon having one of the few positive NDP swings federally, along with sharp Conservative drops in native-heavy areas thanks to turnout gives me some hope. The Liberals seem to be out of contention in Territorial elections here.

Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan party majority
Safe as long as Wall is leader. They'd still win if Wall rethinks entering the CPC nomination race, although it would become competitive.

Manitoba: Liberal majority
I think the NDP will collapse, letting the Liberals win with Winnipeg. The election would look a lot like an Ontario election, with NDP in the north and a few urban ridings, most urban areas going Liberal and the rural south going PC. Despite the current PC lead, having a single big city greatly helps the centre-left in Manitoba as compared to Sask in terms of vote efficiency, not to mention Pallister is also quite unappealing himself.

BC: NDP majority
I think the polls underestimating the Liberals in 2013 were a one-off event. It didn't show up in 2009, and the CPC underperformed in 2015. Clark also has become more unpopular.

Nova Scotia: Liberal majority
The honeymoon still hasn't ended.

Quebec: Liberal majority
The PQ is still at historically weak levels, leaving the opposition and francophone vote divided among PQ, CAQ, and QS, which should let PLQ win again.

Ontario: Liberal minority
Hoping the #Wynner gets crushed, but Ontario rarely throws out a government if none of the opposition parties can prove themselves.

New Brunswick: PC majority
This is one that I think is too far to predict reliably, but Gallant's popularity seems to be low enough to sink him.

Prince Edward Island: Liberal majority
I'm just guessing here.

Alberta: NDP majority
Despite tough times, this poll suggests the NDP are recovering: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/albertans+give+budget+thumbs+down+according+poll/11486319/story.html?hootPostID=8151c5c9d174d8701e30691ed94a8b7a
But even with a better economy and an incumbent boost it won't be much better than a tossup.
However, if PC and Wildrose merge the merged party will be safe to win.

[136or142]

Manitoba: Liberal majority
I think the NDP will collapse, letting the Liberals win with Winnipeg. The election would look a lot like an Ontario election, with NDP in the north and a few urban ridings, most urban areas going Liberal and the rural south going PC. Despite the current PC lead, having a single big city greatly helps the centre-left in Manitoba as compared to Sask in terms of vote efficiency, not to mention Pallister is also quite unappealing himself.

If the Liberals win more than 5 or so seats in Manitoba I'd be shocked.

[DL]

Not sure what thread would be most appropriate for this, but here are my predictions for the results of the next provincial election in each province (and Yukon):

Manitoba: Liberal majority
I think the NDP will collapse, letting the Liberals win with Winnipeg. The election would look a lot like an Ontario election, with NDP in the north and a few urban ridings, most urban areas going Liberal and the rural south going PC. Despite the current PC lead, having a single big city greatly helps the centre-left in Manitoba as compared to Sask in terms of vote efficiency, not to mention Pallister is also quite unappealing himself.

I have to disagree with you on this one. The Manitoba Liberals (unlike their federal counterparts) are very much a fringe party. They only have one seat and have been crushed in recent provincial byelections - their leader is widely viewed to be very very weak and there have been constant attempted palace coups against her. The party - small as it is - is very divided and is very weak. I predict that once people refocus on provincial politics it will quickly go back to the old NDP vs PC polarization and the Manitoba Liberals will get no more than 2 or 3 seats. I think its the PCs turn to win after 16 years of the NDP in power  

[Boston Bread]

I'm expecting at least one election result that would have looked ridiculous before the campaign starts in the next 4 years, so I figured it might as well be Manitoba.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm expecting at least one election result that would have looked ridiculous before the campaign starts in the next 4 years, so I figured it might as well be Manitoba.

I'll do you one better. The Tories will win an increased majority in Newfoundland this month

[adma]

Though actually, I wouldn't put it above the Manitoba Liberals to earn more seats than the NDP--albeit by default...

[lilTommy]

I'm expecting at least one election result that would have looked ridiculous before the campaign starts in the next 4 years, so I figured it might as well be Manitoba.

The last Manitoba Poll had the Liberals at 24% and the NDP at 25% ... polling and all, I suppose its not that far off. But that's not knowing all the internals that were mentioned above. Also if the MNDP played smart they would reach out ASAP to get federal money and tie themselves to the new Liberals, get some big wins before the election in April, that might help. BUT the ManLibs could play the spoiler causing the NDP to loss seats in south Winnipeg for sure and that would allow the PCs to win... God even with Pallister leading... now that's upsetting alone

[Hatman 🍁]

I can see a 1988 scenario happening in Manitoba. It's almost the perfect conditions for it, except the party isn't ready. But that can change.

[RogueBeaver]

Dissolution expected on Thursday. Abacus will have a poll out later this week, though CRA obviously preferable.

[RogueBeaver]

Abacus: 66/19/15.

House was dissolved yesterday.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Just wondering, but what is the highest percentage a single political party has got in a Canada provincial election?

[RogueBeaver]

Danny Williams got 70% 8 years ago in NL, that's their record.  I think it might be here in Quebec, when the Liberals won 73% in 1919 and 74/81 seats.

[Boston Bread]

308 thinks there's no possibility of a liberal sweep, even if the Liberals reach their "max" of 83%: http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/11/four-quebec-by-elections-mid-term-test.html#comment-form

I doubt the NDP can win as many seats as their projection, though. 308 and similar models seem to consistently undershoot the vote efficiency of parties which are experiencing large positive swings, like the Alberta NDP or the federal Liberals.

[RogueBeaver]

Part of me wants to see a sweep. I remember being disappointed when Williams didn't 8 years ago.

[136or142]

Part of me wants to see a sweep. I remember being disappointed when Williams didn't 8 years ago.

I could be wrong, but based on the approval ratings the P.C government had a few months ago (although maybe those were just due to the effects of a new premier) as well as the, I expect, strong campaign that Earle McCurdy will run, as well as the fact that the Liberals look like they are going to run a frontrunner 'bubble' campaign, that it's going to be all downhill for the Liberals from here.

I would still expect them to get around 50% of the vote, so they should win handily, but not a landslide of epic proportions.

My early prediction would be
Liberal: 50%
P.C: 30%
NDP: 20%

[Citizen Hats]

Not sure what thread would be most appropriate for this, but here are my predictions for the results of the next provincial election in each province (and Yukon):

BC: NDP majority
I think the polls underestimating the Liberals in 2013 were a one-off event. It didn't show up in 2009, and the CPC underperformed in 2015. Clark also has become more unpopular.

The public usually hates the Liberals in between elections.  That being said, Clark does seem to have been going out of her way to burn bridges with the good and mostly pragmatic voters of Vancouver.  If the NDP figure out how to run a campaign, they might have something to work with this time around.   

[136or142]

The public usually hates the Liberals in between elections.  That being said, Clark does seem to have been going out of her way to burn bridges with the good and mostly pragmatic voters of Vancouver.  If the NDP figure out how to run a campaign, they might have something to work with this time around.   
[/quote]

Christy Clark doesn't want to burn any bridge, she wants to do Yoga on bridges.

[RogueBeaver]

Forum: 65/21/13.

[Boston Bread]

The public usually hates the Liberals in between elections.

That was true in 2013 but not 2009. The NDP didn't lead in a single poll in 2009 but still came within a few points of the Liberals: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2009#Opinion_polls

[Boston Bread]

MQO Research: 74-17-9
http://ntv.ca/liberal-support-moves-into-danny-williams-territory-ntvmqo-poll/

[Hatman 🍁]

A sweep is quite possible, of course. As usual, Eric Grenier doesn't know what he's talking about.

[DL]

MQO Research: 74-17-9
http://ntv.ca/liberal-support-moves-into-danny-williams-territory-ntvmqo-poll/

Although even when Danny Williams won elections with lopsided popular vote margins like that - he never managed to win every single seat.