2010 PA Census Redistricting Thread

[TeePee4Prez]

For PA posters, which CD do you think will be on the chopping block some 2010 to be merged with another?  This also depends on who's elected governor come 2010 after Rendell leaves. 

The GOP will likely do someting like merge Kanjorski(11) and Holden's(17) districts or Tim Murphy's(18) with the Dem occupying Jack Murtha's(12) district.  Due to heavy population loss in Philly, I could also see the oft possibility of Brady's (1) with Fattah's (2) OR PA 1 or 2 with PA 13.  I think it will likely be 11 and 17 because the GOP is maxed out otherwise.  If tampering with PA 1, 2, or 13 were to occur, PA 6,7, and 8 would be FAR more competitive for the Dems.

FIRE AWAY!!

[danwxman]

If Holden is still around you can gaurantee he will be the number one target. His new district is actually growing in population, but that won't matter.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If a Democrat is governor, they'll probably just let the courts draw a non-partisan districting.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm not just saying this but... PA 13. I think the PA GOP will give PA 17 some time. Holden can't hold it forever. No use in tampering with it.

[J. J.]

If a Democrat is governor, they'll probably just let the courts draw a non-partisan districting.

You have got to be joking.

[A18]

Um, since when do the governors decide how to draw districts? I thought it was up to the legislatures (well, with governor approval, like any other bill).

[J. J.]

A18, you are correct under PA law.

Jack Murtha will be 78 in 2010.  He will have been Representative for more than 36 years at the same time.  I would expect that the 12th will be swallowed up and the 9th (Bill Shuster-R) will move west.  I could see an eastward shift of most of SEPA districts, eventually taking off the far western counties of the 9th. 

You might see a Republican Greensburg to Altoona district.

[nini2287]

If 6, 7 and 8 are still held by Republicans, I bet they would try to throw some of the liberal areas of those districts into 1, 2 or 13.  As far as getting rid of a district, they might try to put Holden in another showdown (against Dent maybe?), but more likely they'll try to throw 2 of 3 between Brady, Fattah and Schwartz together.  If the Dems take control of the legislature (highly unlikely) I bet Murphy (if he's still around) and Hart will be thrown together (in this case-I bet Hart will run for Gov/Sen though)

[Jake]

I'm guessing they ax PA-6 if Gerlach loses in one of the next three elections. I'll show a map in a second.

[MHS2002]

Is it pretty much a given that Pennsylvania will lose a seat in the House once the 2010 census is completed?

[Keystone Phil]

Is it pretty much a given that Pennsylvania will lose a seat in the House once the 2010 census is completed?

Yeah, pretty much.

nini, the idea of a Dem controlled State Legislature here in PA is really foolish. 

[12th Doctor]

12 will be sectioned off, for sure.  The only reason they kept it around this time was to keep Murtha around.

[Jake]

This is something cobbled together based on guesses and estimations. Some time this summer I plan to do 2010 county level population estimates and draw a map from that. After finals of course



Districts 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 14, 15, and 16 pretty much stay the same with some additions.

District 1 gains some areas of Philly plus some of Delaware County.

Solid Democrat

District 2 gains NE Philly, parts of South Montco and gives up parts of the city to PA-1.

Solid Democrat

District 6 is a creation of the merger of parts of PA-6 and PA-13. The southern areas of PA-13 go to PA-2 and the southern areas of PA-6 are incorporated into this new district along with much of Montco.

Lean Democrat, Schwartz gets a bit weaker, but if she is still in the House by now, she's safe for awhile.

District 10 is very similar to the old PA-10 except that it gains western Luzerne County (strong GOP) and gives up the Scranton exurbs (moving Democrat). It also gains parts of Central PA and Columbia County (GOP strongholds).

Even more Solid GOP

District 11 is one of the most changed districts on the map.  It takes parts of Schuykill County, the urban strip running down from Hazleton plus it takes the areas north of Scranton. It gives up western Luzerne County, Columbia County, and parts of Carbon County.

PA-11 becomes strong Democrat

Districts 12 and 18 are combined together and split apart without that crazy line we have now. On second thought, PA-13 (the new one) looks like it doesn't have enough population. It can add Fayette if that's the case.

District 12 becomes lean GOP and District 18 becomes lean to strong GOP.

[Keystone Phil]

If I am ever in that PA 2, I will move. There is no way I will be in Chaka Fattah or whatever left wing extremist's district that is. That would be a total nightmare.

[Jake]

I assume you could be easily moved into PA-8.

[Keystone Phil]

I assume you could be easily moved into PA-8.

Right across the street though I'd prefer NE Philly to parts of Bucks.

[bullmoose88]

I assume you could be easily moved into PA-8.

Right across the street though I'd prefer NE Philly to parts of Bucks.

Which parts of Bucks?

[Keystone Phil]

I assume you could be easily moved into PA-8.

Right across the street though I'd prefer NE Philly to parts of Bucks.

Which parts of Bucks?

Andalusia (near Cornswell Heights) From the area you've descrived in the past, I bet we live near each other. Scary, isn't it?    (That's where I'm near)

Some trashy parts of Bucks include areas around Bristol. Sorry if you're from around there.

[bullmoose88]

I assume you could be easily moved into PA-8.

Right across the street though I'd prefer NE Philly to parts of Bucks.

Which parts of Bucks?

Andalusia (near Cornswell Heights) From the area you've descrived in the past, I bet we live near each other. Scary, isn't it?    (That's where I'm near)

Some trashy parts of Bucks include areas around Bristol. Sorry if you're from around there.

Heh...Andalusia ? I've never heard of that...Bristol's eh...some decent parts of that town...its probably the most urban like area in the county...the real problem with bristol are all the smut shops on route 13 which isn't really Bristol, (the borough that is), but Bristol Township...


and nah...no offense taken, primarily because I don't live there...

[Keystone Phil]

I assume you could be easily moved into PA-8.

Right across the street though I'd prefer NE Philly to parts of Bucks.

Which parts of Bucks?

Andalusia (near Cornswell Heights) From the area you've descrived in the past, I bet we live near each other. Scary, isn't it?    (That's where I'm near)

Some trashy parts of Bucks include areas around Bristol. Sorry if you're from around there.

Heh...Andalusia ? I've never heard of that...

Ever hear of Cornswell Heights?

[J. J.]

I assume you could be easily moved into PA-8.

Right across the street though I'd prefer NE Philly to parts of Bucks.

Which parts of Bucks?

Andalusia (near Cornswell Heights) From the area you've descrived in the past, I bet we live near each other. Scary, isn't it?    (That's where I'm near)

Some trashy parts of Bucks include areas around Bristol. Sorry if you're from around there.

Heh...Andalusia ? I've never heard of that...

Ever hear of Cornswell Heights?

Yes, unfortunately; it's not my favorite area.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, unfortunately; it's not my favorite area.

That's around my area of the Northeast.

[bullmoose88]

Thats basically Bensalem or what Bensalem used to be called...that area isn't entirely bad...at least where my high school was.

[J. J.]

Yes, unfortunately; it's not my favorite area.

That's around my area of the Northeast.

I was just up there two weekends ago.  I have a friend from college that lives off Route 1 just by the Nessimany Motel.  She loves it (and she grew up in North Philly). 

I just like a city environment much better.

[Keystone Phil]

Thats basically Bensalem or what Bensalem used to be called...that area isn't entirely bad...at least where my high school was.

I don't frequent Bensalem all that much but I have a good amount of classmates from the area. They see it as a ghetto but it's not all that bad. I definetley prefer the Northeast.