Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Presidential runoff on May 22 ?
#1
Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
#2
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
#3
I'd invalidate the ballot
#4
I'd stay home
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)  (Read 288412 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #450 on: April 24, 2016, 11:10:55 AM »
Quote from: Omega21 on April 24, 2016, 11:09:18 AM
How likely is it that Hofer wins the 2nd round?

I have no clue, at least we cannot trust the polls anymore ... Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #451 on: April 24, 2016, 11:13:16 AM »
4 states are soon fully counted.

In Salzburg, there's only 1 city left. In Upper Austria also just one (Linz), in Styria also just Graz left. And in Tyrol just 3.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #452 on: April 24, 2016, 11:23:39 AM »
Hofer wins every city/town in Salzburg state.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #453 on: April 24, 2016, 11:26:35 AM »
Quote from: Cranberry on April 24, 2016, 10:34:41 AM
Oh my.... This is incredibly sad, even disappointing - I would have thought that the Austrian population was at least slightly less racist, slightly less stupid.




lol
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #454 on: April 24, 2016, 11:28:20 AM »
ORF/SORA election day survey shows a huge gender gap:

http://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2016_Elections-Federal-President_Charts.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #455 on: April 24, 2016, 11:31:50 AM »
SPÖ and ÖVP are definitely the parties of the future:
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #456 on: April 24, 2016, 11:40:57 AM »
Griss (Indy) does not endorse either Hofer or VdB yet, when asked by the ORF guy.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #457 on: April 24, 2016, 11:45:13 AM »
Funny how St. Pölten (capital of Lower Austria) just last week voted with 59% for the SPÖ in the municipal elections, but now voted Hofer with 32% ... Hundstorfer (SPÖ) got 17%.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #458 on: April 24, 2016, 11:46:45 AM »
Van der Bellen (Greens) wins Innsbruck and Graz.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #459 on: April 24, 2016, 11:46:49 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2016, 11:51:48 AM by Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan »


Not shocking.
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jaichind
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« Reply #460 on: April 24, 2016, 11:49:35 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on April 24, 2016, 11:40:57 AM
Griss (Indy) does not endorse either Hofer or VdB yet, when asked by the ORF guy.
Does she concede defeat?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #461 on: April 24, 2016, 11:52:47 AM »
Quote from: jaichind on April 24, 2016, 11:49:35 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on April 24, 2016, 11:40:57 AM
Griss (Indy) does not endorse either Hofer or VdB yet, when asked by the ORF guy.
Does she concede defeat?

She did already, right after the ORF presented their new projection with Vienna precincts (which showed VdB with a big lead in the city).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #462 on: April 24, 2016, 11:53:33 AM »
The Kurier has a nice clickable map for all 2100 cities (Gemeinden), districts (Bezirke) and states (Bundesländer):

http://static.kurier.at/elections/bp16/?apaactualSection=apaMap&_ga=1.123543305.321062945.1461504611
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #463 on: April 24, 2016, 11:59:52 AM »
Only 1 city in Lower Austria and 4 districts in Vienna left until we have a final result for today.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #464 on: April 24, 2016, 12:03:58 PM »
Now just 1 precinct in Vienna and 1 city in Lower Austria left.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #465 on: April 24, 2016, 12:09:38 PM »
Vienna now fully counted:

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahlergebnis/en/BP161/index.html

Precinct map:

https://www.wien.gv.at/stadtplan/en/grafik.aspx?lang=en&bookmark=1gH-axNX9tUKvqxdHjp68RqVJ6h5lmnGmmkeu25v6MZj6Cg-b-b
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jaichind
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« Reply #466 on: April 24, 2016, 12:11:27 PM »
Interesting that Hofer slightly under-performed his exit polls numbers.  One would expect him to over-perform.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #467 on: April 24, 2016, 12:13:53 PM »
Come on, Hennersdorf. Get your act together and release your votes.

The last of 2.100 cities.

Hennersdorf means something like "Chicken Village" ... Wink
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jaichind
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« Reply #468 on: April 24, 2016, 12:14:09 PM »
In retrospect ÖVP should have worked out a deal with SPÖ to present a joint candidate.  They could have perhaps moved into second place and then beat Hofer in the second round.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #469 on: April 24, 2016, 12:15:48 PM »
Quote from: jaichind on April 24, 2016, 12:11:27 PM
Interesting that Hofer slightly under-performed his exit polls numbers.  One would expect him to over-perform.

It's always like this: SORA/ORF are making their 1st projection based on already counted rural cities, but they have no precincts available from big cities.

So, Hofer/FPÖ does well in the initial projection because he's stronger in the rural areas.
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Figueira
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« Reply #470 on: April 24, 2016, 12:35:16 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on April 24, 2016, 11:31:50 AM
SPÖ and ÖVP are definitely the parties of the future:



I had forgotten that Austria has a reasonable voting age. Freedom country!

(Horrible badly-named party in first place this time, though.)
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jaichind
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« Reply #471 on: April 24, 2016, 12:37:47 PM »
Only poll I can find on second round was from early april

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Van-der-Bellen-nur-knapp-vor-Hofer/230748681

Which had

Hofer (FPÖ)                         23  
Van der Bellen (Greens)       26
Griss (Indy)                         21

and had for second round Hofer vs Van der Bellen

Hofer (FPÖ)                         48  
Van der Bellen (Greens)       52

If so then Hofer has a good 50/50 shot if not better at winning based on this poll.  My sense is that he should be the underdog.  Him coming in so strong on the first round will most likely scare passive center-left voters to come out in the second round to vote in large numbers.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
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« Reply #472 on: April 24, 2016, 12:38:37 PM »
As bad as this result is, I'm even more depressed that it is driven by younger people.  At least in the US, the far-right anti-immigrant sentiment is coming mainly from olds.
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Cranberry
TheCranberry
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« Reply #473 on: April 24, 2016, 12:43:40 PM »
Quote from: jaichind on April 24, 2016, 12:37:47 PM
If so then Hofer has a good 50/50 shot if not better at winning based on this poll.  My sense is that he should be the underdog.  Him coming in so strong on the first round will most likely scare passive center-left voters to come out in the second round to vote in large numbers.

From what I've seen on social media, exactly the opposite seems to be the case, i.e. it's mainly resignation and disappointment at the result.
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Figueira
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« Reply #474 on: April 24, 2016, 12:45:48 PM »
Quote from: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on April 24, 2016, 12:38:37 PM
As bad as this result is, I'm even more depressed that it is driven by younger people.  At least in the US, the far-right anti-immigrant sentiment is coming mainly from olds.

Young men, that is. Young women seem to be a lot more reasonable.
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