More bad news for IL Gov

[ill ind]

  This is one of those quiet sleeper toss-ups out there.  I don't think the media or most political observers have caught onto how much Blagoofovich is really disliked in the state.
  Truthfully, I can't call this one right now.  The guv definitely has an advantage in terms of money, but if the state Republican party nominates someone who is reasonably pallatable to middle of the road voters and manages to not self destruct before Nov 2006, then I think Rod-o is in for some serious trouble.  The Dems sure messed up electing this guy.  In my opinion Paul Vallas would have been a much much better governor.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  I believe that this race is wide open.  There are three things coming up that could determine it.

1.) Continuing investigation into the Balgojevich administration.  From now until Nov 2006 is an eternity in politics and who knows what scandal could be turned up that will toast the present gov.

2.) The upcoming George Ryan trial.  This September starts the corruption trial of former Republican governor George Ryan.  This surely will command some headlines in the Illinois media market and will surely remind voters why they tossed the GOP out of the governor's office after 26 years to begin with.  I doubt any new surprises will come out of this, but who knows.

3.) The uncanny ability for the Illinois GOP to shoot itself in the foot.  No one could have scripted or made up the craziness of the last election in the Illinois GOP.  In the first post, it is stated that the party is really focussed on recapturing the governor's chair.  This may be true, but we'll all see how much of that focus remains among conservatives, if a moderate is nominated and vise versa.

All in all it will be a interesting year to watch.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  Continuing on with what I wrote before:

I believe one of the big things that caused the Illinois GOP's self immolation in 2004 was the fact that in the open race for the Senate seat, in the primary you had 15 candidates between the two major parties, of which I bleive 8 were multi-millionares who had never held public office before.  The Democrats did not nominate one of these individuals--in fact Blair Hull who had dumped 10 million plus of his own money into the Democratic race self immolated before the primary when his divorce records came out.  The Republicans did nominate one of the millionares in Jack Ryan even though questions were already swirling about his previous divorce.  (Divorce records don't meand a big deal IMHO, but they become fodder in political races so that's why I'm mentioning them.)  This caused Ryan's campaign to implode after he was already the GOP nominee.

The reason that I bring this all up, is that the two already declared GOP candidates for governor are in the category of multimillionare with no previous political post held.  Granted Oberweiss has already run and lost twice statewide so he is somewhat of a known quantity.

I think if the Illinois GOP were smart, they'd do well to keep away from the multimillionare self-financing candidates who have never held political office.

Rod Blagojevich is a known quantity.  The Illinois GOP would be safer to face him with another known quantity, not some multimillionare who has never faced the scrutiny of running for public office before.

Ill Ind