More bad news for IL Gov

[muon2]

The combination of charges from Chicago Ald. Mell and scandal in the states main purchasing agency have led to grand jury subpoenas, as reported today by the Chicago Sun Times. The corruption charges are lapping at the Governor's door.

New poll numbers are on the front page of this morning's Chicago Tribune along with their report of the subpoenas. This mirrors the SUSA results from last week. The numbers have dropped, even in Democratic strongholds.

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Blagojevich is looking more vulnerable with each passing week.

[muon2]

Who was the last gov to not have a scandal in ill?

Jim Edgar is regarded to be scandal free. He did have a campaign contributor convicted of fraud and bribery, but none of it ever stuck to Edgar or his staff. His reputation is the reason his name is now be circulated in the media as a possible contender. The public really does want a candidate above the IL-politics-as-usual game.

[muon2]

Keyes might actually crack 30% against him!

I hope that's who they nominate...

Anyways I'm not worried about this. Oberwies (sp) isn't going to be able to pull off a win and neither is Topinka. And they are going to be the front runners, so no matter what Rod will win this.

I doubt the IL GOP will self-immolate this time. They are far more focussed after the 2004 thrashing. If a solid candidate comes through the primary, it will come down to turnout. There's a lot of Democratic discontent with the Gov. Right now, the question has to be who will work the turnout for Rod?

[muon2]

It's pretty clear that Illinoisans have grown dissatisfied with Blagojevich, the question is, as already stated, whether or not the Illinois Republicans will be able to pull them selves together, otherwise Blagojevich will win a second term. It seems like the land of Lincoln has more or less become the land of the democrats.

Welcome to the forum. How long were you in Geneva?

[muon2]

Here's another poll result as quoted by Rich Miller of the Capitol Fax:

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[muon2]

I haven't given this race that much attention but recently, I've started noticing how these Midwest Gubernatorial elections (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan) might end up being GOP pickups along with the possibility of Illinois. I've also noticed the amount of Republican candidates who are risking their careers (LaHood, Topinka, Rauschenberger) to run for this office. I never though Blagojevich would be in this much trouble.

Is he really that vulnerable or is it a PA situation (where the right candidate is needed to make it a close race)?

The national media has generally missed the level of dissatisfaction felt here in IL. Part was due to excellent media control during the first couple of years of this administration, but the lack of substance is wearing thin. It's not merely my political bias, many Dems in the state would like a better candidate, as witnessed in this quote:

I really hope our Comp runs against Rod...

Even so, it's a difficult pick up. The state GOP is still recovering from the disasters of the last few years. If the party becomes united around a winning candidate, and there is no big issue to motivate voters in Chicago, the contest could get tight.

[muon2]

What about Rahm Emanuel??
I really don't know much about Illinois politics, but as an outsider Emanuel could sound somewhat attractive; and I guess he would have the full support of the Clintons? Which is Emanuel's district?
Comments? (I really don't have much idea).

Emanuel seems to be concentrating efforts on the IL Cong. delegation. His IL-5 seat is safe on the NW side of Chicago (Rostenkowski's old district, and where I was born) into the Cook suburbs south of O'Hare. He's trying to help Bean hold her seat in IL-8, for instance. His background is not strong in IL politics outside of Chicago.

[muon2]

Who just recently announced their candidacy. Oberwies and some other guy...who was he.

Ron Gidwitz announced recently. He is a former chairman of the state Board of Education and former president and CEO of Helene Curtis.

I spent this morning in the major parade of our area. A number of the Republican gubernatorial hopefuls were on hand for the walk. In addition to Gidwitz and Oberweis, there were Rauschenberger, LaHood, Brady and Birkett. Rauschenberger was in a smaller parade with me yesterday as well.

[muon2]

Survey USA has Rod mired in the upper 30% range for approval with their July release.

There has been little change since May:

May: 36-54 approve-disapprove
June:  37-56 approve-disapprove
July: 38-55 approve-disapprove

Democrats only favor him 55-36%, and even Hispanics are disapproving 54-39%. Various IL blogs are full of Dems begging for a primary challenge, but no one wants to step in against the Guv's war chest.

[muon2]

I heard that Jimmy is actually considering a run for Gov.

I really hope he does so I don't feel like I was forced to vote for Roddy.

It's been rumored that Topinka hadn't announced yet waiting for a potential announment from Edgar. The Chicago Sun Times reports similar talk yesterday from LaHood.

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