Top 5 biggest game changer events in the GOP primary so far?

[weixiaobao]

What do you think is the top 5 biggest game changer events in the GOP primary so far?  Ignore, how they kinda undo each others but yeah.

[Mr. Reactionary]

These are the top 5 things which have happened that have let me know that this race is unusual and unpredictable.

In no particular order

Jeb Bush defends Iraq War on Megyn Kelly.
Scott Walker unceremoniously Drops Out.
First Poll with Carson + Trump combined over 50%.
Donald Trump gains in polls after telling Megyn Kelly she was on her period.
Ted Cruz standing next to Trump like a fanboy hoping for scraps.

[/]

1. Trump
2. Trump
3. Trump
4. Donald
5. Trump

[Enduro]

Trump & Carson rise
Walker drop out
Paul fall
Fiorina in the second debate
Trump vs Kelly


These aren't in order

[Angel of Death]

Rubio surpassing Bush in both the polls and the betting markets.

[eric82oslo]

Trump calling latino immigrants for rapists and killers
Trump's war against Fox News
Trump calling Jeb! "low energy"
Trump saying he would like/wouldn't mind paying more in taxes
Trump claiming that he will do extremely well with latino voters

These are just some of the things coming to my mind right now, though I'm not saying these are the most important events lol.

Obviously, Walker dropping to 0% in the polls and subsecuently dropping out should be high on the list as well, especially as he got the backing from the powerful Koch brothers and even 538/Nate Silver once claimed that Walker had just as big of a chance to win the election as Bush did, approximately 25% chance for each.
25 million viewers for a presidential debate obviously is also a game changing event, as is the 24/7 coverage of Trump on most channels and on CNN in particular.
Oh, and Romney unexpectedly dropping out of the race before it even started, despite being the huge favourite to win it after Christie's fall due to Bridgegate, and Republicans, including Fox News, almost begging Romney to enter by launching a huge campaign (Fox News was almost a propaganda channel for Romney for a few weeks last winter).
Finally the fact that Bush raised more than 100 million dollars in the first quarter alone. 115 million wasn't it? (Including SuperPACs that is of course.)

[Crumpets]

1. Bridgegate - yes it was a while ago, but it clearly changed  the dynamic of the race dramatically.
2. Trump's insane announcement bounce + "rapists and murderers"
3. Trump not collapsing after saying McCain isn't a war hero.
4. Carson's huge bounce after the first debate in which he basically said and did nothing.
5. Fiorina making it into the top pack after the two debates and challenging "top" establishment candidates.

[weixiaobao]

Does anybody know when Rand Paul started to fall and was their any specific event that it tied with?

Was the last big thing associate with him earlier this year was his filibuster?

[Ebsy]

Does anybody know when Rand Paul started to fall and was their any specific event that it tied with?

Was the last big thing associate with him earlier this year was his filibuster?

It's more like he's been steadily suffocated by his depressing mediocrity.

[Lyin' Steve]

1. Bridgegate - yes it was a while ago, but it clearly changed  the dynamic of the race dramatically.

Good call here.  You could really think of that as maybe being the first event of this season -- when Halperin and Heilemann write Game Change 2016 I bet that's one of the earliest chapters (Clinton's machinations have probably extended back to 2008).  And it's a monster because Christie had a solid 20-30% and all the establishment power, and suddenly his career was demolished.

[Crumpets]

If I may throw another one out there - what about Rubio's state of the Union response? Looking at the Huffington Post average, the day of his response (February 13th, 2013) corresponds to Rubio's highest average poll score before or since. Even if he has recovered slightly in recent months, he's still nowhere like where he was before that.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary#!smoothing=less&estimate=custom

[Lyin' Steve]

If I may throw another one out there - what about Rubio's state of the Union response? Looking at the Huffington Post average, the day of his response (February 13th, 2013) corresponds to Rubio's highest average poll score before or since. Even if he has recovered slightly in recent months, he's still nowhere like where he was before that.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary#!smoothing=less&estimate=custom

I can beat this.  Bobby Jindal gave a miserable state of the union response in 2009 that was the beginning of the end for him.

Of course Rubio still feels the need to constantly remind us of his failed response by making lame jokes about water.

Anyone remember Bachmann's "alternative" state of the union response that had the production quality of an al-Qaeda hostage tape and her looking at the wrong camera the entire time?

[weixiaobao]

This thread is 2 months old.  So any changes?

[RI]

This recent Trump stuff probably clinched the nomination for him.

[Maxwell]

1. Trump announces, calls Mexicans "rapists".
2. Scott Walker drops out.
3. Trump responds to Megan Kelly's question with "Only Rosie O'Donnell". Rises in the polls.
4. Ted Cruz's anti-CNBC debate tirade.
5. Bush attempts to regain the establishment mantle from Rubio, fails remarkably

Two Trump things, and this is being generous to the other candidates.

[DC732]

1) Trump no collapsing after "He was captured" + everything else
2) Walker dropping out

Nothing else really. By December of 2011 we at least had the Herman Cain sex scandal.

[Maxwell]

I think people underestimate how big this moment is. I think this was the big moment when conservatives realized that Cruz is the real deal.

[Lief 🗽]

1. Trump Announcement Speech
2. Trump calling Jeb "low energy"
3. Trump's "That Face" Comment About Fiorina
4. Trump "Belt of Gold" Speech
5. Paris Attacks

[Ljube]

1. Trump Announcement Speech
2. Trump calling Jeb "low energy"
3. Trump's "That Face" Comment About Fiorina
4. Trump "Belt of Gold" Speech
5. Paris Attacks

[bballrox4717]

1. Bridgegate - Christie at his best probably could have challenged Trump
2. Trump's Announcement Speech - Set the tone for his campaign much more than anything else so far
3. Trump calls Jeb "low energy" - Completely wrecks Jeb as a frontrunner since he allowed Trump to define his candidacy
4: "You are only attacking me because someone convinced you it would help you" - Probably the moment that convinces establishment Republicans that Bush is unlikely to win and that Rubio is likely their best shot against Trump
5. Paris Attacks - The most important one right now because it resonates worldwide and it is the only event besides Trump's announcement that has changed every candidate's campaign

[Oakvale]

I have to agree with the consensus here. TRUMP literally ended Ben Carsons's campaign overnight and re-established his commanding lead in the polls with the instant classic "Belt of Gold" speech, so that has to be number one.

1. Belt of Gold speech
2. Trump destroying Jeb!'s campaign with a few Instagram videos
3. Establishment hacks desperately attempting to stump Trump by boosting Snarly Carly Sneed, failing miserably
4. Trump echoing what the Republican base truly want re: Muslims
5. Paris attacks

[Volrath50]

1. Trump entering the race,
2. Cruz' attack on the moderators at the CNBC debate
3. Rubio's evisceration of Jeb Bush at the CNBC debate
4. Carson's terrible week (pyramids, belt of gold, etc)
5. Bridgegate

Those seem to be the main things that have led us to the race as we have it today. Scott Walker's drop out wasn't really a "game changer" as he was at 2% at the time. Maybe his complete failure as a candidate might be the gamechanger there.

[Broken System]

In the order in which they happened.

1. Trump destroys Bush at Fox News debate.
2. Fiorina shines at CNN debate, people stop caring quickly.
3. Rubio and Cruz stand out at CNBC debate.
4. Carson vs Media week
5. GOP elite hold meeting

[tpfkaw]

1. Trump's announcement speech
2. Bridgegate
3. Cruz attacking moderators at CNBC debate
4. Paris and San Bernardino attacks
5. Carson says he wouldn't want a Muslim to be President