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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  More bad news for IL Gov
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Author Topic: More bad news for IL Gov  (Read 3222 times)
muon2
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« on: May 15, 2005, 02:44:37 pm »

The combination of charges from Chicago Ald. Mell and scandal in the states main purchasing agency have led to grand jury subpoenas, as reported today by the Chicago Sun Times. The corruption charges are lapping at the Governor's door.

New poll numbers are on the front page of this morning's Chicago Tribune along with their report of the subpoenas. This mirrors the SUSA results from last week. The numbers have dropped, even in Democratic strongholds.
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Blagojevich is looking more vulnerable with each passing week.
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Aunty Entity
texasgurl24
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2005, 02:48:01 pm »

Who was the last gov to not have a scandal in ill?
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muon2
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2005, 03:03:54 pm »

Who was the last gov to not have a scandal in ill?

Jim Edgar is regarded to be scandal free. He did have a campaign contributor convicted of fraud and bribery, but none of it ever stuck to Edgar or his staff. His reputation is the reason his name is now be circulated in the media as a possible contender. The public really does want a candidate above the IL-politics-as-usual game.
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King
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2005, 03:29:37 pm »

Between the Governors, Chicago Mayors, and the White Sox, Illinois is one corrupt bitch.
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FuturePrez R-AZ
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« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2005, 11:27:56 pm »

Keyes might actually crack 30% against him!
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BobOMac2k2
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« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2005, 09:55:40 pm »

Keyes might actually crack 30% against him!

I hope that's who they nominate...

Anyways I'm not worried about this. Oberwies (sp) isn't going to be able to pull off a win and neither is Topinka. And they are going to be the front runners, so no matter what Rod will win this.
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muon2
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« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2005, 10:59:27 pm »

Keyes might actually crack 30% against him!

I hope that's who they nominate...

Anyways I'm not worried about this. Oberwies (sp) isn't going to be able to pull off a win and neither is Topinka. And they are going to be the front runners, so no matter what Rod will win this.

I doubt the IL GOP will self-immolate this time. They are far more focussed after the 2004 thrashing. If a solid candidate comes through the primary, it will come down to turnout. There's a lot of Democratic discontent with the Gov. Right now, the question has to be who will work the turnout for Rod?
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TB
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« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2005, 01:35:06 pm »

It's pretty clear that Illinoisans have grown dissatisfied with Blagojevich, the question is, as already stated, whether or not the Illinois Republicans will be able to pull them selves together, otherwise Blagojevich will win a second term. It seems like the land of Lincoln has more or less become the land of the democrats.
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muon2
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« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2005, 03:57:03 pm »

It's pretty clear that Illinoisans have grown dissatisfied with Blagojevich, the question is, as already stated, whether or not the Illinois Republicans will be able to pull them selves together, otherwise Blagojevich will win a second term. It seems like the land of Lincoln has more or less become the land of the democrats.

Welcome to the forum. How long were you in Geneva?
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TB
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« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2005, 11:51:39 am »

Thanks. I lived in Geneva for a year. Itís an ok place. A very pretty town, but some of the people seemed kind of reserved. Batavia and St. Charles seemed a little more ďfunkyĒ, but overall I enjoyed living in Geneva.
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ill ind
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« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2005, 03:22:52 pm »

† This is one of those quiet sleeper toss-ups out there.† I don't think the media or most political observers have caught onto how much Blagoofovich is really disliked in the state.
† Truthfully, I can't call this one right now.† The guv definitely has an advantage in terms of money, but if the state Republican party nominates someone who is reasonably pallatable to middle of the road voters and manages to not self destruct before Nov 2006, then I think Rod-o is in for some serious trouble.  The Dems sure messed up electing this guy.  In my opinion Paul Vallas would have been a much much better governor.

Ill Ind
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BobOMac2k2
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« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2005, 02:04:38 am »

I really hope our Comp runs against Rod...
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muon2
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« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2005, 02:27:43 am »

Here's another poll result as quoted by Rich Miller of the Capitol Fax:

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #13 on: June 19, 2005, 02:36:50 am »

I haven't given this race that much attention but recently, I've started noticing how these Midwest Gubernatorial elections (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan) might end up being GOP pickups along with the possibility of Illinois. I've also noticed the amount of Republican candidates who are risking their careers (LaHood, Topinka, Rauschenberger) to run for this office. I never though Blagojevich would be in this much trouble.

Is he really that vulnerable or is it a PA situation (where the right candidate is needed to make it a close race)?
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muon2
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« Reply #14 on: June 19, 2005, 03:25:05 am »

I haven't given this race that much attention but recently, I've started noticing how these Midwest Gubernatorial elections (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan) might end up being GOP pickups along with the possibility of Illinois. I've also noticed the amount of Republican candidates who are risking their careers (LaHood, Topinka, Rauschenberger) to run for this office. I never though Blagojevich would be in this much trouble.

Is he really that vulnerable or is it a PA situation (where the right candidate is needed to make it a close race)?

The national media has generally missed the level of dissatisfaction felt here in IL. Part was due to excellent media control during the first couple of years of this administration, but the lack of substance is wearing thin. It's not merely my political bias, many Dems in the state would like a better candidate, as witnessed in this quote:
I really hope our Comp runs against Rod...

Even so, it's a difficult pick up. The state GOP is still recovering from the disasters of the last few years. If the party becomes united around a winning candidate, and there is no big issue to motivate voters in Chicago, the contest could get tight.
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ThePrezMex
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« Reply #15 on: June 20, 2005, 05:30:55 pm »

What about Rahm Emanuel??
I really don't know much about Illinois politics, but as an outsider Emanuel could sound somewhat attractive; and I guess he would have the full support of the Clintons? Which is Emanuel's district?
Comments? (I really don't have much idea).
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jfern
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« Reply #16 on: June 20, 2005, 05:36:13 pm »

Boring. In Ohio, there's a massive Coin scandal that seems to have given taxpayer money to the Bush campaign. Gray Davis looks popular compared to Governor Taft's 19-74 approval rating.
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muon2
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« Reply #17 on: June 20, 2005, 11:23:23 pm »

What about Rahm Emanuel??
I really don't know much about Illinois politics, but as an outsider Emanuel could sound somewhat attractive; and I guess he would have the full support of the Clintons? Which is Emanuel's district?
Comments? (I really don't have much idea).

Emanuel seems to be concentrating efforts on the IL Cong. delegation. His IL-5 seat is safe on the NW side of Chicago (Rostenkowski's old district, and where I was born) into the Cook suburbs south of O'Hare. He's trying to help Bean hold her seat in IL-8, for instance. His background is not strong in IL politics outside of Chicago.
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HamRadioRocks
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« Reply #18 on: June 21, 2005, 12:18:56 am »

I was born and raised in the Chicago area (Palos Hills).  I also lived in Palatine in 1997-2000.  It's been 5 years since I left, but I STILL know Illinois politics better than Virginia and Iowa politics.

I remember when Blagojevich was first elected as the Congressman of the 5th Congressional District and ended its two years of Republican representation.

This politically hampered Blagojevich you talk about sounds NOTHING like the Blagojevich I remember.  I remember him as the charismatic leader who was elected as the representative of the area where he had been delivering pizzas just a few years earlier.  Now he's sounding like Gray Davis or George Pataki.

Any chance of a Democratic primary challenge?  Remember that Carol Mosely Braun unseated Senator Alan Dixon in the 1992 primary.  If Blagojevich is so unpopular, perhaps another Democrat can replace him, rather than let the Republicans rise from the dead and pick up a governor's seat.
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BobOMac2k2
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« Reply #19 on: July 04, 2005, 04:36:41 pm »

Who just recently announced their candidacy. Oberwies and some other guy...who was he.
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muon2
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« Reply #20 on: July 04, 2005, 09:27:08 pm »

Who just recently announced their candidacy. Oberwies and some other guy...who was he.

Ron Gidwitz announced recently. He is a former chairman of the state Board of Education and former president and CEO of Helene Curtis.

I spent this morning in the major parade of our area. A number of the Republican gubernatorial hopefuls were on hand for the walk. In addition to Gidwitz and Oberweis, there were Rauschenberger, LaHood, Brady and Birkett. Rauschenberger was in a smaller parade with me yesterday as well.
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ill ind
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« Reply #21 on: July 05, 2005, 11:54:07 am »

  I believe that this race is wide open.  There are three things coming up that could determine it.

1.) Continuing investigation into the Balgojevich administration.  From now until Nov 2006 is an eternity in politics and who knows what scandal could be turned up that will toast the present gov.

2.) The upcoming George Ryan trial.  This September starts the corruption trial of former Republican governor George Ryan.  This surely will command some headlines in the Illinois media market and will surely remind voters why they tossed the GOP out of the governor's office after 26 years to begin with.  I doubt any new surprises will come out of this, but who knows.

3.) The uncanny ability for the Illinois GOP to shoot itself in the foot.  No one could have scripted or made up the craziness of the last election in the Illinois GOP.  In the first post, it is stated that the party is really focussed on recapturing the governor's chair.  This may be true, but we'll all see how much of that focus remains among conservatives, if a moderate is nominated and vise versa.

All in all it will be a interesting year to watch.

Ill Ind
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ill ind
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« Reply #22 on: July 05, 2005, 03:53:47 pm »

  Continuing on with what I wrote before:

I believe one of the big things that caused the Illinois GOP's self immolation in 2004 was the fact that in the open race for the Senate seat, in the primary you had 15 candidates between the two major parties, of which I bleive 8 were multi-millionares who had never held public office before.  The Democrats did not nominate one of these individuals--in fact Blair Hull who had dumped 10 million plus of his own money into the Democratic race self immolated before the primary when his divorce records came out.  The Republicans did nominate one of the millionares in Jack Ryan even though questions were already swirling about his previous divorce.  (Divorce records don't meand a big deal IMHO, but they become fodder in political races so that's why I'm mentioning them.)  This caused Ryan's campaign to implode after he was already the GOP nominee.

The reason that I bring this all up, is that the two already declared GOP candidates for governor are in the category of multimillionare with no previous political post held.  Granted Oberweiss has already run and lost twice statewide so he is somewhat of a known quantity.

I think if the Illinois GOP were smart, they'd do well to keep away from the multimillionare self-financing candidates who have never held political office.

Rod Blagojevich is a known quantity.  The Illinois GOP would be safer to face him with another known quantity, not some multimillionare who has never faced the scrutiny of running for public office before.

Ill Ind
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BobOMac2k2
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« Reply #23 on: July 07, 2005, 12:53:05 am »

GOP wants Jim Edgar. I really think that's the only way they can unseat Rod this round.
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muon2
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« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2005, 04:45:43 pm »

Survey USA has Rod mired in the upper 30% range for approval with their July release.

There has been little change since May:

May: 36-54 approve-disapprove
June:  37-56 approve-disapprove
July: 38-55 approve-disapprove

Democrats only favor him 55-36%, and even Hispanics are disapproving 54-39%. Various IL blogs are full of Dems begging for a primary challenge, but no one wants to step in against the Guv's war chest.
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