The circumtances where your state will become a tossup

[Crumpets]

Here are two scenarios:

1) The Democrats nominate someone who is a hard-core laborite, but very conservative on social issues. He personally opposes gay marriage, but says it is the "law of the land," and attends church more than once a week. He talks about America losing it's "Judeo-Christian" ideal as the main reason to grow government programs and help the poor. Kind of an American version of Pope Francis, but with strong union backing and with a louder dog whistle.

Meanwhile, the Republicans nominate a moderate libertarian in the Gary Johnson mold. It would help if this person were a minority or a woman. They support full legalization of marijuana, the dismantling of the current prison system, and push for cutting the deficit by shrinking the government's relationship with the so-called "military industrial complex." The Republicans generally put social issues to the side for the election, except to call out the Democrat for some particularly nasty jabs at non-Christians. Realizing they might put the Northwest in play, they also call for some modest environmental reforms.

Final map:

Senator Frank Wallace (D-KY) 327 EV
Governor Olympia Sandoval (R-OR) 199 EV

Scenario 2)

Hillary Clinton gets elected in 2016 and has a terrible first term. The economy crashes, the US suffers the worst terrorist attack since 9/11, and race relations are at the worst level since the 60s. An up-and-coming progressive challenges her in the primary, and loses narrowly. Claiming the party rigged the election against him (and with some evidence to prove that they did) he decides not to drop out, and eventually becomes the main challenger, as Hillary's approval ratings hover in the mid-20s. Garnering the endorsements of many elected Democrats, he runs as a TR/La Follette-style populist progressive. In the end, The Republicans win in a 1912-style landslide, with Clinton taking about 20% of the vote.

Final map:

Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) 392 EV
Congressman Theodore La Follette (P-ME) 117 EV
President Hillary Clinton (D-NY) 17 EV

[pbrower2a]

Michigan --

(1) right-wing religious revival takes hold and shifts some votes from D to R. Basically if one wants to support God one must support Republicans.

(2) economic meltdown, diplomatic/military disaster

(3) mass migration of people from the Mountain or Deep South, basically an inverse of what has happened in Virginia.

Unless one of those represents a national trend, Michigan votes for the Republican nominee for President if the country splits about 53-47 R.

[NeverAgain]

Republicans moderate a hair.

[Sir Mohamed]

California never becomes a tossup in presidential races. However, I can see moderate GOPers being elected at the state level. Arnie is a great example. Somebody like Faulconer might be competative in a gubernatorial contest.

[Kingpoleon]

California never becomes a tossup in presidential races. However, I can see moderate GOPers being elected at the state level. Arnie is a great example. Somebody like Faulconer might be competative in a gubernatorial contest.

In a Clinton mid-term, do you think Faulconer could beat Newsom or Feinstein better?

[RCRFan3]

In order for Texas to become a tossup, either:
A. The Republican Party has a disaster year.
B. Hispanic turnout is through the roof.
C. A highly popular Texas Democrat wins nomination.

[Kingpoleon]

In order for Texas to become a tossup, either:
A. The Republican Party has a disaster year.
B. Hispanic turnout is through the roof.
C. A highly popular Texas Democrat wins nomination.

2020: Gov. Lloyd Doggett/Sen. Catherine Cortez Mastro v. Pres. Donald Trump?

[RCRFan3]

In order for Texas to become a tossup, either:
A. The Republican Party has a disaster year.
B. Hispanic turnout is through the roof.
C. A highly popular Texas Democrat wins nomination.

2020: Gov. Lloyd Doggett/Sen. Catherine Cortez Mastro v. Pres. Donald Trump?

That could be possible. But Doggett would have to beat Abbott in 2018 and that seems unlikely. Castro would be a better option.

[Mr. Smith]

Main State:

Is a swing state, slightly Democratic though

Childhood State (and current avvie):

Some random LaRouche-ite becomes the Democratic nominee....even that is a stretch.

[VPH]

Kansas
1. Donald Trump runs as an independent, GOP nominee runs a god-awful gaffe-filled campaign with a terrible VP while Hillary Clinton performs fantastically.
2. Amnesty passes, 16 y/o's get the vote, and both youth and Hispanic turnout skyrocket.
3. Somebody travels back in time to 2007 and makes Kathleen Sebelius Obama's VP. Then, Mitt Romney is nominated, and as the economy goes into complete freefall and Sarah Palin's gaffes harm her, the GOP is left completely out of touch. Ron Paul runs as a Libertarian with Jesse Ventura and polls quite decently.
4. Paul Davis wins 2014 gubernatorial election, wins reelection in 2018, and runs for president in 2020.

Alabama (Used to live there)
1. Not happening.

[/]

In order for Texas to become a tossup, either:
A. The Republican Party has a disaster year.
B. Hispanic turnout is through the roof.
C. A highly popular Texas Democrat wins nomination.

2020: Gov. Lloyd Doggett/Sen. Catherine Cortez Mastro v. Pres. Donald Trump?

Masto is kind of from Nevada.

[NeverAgain]

In order for Texas to become a tossup, either:
A. The Republican Party has a disaster year.
B. Hispanic turnout is through the roof.
C. A highly popular Texas Democrat wins nomination.

2020: Gov. Lloyd Doggett/Sen. Catherine Cortez Mastro v. Pres. Donald Trump?

Masto is kind of from Nevada.

I believe the ticket is trying to attempt to court the Latino vote, so that would be her purpose on there. Not sure, though.

[Mr. Illini]

The incumbent southern white Democratic President has <25% approvals and the Republicans nominate a northern moderate independent-minded champion from the Chicago suburbs.

[tschandler]

Alabama - There isn't a Republican or Libertarian candidate in the race.  Or Nick Saban ran for President as a Democrat.

[Kingpoleon]

In order for Texas to become a tossup, either:
A. The Republican Party has a disaster year.
B. Hispanic turnout is through the roof.
C. A highly popular Texas Democrat wins nomination.

2020: Gov. Lloyd Doggett/Sen. Catherine Cortez Mastro v. Pres. Donald Trump?

That could be possible. But Doggett would have to beat Abbott in 2018 and that seems unlikely. Castro would be a better option.

Wouldn't a Doggett-Castro ticket beat him with Trump as President?

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

For PA the GOP would have to win by 3 to have a chance at it, but possibly by 8. It's not out of range but even Mobdale and Dukakis were competitive here. Nowadays we'd have to win by a couple points at least.

[Mike Thick]

2008: Eligible and scandal-free Arnold vs. Dennis Kucinich with no Iraq or financial crisis and sky-high Bush approvals. Even then, it would probably lean a bit Democratic.

In other words, it isn't happening anytime soon.

[This account no longer in use.]

Massachusetts: Charlie Baker runs against Elizabeth Warren and/or Deval Patrick.

[Virginiá]

Florida: In the event an election is held in Florida with more than one candidate, I could see it being a tossup.

[5280]

Arizona: It becomes more like Colorado in voting and demographics.

[Young Conservative]

mine is THE swing state lol

[Clark Kent]

mine is THE swing state lol

For a swing state, Florida is still pretty Republican. I'd give that honor to Ohio, and in 2012, Virginia voted almost identically to the nation as a whole.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

mine is THE swing state lol

For a swing state, Florida is still pretty Republican. I'd give that honor to Ohio, and in 2012, Virginia voted almost identically to the nation as a whole.

Florida hasn't been center left since 1976 with the Carter wave.  The last time it was truly center-left was in 1948.  None of us were born then so to say Florida would vote Democrat unless the Democrats win is bogus.  It likely will vote for the winner though. 

[Young Conservative]

mine is THE swing state lol

For a swing state, Florida is still pretty Republican. I'd give that honor to Ohio, and in 2012, Virginia voted almost identically to the nation as a whole.

Florida hasn't been center left since 1976 with the Carter wave.  The last time it was truly center-left was in 1948.  None of us were born then so to say Florida would vote Democrat unless the Democrats win is bogus.  It likely will vote for the winner though. 

I agree it leans right

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

mine is THE swing state lol

For a swing state, Florida is still pretty Republican. I'd give that honor to Ohio, and in 2012, Virginia voted almost identically to the nation as a whole.

Florida hasn't been center left since 1976 with the Carter wave.  The last time it was truly center-left was in 1948.  None of us were born then so to say Florida would vote Democrat unless the Democrats win is bogus.  It likely will vote for the winner though. 

I agree it leans right

Let's make a thread about this!